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roy munster View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roy munster Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 October 2020 at 7:50pm
Originally posted by Jones2004 Jones2004 wrote:

All this talk of a ‘circuit break’ to buy time seems to me to be a sign of the clear failure of our politicians (of all parties) during this crisis. The whole point of the first lockdown was to buy time to get a properly functioning Test, Trace and Isolate that probably should’ve been sufficient with the current social distancing to keep control of the virus. That we still need time after six months is infuriating. There are some decisions made by all governments that seem especially perplexing - sending students to universities if it wasn’t completely necessary for their courses, instead of giving a bailout to the universities (blaming the students seems ridiculous as no-one could’ve really expected them to stay in their blocks without socialising at all); not giving financial assistance to those required to self isolate at a level close to their wages; not building lab capacity high enough for the inevitable spike in symptoms at the start of September are three of a very long list of failings. Unfortunately because of these failings some very hard decisions will have to be made in the coming days and weeks and many lives and livelihoods will still be lost.

The amount of tests per head is supposedly the highest of any major country in the world. Im not sure if other nations turnaround of test results is quicker though. The TTT we were promised never seemed to materialise though? whats actually become of that? do other nations have great TTT systems ? if they do can we not buy into that system? 

we seem to be using a local method now where all infected people get contacted and then their contacts are contacted. The strategy locally is if youve been near an infected person you need to self isolate for 14 days from that day. Whereas it seems in some nations you get tested and if you get a negative you can end self isolation straight away
ROYMOND MUNTER MBE (FOR SERVICES TO THE COMBOVER)
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Jones2004 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jones2004 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 October 2020 at 8:12pm
Originally posted by roy munster roy munster wrote:

Originally posted by Jones2004 Jones2004 wrote:

All this talk of a ‘circuit break’ to buy time seems to me to be a sign of the clear failure of our politicians (of all parties) during this crisis. The whole point of the first lockdown was to buy time to get a properly functioning Test, Trace and Isolate that probably should’ve been sufficient with the current social distancing to keep control of the virus. That we still need time after six months is infuriating. There are some decisions made by all governments that seem especially perplexing - sending students to universities if it wasn’t completely necessary for their courses, instead of giving a bailout to the universities (blaming the students seems ridiculous as no-one could’ve really expected them to stay in their blocks without socialising at all); not giving financial assistance to those required to self isolate at a level close to their wages; not building lab capacity high enough for the inevitable spike in symptoms at the start of September are three of a very long list of failings. Unfortunately because of these failings some very hard decisions will have to be made in the coming days and weeks and many lives and livelihoods will still be lost.
The amount of tests per head is supposedly the highest of any major country in the world. Im not sure if other nations turnaround of test results is quicker though. The TTT we were promised never seemed to materialise though? whats actually become of that? do other nations have great TTT systems ? if they do can we not buy into that system? 

we seem to be using a local method now where all infected people get contacted and then their contacts are contacted. The strategy locally is if youve been near an infected person you need to self isolate for 14 days from that day. Whereas it seems in some nations you get tested and if you get a negative you can end self isolation straight away
Our tests per head does seem quite high (clearly even more would be better) yet it seems that the problem is getting a system around those tests. The turnaround for the tests has been getting progressively worse (I believe that only around a quarter of tests are currently hitting the 24 hour turnaround target) while after that the test and trace seems to be working quite well in Wales (around the 95% mark) while in England the local councils are doing even better than Wales while the privatised system that deals with the majority of tests are only tracing around 60% of contacts. And after that of those told to self-isolate only 20% do so fully. That is the main area of concern for me yet seems to be getting precious little attention in the media.
It’s hard to judge the success of the app’s contact tracing system as the whole point of it is that it picks up the cases that would otherwise be missed, yet the check in to location feature has only sent out 1 (I believe) notification since operational. Hardly inspires confidence in the rest of the app’s workings.
You asked with the self isolation if people could be tested rather than isolate for the full period, I believe the problem with that is that as there is an incubation period before a positive test result showing up, people would need to be tested every couple of days for 14 days to be on the safe side and I’d imagine that we don’t have enough test capacity for it. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rob o'r Bont Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 October 2020 at 8:13pm
Originally posted by roy munster roy munster wrote:

