Permutations

The West Walians sit third in Pool 5 on 12 points, just a point behind Bath and Toulon, and if they win both of their remaining matches - at The Rec on Friday night and then Toulon in Llanelli the following Saturday - that should be enough for the defending PRO14 champions to top the pool.

Will one win be enough?

Defeat in the 'rag doll' match this weekend wouldn’t be the end for the Scarlets, but they would be clinging on by their fingernails.


As long as they don’t leave The Rec empty handed they can still overhaul Toulon if they beat the French side on the final weekend.

But they would have to beat them with a try bonus point at Parc y Scarlets and also stop the French side picking up any sort of bonus to finish above the three-time winners and snatch second in the pool.

Toulon are on 13 points already and you would expect them to reach at least 18 with winless Benetton the visitors to the Stade Mayol this weekend.

That would leave the Scarlets needing a minimum of six points from their two remaining matches to give themselves a chance of overhauling the French giants.

Similarly, a 5-0 match points win over Bath and a losing bonus in defeat to Toulon, would see the Welsh side finish above their English rivals — even if Bath hammer Benetton in Italy on the final weekend — by virtue of match points between the two sides

We have to win both to qualify. If we do, we are almost certainly top of the group ( one of the other two would lave to get a try bonus point and a losing bonus point whilst we failed to get a try bonus point in the match against them- and a try bonus v Benneton}. I think that is all we need to know. If we only win once, we need the three bonus points to have any chance of being a best loser . Its possible to concoct a series of going through with a 3-3 record but it is highly unlikely.

I reckon Clermont and Leinster will top the pool stage with 27 and 24 points or thereabouts.

Or bath to slip up at treviso maybe

Speedy wrote: Realistically, we are in knockout rugby mode.

Sosban bach wrote: Or bath to slip up at treviso maybe

Need two wins, as an incredibly high chance both Bath and Toulon will come away with wins, probably bonus point wins, against Treviso. So all down to us.

Edited by Iwlew - 11 January 2018 at 12:08am

Speedy wrote: Realistically, we are in knockout rugby mode. We have to win both games, we will either come top, or third. Losing one of the last two games will see us in third imo. Unless anyone actually expects Toulon to slip up at home to Treviso? Or us to get a 5-0 v Toulon last game up.  We have to win in Bath. If we do, we are primed to win the group with a win v Toulon.

A 5-0 at home to toulon is not as unrealistic as one would think.