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dr_martinov View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dr_martinov Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 July 2018 at 11:39am
Originally posted by GPR - Rochester GPR - Rochester wrote:

Originally posted by dr_martinov dr_martinov wrote:

Originally posted by GPR - Rochester GPR - Rochester wrote:

Its a pretty simple equation really. For Brexit to mean Brexit then we have to have an end to open borders, an end to the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice & an end to contributing £8-10 billion per annum to the EU trough. If May reaches an agreement without any of these she will have failed. Davis and Johnson had no choices but to resign if they did not agree with her position. 

She remains adamant that her plan will deliver as promised; one thing is certain with Davis & Johnson on the back benches she will be called out if she fails. 


The brexit vote was only "to leave the EU" though; the rest is your personal opinion on specifics. Nothing offered by those leading the Brexit campaign was guaranteed as they had low or even no political power in our government (something that seems to be forgotten). Basically, I'm saying nobody knew what brexit actually would mean, which was one of the criticisms of the vote being a reaction against something rather than for a definitive new option.

Brexit was to leave the EU and we will, so it is already a success. This vote had no say in how this is done or deals made until the next general election, which I sure will be based primarily on post-brexit strategy.


Theresa May has consistently stated that Brexit means leaving the open borders, ending paying into the EU fund and regaining control of our laws/lawmaking. She still today quotes this as meaning Brexit.

I have always understood that leaving the EU would mean all these things. If it didn't what was the point in the referendum in the first place. ?

Ah now you're talking sense. Wink

My point remains: the Brexit vote was to leave the EU, not how it would be implemented or even what terms. There was no clear vision of what post-Brexit would actually entail presented, perhaps because it would have been too complicated for a campaign and no-one wants to hear "it'll be a tough first few years", and I am guessing many of those voted leave had different ideas about what it would mean and have put their own personalised visions on top of the reality.

I am actually still struggling to find the basis for these resignations by Davis and Boris: the media stories are focusing too much upon personalities and "turmoil in May's cabinet". If you read the document it explicitly states the following, which I think provide all you want:

"the position we reached today would:

...mean that the UK will leave the Common Agricultural Policy and Common Fisheries Policy....

...deliver an independent trade policy....

...ensure that in the future all laws in the UK would be legislated for by Parliament and the Devolved Administrations and subject to proper oversight and scrutiny...

...restore the supremacy of UK courts...

...end free movement...

...end vast annual payments to the EU budget"


So how does this constitute a semi-Brexit? Seems pretty Brexity to me. I can only think different people mean slightly different things by brexit and are willing to strop over not getting their way. The results of the referendum ("do you want to stay in the EU?") do NOT determine which of those opinions is correct, which seems to be how some people are acting. What determines the outcome is those we have elected to represent us in power and "us" includes the views of those who voted "no" to the above question and also should include the fact there are multiple positions for the country to take after it has left the EU on a wide range of issues.

I think it's fair to say no-one really knows what's going on behind the scenes and it feels as though it's just a Tory internal power-struggle at present. It's also clear nobody had a clue how to implement and oversee a result to leave the EU let alone what that would mean. The people who led the campaign are quite happy to simply run away from their responsibility (e.g. Boris) or never had any in the first place (Farrage); a position where it's easy to criticise the existing system.


Edited by dr_martinov - 10 July 2018 at 11:51am
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roy munster View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roy munster Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 July 2018 at 11:52am
Weve agreed a brexit divorce bill too , I think it was £39 billion at the last count. The EU will probably want an annual fee too for us to have tariff free trade on goods and services.  The services seems to be a massive sticking point as its 80% of our economy. That annual fee will need to be significantly less than the current £8 to £10 billion a year. She wants an end to open borders with exceptions to be made for millions of people already living here and I cannot ever recall the EU even hinting at a compromise on open borders. It seems we're signing up to competition state aid rules which means an end to any dreams of renationalising or subsidising sectors like steel. This is another area where corbyns stance bemuses me. He wants to renationalise or subsidise steel trains utilities, yet the EU rules on state aid seem to prevent this ? We say we're leaving agriculture and fisheries policies. 
Has anyone actually read May's plan?

