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Permutations

Printed From: Scarlet Fever Llanelli Rugby Sport Wales Tickets
Category: RUGBY
Forum Name: SCARLETS GENERAL
Forum Description: Team News, Season Tickets, Next Match
URL: http://www.scarletfever.org/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=44032
Printed Date: 20 June 2018 at 6:57am
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Topic: Permutations
Posted By: SA14
Subject: Permutations
Date Posted: 09 January 2018 at 4:20pm
The West Walians sit third in Pool 5 on 12 points, just a point behind Bath and Toulon, and if they win both of their remaining matches - at The Rec on Friday night and then Toulon in Llanelli the following Saturday - that should be enough for the defending PRO14 champions to top the pool.

Will one win be enough?

Defeat in the 'rag doll' match this weekend wouldn’t be the end for the Scarlets, but they would be clinging on by their fingernails.


As long as they don’t leave The Rec empty handed they can still overhaul Toulon if they beat the French side on the final weekend.

But they would have to beat them with a try bonus point at Parc y Scarlets and also stop the French side picking up any sort of bonus to finish above the three-time winners and snatch second in the pool.

Toulon are on 13 points already and you would expect them to reach at least 18 with winless Benetton the visitors to the Stade Mayol this weekend.

That would leave the Scarlets needing a minimum of six points from their two remaining matches to give themselves a chance of overhauling the French giants.

Similarly, a 5-0 match points win over Bath and a losing bonus in defeat to Toulon, would see the Welsh side finish above their English rivals — even if Bath hammer Benetton in Italy on the final weekend — by virtue of match points between the two sides



Replies:
Posted By: SA14
Date Posted: 09 January 2018 at 4:22pm
Easy. If we beat Bath, Toulon will be the most important game we’ve ever played at Parc y Scarlets IMO.


Posted By: John
Date Posted: 09 January 2018 at 4:40pm
We have to win both to qualify. If we do, we are almost certainly top of the group ( one of the other two would lave to get a try bonus point and a losing bonus point whilst we failed to get a try bonus point in the match against them- and a try bonus v Benneton}. I think that is all we need to know. If we only win once, we need the three bonus points to have any chance of being a best loser . Its possible to concoct a series of going through with a 3-3 record but it is highly unlikely.


Posted By: Sosban89
Date Posted: 09 January 2018 at 4:42pm
I can't see us winning against Bath or Toulon with a bonus point, so for me its 2 wins out of 2 needed. However I feel this team has it in them to do that. Bath is the harder game for me.


Posted By: Exkixu
Date Posted: 09 January 2018 at 5:11pm
I reckon Clermont and Leinster will top the pool stage with 27 and 24 points or thereabouts.

There is a good chance that with 9 points we might end 3rd-4th overall, meaning a home QF.
8 points and we might see 3-4 teams on 20 points, and then it's anyone's guess.

I can't see us getting through with just the one win as one of the best runners-up.


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1 Xavier Rush   2 Rhys Priestland   3 David Lyons   Cardiff Blues - Scarlets, 26/09/09      

More carries than any of our forwards. Priestland Fan Club Proud Member


Posted By: Speedy
Date Posted: 10 January 2018 at 3:58pm
Realistically, we are in knockout rugby mode.

We have to win both games, we will either come top, or third. Losing one of the last two games will see us in third imo.

Unless anyone actually expects Toulon to slip up at home to Treviso?

Or us to get a 5-0 v Toulon last game up. 

We have to win in Bath. If we do, we are primed to win the group with a win v Toulon.


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Posted By: Sosban bach
Date Posted: 10 January 2018 at 4:02pm
Or bath to slip up at treviso maybe


Posted By: Dafen Boy
Date Posted: 10 January 2018 at 4:32pm
Need a draw or win at Bath to keep hopes alive. 

The Bath home defeat killed us, and we were well beaten in that game.