Originally posted by Jones2004 Jones2004 wrote:

All this talk of a ‘circuit break’ to buy time seems to me to be a sign of the clear failure of our politicians (of all parties) during this crisis. The whole point of the first lockdown was to buy time to get a properly functioning Test, Trace and Isolate that probably should’ve been sufficient with the current social distancing to keep control of the virus. That we still need time after six months is infuriating. There are some decisions made by all governments that seem especially perplexing - sending students to universities if it wasn’t completely necessary for their courses, instead of giving a bailout to the universities (blaming the students seems ridiculous as no-one could’ve really expected them to stay in their blocks without socialising at all); not giving financial assistance to those required to self isolate at a level close to their wages; not building lab capacity high enough for the inevitable spike in symptoms at the start of September are three of a very long list of failings. Unfortunately because of these failings some very hard decisions will have to be made in the coming days and weeks and many lives and livelihoods will still be lost.

The amount of tests per head is supposedly the highest of any major country in the world. Im not sure if other nations turnaround of test results is quicker though. The TTT we were promised never seemed to materialise though? whats actually become of that? do other nations have great TTT systems ? if they do can we not buy into that system? 

we seem to be using a local method now where all infected people get contacted and then their contacts are contacted. The strategy locally is if youve been near an infected person you need to self isolate for 14 days from that day. Whereas it seems in some nations you get tested and if you get a negative you can end self isolation straight away
I heard Boris say that about the testing as well. And then I was talking to a Chinese business contact of mine today.  When 9 people tested positive in her City recently, this sparked a testing regime where the whole city was tested in 3 days.  Boris can put that stat in his pipe and smoke it.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dr_martinov Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 October 2020 at 8:49pm
Originally posted by Rob o'r Bont Rob o'r Bont wrote:

Originally posted by roy munster roy munster wrote:

Originally posted by Jones2004 Jones2004 wrote:

All this talk of a ‘circuit break’ to buy time seems to me to be a sign of the clear failure of our politicians (of all parties) during this crisis. The whole point of the first lockdown was to buy time to get a properly functioning Test, Trace and Isolate that probably should’ve been sufficient with the current social distancing to keep control of the virus. That we still need time after six months is infuriating. There are some decisions made by all governments that seem especially perplexing - sending students to universities if it wasn’t completely necessary for their courses, instead of giving a bailout to the universities (blaming the students seems ridiculous as no-one could’ve really expected them to stay in their blocks without socialising at all); not giving financial assistance to those required to self isolate at a level close to their wages; not building lab capacity high enough for the inevitable spike in symptoms at the start of September are three of a very long list of failings. Unfortunately because of these failings some very hard decisions will have to be made in the coming days and weeks and many lives and livelihoods will still be lost.

The amount of tests per head is supposedly the highest of any major country in the world. Im not sure if other nations turnaround of test results is quicker though. The TTT we were promised never seemed to materialise though? whats actually become of that? do other nations have great TTT systems ? if they do can we not buy into that system? 

we seem to be using a local method now where all infected people get contacted and then their contacts are contacted. The strategy locally is if youve been near an infected person you need to self isolate for 14 days from that day. Whereas it seems in some nations you get tested and if you get a negative you can end self isolation straight away
I heard Boris say that about the testing as well. And then I was talking to a Chinese business contact of mine today.  When 9 people tested positive in her City recently, this sparked a testing regime where the whole city was tested in 3 days.  Boris can put that stat in his pipe and smoke it.


Oh, it must be true if he said it. I still bemoan the actual lack of scientific evidence behind any of these decisions being made: tests, lockdowns, masks, surfaces, you name it. Why do we never hear much about this at all - "based upon this set of data or evidences, we have elected to do this". Crazy idea no? Obviously most politicians don't like to talk about things they struggle to understand, such as science, data and facts.