The trickiest part of this is that the EU has not yet entered negotiations so we have been left to argue amongst ourselves. The EU have done nothing but watch on in bemusement. I can see boris point in one sense. At least go into negotiations with high ambitions and a fall back plan. Then the haggling will no doubt continue for aeons
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote GPR - Rochester Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 July 2018 at 12:18pm
As usual the devil is in the detail. Someone has got it wrong either May or Boris/Davis. One thing is certain our very poor negotiating tactics have handed the EU negotiators a hell of a head start. I feel that in trying to anticipate the EU's position we may have given away too much ground which could well lead to us walking away with no deal. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roy munster Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 July 2018 at 12:49pm
Originally posted by GPR - Rochester GPR - Rochester wrote:

As usual the devil is in the detail. Someone has got it wrong either May or Boris/Davis. One thing is certain our very poor negotiating tactics have handed the EU negotiators a hell of a head start. I feel that in trying to anticipate the EU's position we may have given away too much ground which could well lead to us walking away with no deal. 

indeed its a poor negotiation strategy. I feel the likes of chukka umuna and others are talking down no deal when the reality is there must be a no deal option on the table. In effect these mps are weakening our negotiating position before it even starts
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote GPR - Rochester Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 July 2018 at 1:05pm
Even at this late stage May is risking a deal being scuppered by her back benchers. I just wish at the outset of negotiations she had assembled some business nous to head up the team.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote SospanMawr Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 July 2018 at 2:44pm
GPR / Roy. Know we’ve had our disagreements on this thread etc but I have a genuine question here not as a wind up but out of genuine curiosity.

Is there a point in all of this mess where you think Brexit isn’t worth it, and we’re better off Remaining? Or is it out at any cost?

Again just want a debate.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 July 2018 at 4:18pm
Jumping in (!) as I’ve asked this question to other leave voters;

Some of the clinchers were;
If the U.K. can’t sign independent trade deals with other countries (THE long term economic benefit)
if Scotland opted to leave the UK in order to remain in EU
Likewise Northern Ireland (though many Leave voters seem less fussed about this)
If somehow U.K. law became supreme to EU law within U.K., whist remaining in EU (likely impossible)
if EU dissolved the parliament and commission then many would say we could remain in whatever institution was left

Likewise, the counter factual to Remain voters is also interesting: what would the EU have to do for you to say it’s not a club worth staying in?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roy munster Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 July 2018 at 7:18pm
[QUOTE=SospanMawr]GPR / Roy. Know we’ve had our disagreements on this thread etc but I have a genuine question here not as a wind up but out of genuine curiosity.

Is there a point in all of this mess where you think Brexit isn’t worth it, and we’re better off Remaining? Or is it out at any cost?

Again just want a debate.[/QUOTe)


I agree its hard to decide if we're worse off with the useless politicians in westminster and cardiff bay or those in brussels

Whatever happens, thank heavens we kept the pound

Heres why major kept the pound

We were very concerned that there wouldn't be convergence, by which piece of jargon we meant that the southern European states wouldn't be able to compete with Germany within a single currency on a level basis. Of course in 1991 Germany was still unifying; but we looked forward to when she'd have a much more powerful economy and ask ourselves whether the southern states would compete. We didn't think so, and we thought that would be chaotic.

The second reason was that we thought having a unification of monetary policy without a unification of fiscal policy would be likely to end in difficulties. We thought countries wouldn't control their deficits in essence and that's exactly what happened. We tried to cover that – a British suggestion by proposing in the Maastricht Treaty that no country should have a fiscal deficit above 3% of GDP. That was agreed, but alas it wasn't kept to. Germany broke that, France broke that everybody else broke it and then you got huge debt beginning to build up.

The real crisis period where this occurred was between 1999 when the Eurostarted. It actually started in the wrong circumstances because the pre-conditions we had [agreed] at Maastricht weren't met. But between 1997 and 2007 public deficits swelled, public debts swelled. Private debts swelled there was no regulation to control it. And the governments in power then have passed a very bleak legacy onto their successors.


and ed balls in the early 1990s before he was in government said - "


If countries are affected differently by an economic event – such as an oil shock or German unification – then the desired policy response will not be the same. Tying countries together under these circumstances means large and persistent regional problems – slow growth and high unemployment in different European countries, precisely what has occurred in Europe since German unification.

n short, monetary union, in the manner and timetable envisaged in the [1991 Maastricht] treaty, is an economically and politically misconceived project. Imposing the same monetary policy on the whole of Europe, without automatic fiscal stabilisers, would mean persistent regional growth and unemployment differentials within the Community, with all the political and social dislocation that brings. Already, Europe is plagued by right-wing nationalism and opposition to the European project as a result of the slow growth and high unemployment that the inflexible version of the ERM has brought.

The mistake is to let economic schemes run ahead of political realities. The goal of a single European currency, like an ever closer union, is not inherently misconceived. But to work, it requires a much closer degree of social and political cohesion and integration than Europe is likely to achieve in this decade or probably the next too.