Posted By: PearlJam
Date Posted: 10 January 2018 at 5:12pm
Originally posted by Speedy Speedy wrote:

Realistically, we are in knockout rugby mode.


I think that's the best way of assessing it. A win and a win sends us onwards; and I'd take that too, oddly enough.



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If you're losing your soul and you know it, then you've still got a soul left to lose.


Posted By: Wasp
Date Posted: 10 January 2018 at 5:27pm
Originally posted by Speedy Speedy wrote:

Realistically, we are in knockout rugby mode.

We have to win both games, we will either come top, or third. Losing one of the last two games will see us in third imo.

Unless anyone actually expects Toulon to slip up at home to Treviso?

Or us to get a 5-0 v Toulon last game up. 

We have to win in Bath. If we do, we are primed to win the group with a win v Toulon.
Goose pimples!!


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We're still still here!


Posted By: ScarletBear
Date Posted: 10 January 2018 at 6:31pm
Originally posted by Sosban bach Sosban bach wrote:

Or bath to slip up at treviso maybe

It is not impossible.


Posted By: roy munster
Date Posted: 10 January 2018 at 7:49pm
Weve got to win 

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ROYMOND MUNTER MBE (FOR SERVICES TO THE COMBOVER)


Posted By: Iwlew
Date Posted: 11 January 2018 at 12:06am
Need two wins, as an incredibly high chance both Bath and Toulon will come away with wins, probably bonus point wins, against Treviso. So all down to us.

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And We Were Singing...


Posted By: s.pimpernel
Date Posted: 11 January 2018 at 12:12am
Originally posted by Iwlew Iwlew wrote:

Need two wins, as an incredibly high chance both Bath and Toulon will come away with wins, probably bonus point wins, against Treviso. So all down to us.

Spot on. And as Speedy says, we`re now in knock out mode


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In Pivac we trust


Posted By: Matthew Cardey
Date Posted: 11 January 2018 at 12:26am
Originally posted by Speedy Speedy wrote:

Realistically, we are in knockout rugby mode.

We have to win both games, we will either come top, or third. Losing one of the last two games will see us in third imo.

Unless anyone actually expects Toulon to slip up at home to Treviso?

Or us to get a 5-0 v Toulon last game up. 

We have to win in Bath. If we do, we are primed to win the group with a win v Toulon.

A 5-0 at home to toulon is not as unrealistic as one would think.


Posted By: RedZep
Date Posted: 11 January 2018 at 1:47pm
Am I right in thinking, very unlikely I know, that it's possible for all 3 x teams to finish on 20 points?
 
Scarlets - 2 x wins, no bonus points.
Toulon - WBP v Treviso, 2 x LBP v Scarlets.
Bath - 2 x LBP v Scarlets, WBP v Treviso.
 
WTF would happen then?


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'' Know your three R's, son..... Rugby, Rock and Ridin'!! ''


Posted By: trinity60
Date Posted: 11 January 2018 at 2:01pm
We would be 3rd on match points between the sides, not sure how Bath/Toulon would be separated.


Posted By: GPR - Rochester
Date Posted: 11 January 2018 at 2:09pm
Originally posted by trinity60 trinity60 wrote:

We would be 3rd on match points between the sides, not sure how Bath/Toulon would be separated.

Think it would be aggregate points total in matches between the two sides which Bath win by a single point.


Posted By: NobbySosban
Date Posted: 11 January 2018 at 2:15pm
Originally posted by PearlJam PearlJam wrote:

Originally posted by Speedy Speedy wrote:

Realistically, we are in knockout rugby mode.


I think that's the best way of assessing it. A win and a win sends us onwards; and I'd take that too, oddly enough.


And Scarlets are a Cup team. Just saying. Approve




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Twitterer @ebenezer68


Posted By: Matthew Cardey
Date Posted: 11 January 2018 at 2:28pm
Looking at the other groups its going to be touch and go wether 18 points will be enough for second. Would have to get fair few results to go our way, and of course we'd have to beat beat toulon 5-0!