On the topic above, I wonder just what is the effectiveness of these tests. It's not political point scoring but asking for honesty where we need honesty. A quick search would suggest it is able to detect 70% of positive cases: https://metro.co.uk/2020/09/18/how-accurate-are-coronavirus-tests-13289176/. To the Government, put your campaigning egos aside and simply answer is this true or not? If a test is only 70% accurate we need to be aware of this to accommodate accordingly.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roy munster Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 October 2020 at 8:51pm
Unless there is a phenomenal world class IT system in place to TTT There is no way a private firm can TTT millions the way the public sector can with its multi million workforce. does such a world class TTT system exist anywhere and why cant we buy into it?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roy munster Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 October 2020 at 10:05pm
whats nia griffiths got to say about all this then?
ROYMOND MUNTER MBE (FOR SERVICES TO THE COMBOVER)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dr_martinov Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 October 2020 at 8:48am
Is no one else surprised and concerned that it hasn't been made far more clearer that the NHS test is 70% accurate? Even duplication would then be 91%. Meaning there are always going to be positive cases thinking they are negative. Then think how many we are testing...

No test is 100% but I did not know this until very recently, actually until after taking it myself and doing my own background reading. 


Edited by dr_martinov - 17 October 2020 at 8:50am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roy munster Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 October 2020 at 9:27pm
Originally posted by dr_martinov dr_martinov wrote:

Is no one else surprised and concerned that it hasn't been made far more clearer that the NHS test is 70% accurate? Even duplication would then be 91%. Meaning there are always going to be positive cases thinking they are negative. Then think how many we are testing...

No test is 100% but I did not know this until very recently, actually until after taking it myself and doing my own background reading. 

is that 70% figure an average of all tests taken doc? Ive heard a few tales about people who went for tests and the person doing them didnt put it far back enough or in the correct area of the throat/mouth


Edited by roy munster - 17 October 2020 at 9:28pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dr_martinov Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 October 2020 at 4:05pm
Originally posted by roy munster roy munster wrote:

Originally posted by dr_martinov dr_martinov wrote:

Is no one else surprised and concerned that it hasn't been made far more clearer that the NHS test is 70% accurate? Even duplication would then be 91%. Meaning there are always going to be positive cases thinking they are negative. Then think how many we are testing...

No test is 100% but I did not know this until very recently, actually until after taking it myself and doing my own background reading. 

is that 70% figure an average of all tests taken doc? Ive heard a few tales about people who went for tests and the person doing them didnt put it far back enough or in the correct area of the throat/mouth

This appears to be the source document in the BMJ, which is an opinion piece citing other primary research on testing efficiencies, often Chinese studies:


Useful as you can play with the figures and see the outcome. 70% selectivity I think is the lower end of the published studies they cite but I wouldn't be surprised if we're talking 10% of results are false negatives. Then think just how many are testing positive at present...

This is where they get 70% from, "One community based study of 4653 close contacts of patients with covid-19 tested RT-PCR throat swabs every 48 hours during a 14 day quarantine period. Of 129 eventually diagnosed with covid-19 by RT-PCR, 92 (71.3%) had a positive test on the first throat swab, equating to a sensitivity of 71% in this lower prevalence, community setting."


So this also highlights throat swabs. 

Very brief summary of the BMJ's article's conclusions:
  • No test is 100% accurate

  • If your swab test comes back positive for covid-19 then we can be very confident that you do have covid-19

  • However, people with covid-19 can be missed by these swab tests. If you have strong symptoms of covid-19, it is safest to self-isolate, even if the swab test does not show covid-19


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rob o'r Bont Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 hours 20 minutes ago at 2:22pm
I would never make a bank robber.  Been walking into the shops in the village over the past month and everyone still recognises me, even with the mask on. Confused
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote reesytheexile Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 hours 50 minutes ago at 4:52pm
Originally posted by Rob o'r Bont Rob o'r Bont wrote:

I would never make a bank robber.  Been walking into the shops in the village over the past month and everyone still recognises me, even with the mask on. Confused
 

Go nudist for the day, that should distract the locals eyes  a bit !!😂
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote ladram Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 hours 24 minutes ago at 5:18pm
Originally posted by Rob o'r Bon<b>t Rob o'r Bont wrote:

I would never make a bank robber.
  Been walking into the shops in the village over the past month and everyone still recognises me, even with the mask on. Confused
Me neither i would be in travelodge saying " your linen or your life"LOL
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