Edited by roy munster - 10 July 2018 at 7:20pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roy munster Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 July 2018 at 7:35pm
In its current state, The EU is just too vast, too burocratic, too lovely, too inflexible, too self-serving, too unaccountable to ever work for the masses...When things get too vast , things go wrong,  things get covered up, things get lost in the system....Even in the nhs the biggest public employer in the world, where 99.9% of people in it have the best of intentions, but the end results are not always close to what we want or expect. Hence we see neglect and abuse , cover ups and somehow saw us ending up with the uncleanest hospitals in europe during the past 20 years...The road to hell is paved with good intentions.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote GPR - Rochester Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 July 2018 at 9:25am
Originally posted by SospanMawr SospanMawr wrote:

GPR / Roy. Know we’ve had our disagreements on this thread etc but I have a genuine question here not as a wind up but out of genuine curiosity.

Is there a point in all of this mess where you think Brexit isn’t worth it, and we’re better off Remaining? Or is it out at any cost?

Again just want a debate.

A very fair question. Again from my personal perspective there are 3 things which define Brexit :-

1. No ongoing contributions to the EU;
2. An end to free movement;
3. An end to the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.

If any of the above are fudged and not adhered to then I am afraid Theresa May will have been proven to have lied to the British public throughout this process. It does appear that her call for an election thereby reducing her majority has left her prone to trying to keep too many within her party happy & reducing her ability to lead. 

She has been clear all along that Brexit means Brexit - closed borders, no more funds, control of our laws/lawmaking, leaving the single market & customs union. If she fails to deliver on these then I think the people should have another say.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dr_martinov Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 July 2018 at 10:05am
Originally posted by GPR - Rochester GPR - Rochester wrote:

She has been clear all along that Brexit means Brexit - closed borders, no more funds, control of our laws/lawmaking, leaving the single market & customs union. If she fails to deliver on these then I think the people should have another say.  

All of which are clearly specified within the recent Chequers document as what the Government wants to achieve: I have posted the link above and it's all there in it's depressing detail. So what on earth are people moaning - and resigning - about? It's just political posturing and preparation for the inevitable power struggle: another vote of no-confidence resulting in a Tory leadership challenge and probably general election. Rees-Mogg, Davis, Johnson or Gove would divide the country even further, as probably would Corbyn. An election between those, all of which are anti-EU, would at least provide some genuine choice and decisions for the public based on actually policies (he says hopefully....), although I suspect I can guess which side would win.


Edited by dr_martinov - 11 July 2018 at 10:06am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote GPR - Rochester Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 July 2018 at 10:30am
Originally posted by dr_martinov dr_martinov wrote:

Originally posted by GPR - Rochester GPR - Rochester wrote:

She has been clear all along that Brexit means Brexit - closed borders, no more funds, control of our laws/lawmaking, leaving the single market & customs union. If she fails to deliver on these then I think the people should have another say.  

All of which are clearly specified within the recent Chequers document as what the Government wants to achieve: I have posted the link above and it's all there in it's depressing detail. So what on earth are people moaning - and resigning - about? It's just political posturing and preparation for the inevitable power struggle: another vote of no-confidence resulting in a Tory leadership challenge and probably general election. Rees-Mogg, Davis, Johnson or Gove would divide the country even further, as probably would Corbyn. An election between those, all of which are anti-EU, would at least provide some genuine choice and decisions for the public based on actually policies (he says hopefully....), although I suspect I can guess which side would win.

I take your point Dr. M. It appears that the devil is definitely as they say in the detail. On the face of it she is delivering a Brexit which I understand. From what I have heard from Davis & Boris they seem to believe that we are giving away too much on day 1 which does not allow any wriggle room when the EU negotiators come back for more concessions which they inevitably will. Davis is on record as saying we should be taking a harder stance. Maybe May's white paper may be presented as a take it or leave it position not open to much negotiation. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote GPR - Rochester Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 July 2018 at 11:56am
It appears that Airbus are softening their position now :-


Tonight at a German Chamber of Commerce event in London, our CEO T. Enders said: “The Chequers statement appears to show that HM Government are going in the right direction.We are not shy to request that Brussels & our other home countries are similarly pragmatic & fair”

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dr_martinov Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 July 2018 at 10:52am
Originally posted by GPR - Rochester GPR - Rochester wrote:

Originally posted by dr_martinov dr_martinov wrote:

Originally posted by GPR - Rochester GPR - Rochester wrote:

She has been clear all along that Brexit means Brexit - closed borders, no more funds, control of our laws/lawmaking, leaving the single market & customs union. If she fails to deliver on these then I think the people should have another say.  

