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Can we still qualify?

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GPR - Rochester View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote GPR - Rochester Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Can we still qualify?
    Posted: 12 January 2020 at 9:25am
Well can we still get that prized one of 3 best runners up? Group 4 - Bristol's is out of it. Group 3 Bordeaux will win it but Edinburgh look well placed to be the best placed runner up. Thats 2 spots left. Group 1 Dragons are going to qualify - they will get 5 points next weekend against STM. The interesting point is who of Worcester v Castres wins. For our interests we need a win by Worcester by 8 points or more without a bonus point giving them 2nd place with 19. We need a bonus point win at Irish to get to 19. Final piece in the jigsaw is for Tigers to beat Blues today denying them any bonus points. 

If all that pans out we get through in either 7th (away to Toulon) or 8th ( away to Bristol). We are still alive - just!!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EJPT Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 January 2020 at 11:14am
I will not be counting on it. I hope we go to London Irish and win convincingly, they will likely be playing a weakened side with their focus solely on the league. We need the momentum and to get some use out of our internationals in the lead up to the 6 nations. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote coldith Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 January 2020 at 11:48am
If we do qualify, its likely to be another game against Toulon in Toulon. Cry
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Wil Chips Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 January 2020 at 12:09pm
Very unlikely to qualify, even with a 5 point win next week there will be 2 other groups that will have runners up with more points than us. Teams playing Agen and Enisei ( Edinburgh and Dragons..both at home) will get an easy 5 points and get to 20 pts ( we can only get to 19) and be 2 of the 3 runners up. ( Agen are an embarrassment...scored 57 pts in 5 games).

Our only hope is Pool 5, and within that Leicester beat both Blues today and Pau next week....even then The Blues could still sneak past us if we don’t get the full 5 pts versus LI, as they have Calvisano home, and will likely put their points diff ahead of ours ( both would be on 18)...next criteria is points difference.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ewbank2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 January 2020 at 12:26pm
Originally posted by Wil Chips Wil Chips wrote:

Very unlikely to qualify, even with a 5 point win next week there will be 2 other groups that will have runners up with more points than us. Teams playing Agen and Enisei ( Edinburgh and Dragons..both at home) will get an easy 5 points and get to 20 pts ( we can only get to 19) and be 2 of the 3 runners up. ( Agen are an embarrassment...scored 57 pts in 5 games).

Our only hope is Pool 5, and within that Leicester beat both Blues today and Pau next week....even then The Blues could still sneak past us if we don’t get the full 5 pts versus LI, as they have Calvisano home, and will likely put their points diff ahead of ours ( both would be on 18)...next criteria is points difference.


Pau can still win next week as long as they don't get a bp and overtake our points difference (we are 9pts better at the moment). If Cardiff get a lbp today then we will have to better their result next week. 
Otherwise Leicester to lose both of their remaining matches which I can’t see happening. 

We benefit from playing last in round 6 so will know what’s needed if we’re not knocked out by then.
Scarlets am Byth
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Wil Chips Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 January 2020 at 12:43pm
Pau can win the group for sure.

Bottom line is anything but a Leicester win today and our chances go from unlikely to skinny slim.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 157cb Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 January 2020 at 1:07pm
Originally posted by coldith coldith wrote:

If we do qualify, its likely to be another game against Toulon in Toulon. Cry

   Very,very unlikely to qualify now but if we did it could be Bristol .

  With two groups containing Calvisano and the Russians a  guaranteed 10 points to teams in that group,we get ToulonConfused
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Wasp Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 January 2020 at 1:40pm
Yes, but unlikely.
We're still still here!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ap sior Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 January 2020 at 3:58pm
Blues not doing us any favours at the moment, leading 14-7.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote PritchyTheScarlet Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 January 2020 at 4:02pm
Cardiff Blues leading Leicester 14-10 at the break. Blues the better side, Leicester are awful. Come on, Leicester.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Matt1715 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 January 2020 at 4:02pm
If Castre beat Worcester next week we will only need to beat Irish to finish as the 8th place team if other results go as expected which could mean Bristol away as they are the top seeds so far  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote DropOut22 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 January 2020 at 4:06pm
If castres win they and dragons will go through. Our best bet is worcester to beat them 4-1 on match points. That would put castres 2nd in pool 1 on 19 points. A BP win by more than 7 points will put us on 19 with better points difference
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Matt1715 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 January 2020 at 4:16pm
Castre are top on 18.  If they beat Worcester who are on 15 they will finish top and we will only need to win to finish above Worcester to take the 3rd runners up spot even if they get 4 tries and a losing bonus point.   
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Matt1715 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 January 2020 at 4:17pm
Sorry I see what you mean.  The Dragons are in that group too!!   

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ap sior Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 January 2020 at 4:30pm
Tigers lead 17-14, that's more like it. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 157cb Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 January 2020 at 4:34pm

  24-17 common the Tigers 
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