All of which are clearly specified within the recent Chequers document as what the Government wants to achieve: I have posted the link above and it's all there in it's depressing detail. So what on earth are people moaning - and resigning - about? It's just political posturing and preparation for the inevitable power struggle: another vote of no-confidence resulting in a Tory leadership challenge and probably general election. Rees-Mogg, Davis, Johnson or Gove would divide the country even further, as probably would Corbyn. An election between those, all of which are anti-EU, would at least provide some genuine choice and decisions for the public based on actually policies (he says hopefully....), although I suspect I can guess which side would win.

I take your point Dr. M. It appears that the devil is definitely as they say in the detail. On the face of it she is delivering a Brexit which I understand. From what I have heard from Davis & Boris they seem to believe that we are giving away too much on day 1 which does not allow any wriggle room when the EU negotiators come back for more concessions which they inevitably will. Davis is on record as saying we should be taking a harder stance. Maybe May's white paper may be presented as a take it or leave it position not open to much negotiation. 

People who voted for Brexit can say all they want what they wished to achieve, but the only guarantee was us leaving the EU, which will happen. Sure, the government can be held responsible for failing to get the "best" deal for Britain (which is in itself subjective) but people seem to think they can get whatever they want post-Brexit without any compromise and the EU would have to accept whatever deals we demanded, which is naive and arrogant in my opinion. This pipe-dream formed the basis of the Leave campaign run by populist fringe politicians and will leave many who voted that way disappointed, and I suspect many are getting frustrated seeing just how complex proceedings are at present. That disappointment and frustration will in itself be utilised and exploited by opportunistic politicians in the next round of power struggles who can simply blame the previous regime, as standard.

"Brexit fatigue" is also going to become a very big issue; it seems never-ending! I know I started the thread, in part to attempt to understand what the hell is going on and think about the future a bit more, but I am very tired and fed up of it, which isn't helped by the media-bait Tory infighting and high level of media attention over ever dot and comma. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Ffidel Bennett Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 July 2018 at 12:47pm
The EU is a Neo-con or Neo-liberal organisation (as far as I can see there is very little difference) Both believe in allowing the rich to move their money or capital, to wherever they can make the biggest profit, with little regard for the welfare of those they employ. Or if they can't be  bothered to build new factories elsewhere bring in other staff who will work for less and therefore put pressure on the original staff to work for longer, for less, or in less healthy circumstances.
There is now talk of starting EU armed forces, who will, of course, be intervening (bombing) countries with resources that our ruling classes want, or who are showing resistance to their neo-liberal plans. Of course they will cover up their real aims with hypocritical claims of protecting human rights/democracy etc, but always placing their people in power after they have killed tens of thousands and destroyed civil society. 
This is not to say that the  Westminster regime has not been doing this for centuries, but at least we can theoretically vote to remove those responsible (if we can see through the media's obfuscation and lies) and there are signs that Corbyn could play a different role if we give him the chance.
I can't see why anyone who is a socialist can have any regrets on the demise of the EU
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roy munster Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 July 2018 at 2:03pm
Originally posted by Ffidel Bennett Ffidel Bennett wrote:

The EU is a Neo-con or Neo-liberal organisation (as far as I can see there is very little difference) Both believe in allowing the rich to move their money or capital, to wherever they can make the biggest profit, with little regard for the welfare of those they employ. Or if they can't be  bothered to build new factories elsewhere bring in other staff who will work for less and therefore put pressure on the original staff to work for longer, for less, or in less healthy circumstances.
There is now talk of starting EU armed forces, who will, of course, be intervening (bombing) countries with resources that our ruling classes want, or who are showing resistance to their neo-liberal plans. Of course they will cover up their real aims with hypocritical claims of protecting human rights/democracy etc, but always placing their people in power after they have killed tens of thousands and destroyed civil society. 
This is not to say that the  Westminster regime has not been doing this for centuries, but at least we can theoretically vote to remove those responsible (if we can see through the media's obfuscation and lies) and there are signs that Corbyn could play a different role if we give him the chance.
I can't see why anyone who is a socialist can have any regrets on the demise of the EU

Yep its a corporate carve up, trump is against corporate carve ups
Its hard to believe but this eccentric controversial billionaire is actually doing more for white collar workers and going after corporations taking all their profits abroad. Despite the many allegations against him, the reality is, his actual policies thus far are working better for the masses, including the lowest rates of unemployment for african americans and women 
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