Posted By: SA14
Date Posted: 11 January 2018 at 2:36pm
I’m confident out pack will win the game for us tomorrow. Next week we’ll rise to a huge occasion. Home quarter final easy.


Posted By: GPR - Rochester
Date Posted: 11 January 2018 at 2:51pm
Originally posted by SA14 SA14 wrote:

I’m confident out pack will win the game for us tomorrow. Next week we’ll rise to a huge occasion. Home quarter final easy.

 I love it - its not often that we have been able to talk about our pack winning games for us. Our squad have come a long way. Lets outmuscle the Bath 8 & out run the Toulon 8 next week. Sorted!!!!


Posted By: SospanMawr
Date Posted: 13 January 2018 at 3:12pm
Right. Does it make a difference if Toulon lose today?
What do we want in terms of results from other groups to give us a home quarter final?
Pool 1
Ulster 17 points.
La Rochelle 16 points.
Pool 2
Clermont 18 points
Ospreys 13 points
Pool 3
Leinster 18 points
Montpellier 13 points
Pool 4
Munster 15 points
Racing 11 points



Posted By: aber-fan
Date Posted: 13 January 2018 at 3:18pm
Originally posted by GPR - Rochester GPR - Rochester wrote:

Originally posted by SA14 SA14 wrote:

I’m confident out pack will win the game for us tomorrow. Next week we’ll rise to a huge occasion. Home quarter final easy.

 I love it - its not often that we have been able to talk about our pack winning games for us. Our squad have come a long way. Lets outmuscle the Bath 8 & out run the Toulon 8 next week. Sorted!!!!

Part 1 done - though of course, it was an all-team effort, not just the forwards!


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I share no-one's ideas. I have my own.
(Ivan Turgenev)


Posted By: Rich (Bris)
Date Posted: 13 January 2018 at 4:03pm
Ulster gave our hopes of a home QF a nice lift today


Posted By: DropOut22
Date Posted: 13 January 2018 at 6:21pm
Racing to beat munster would be nice. If munster dont get any points a win on sat would give us a home qf. Or a Bp win for us would be enoughif ulster fail to get bp


Posted By: aber-fan
Date Posted: 13 January 2018 at 6:23pm
Originally posted by DropOut22 DropOut22 wrote:

Racing to beat munster would be nice. If munster dont get any points a win on sat would give us a home qf. Or a Bp win for us would be enoughif ulster fail to get bp

My head is hurting - and not just from the beer!


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I share no-one's ideas. I have my own.
(Ivan Turgenev)


Posted By: CTMassive
Date Posted: 13 January 2018 at 6:56pm
Eventhough Clermont are down 20-18 (27-21 now, c'mon Saints!) now, I assume they and Leinster will go through as the top two in the QF. Ospreys can pass us, but I can't see them turning over Saracens and Clermont. Sarries with 2x5pts can only get 21pts.
That leaves 3 pools going for 2 home QF places. If, and it's a big IF, but if we get 5pts next Saturday, that puts us on 22pts.
In Pool 4, Munster have Racing away and Castres at home. If Racing beat Munster but get a LBP and get all 5 against Castres then they get 21pts, 1 behind us. Even if Rscing get 5pts against Munster and 5pts against Leicester they are only on 21pts too.
Pool 1 Ulster are leading on 17pts but have a tough away game left to Wasps, even a win without BP would only put them on 21. I can see La Rochelle getting all 5 in their last game at home to Harlequins and also getting 21pts.

So our BP last night was huge, as was Ulsters win against La Rochelle. So lets hope for a Racing win v Munster and a BP win for us against Toulon would see us 3rd with a home QF. Obviously any win would be awesome, but there will probably be a glut of teams on 21pts.

At least our destiny is in our hands ..... for once Tongue


Posted By: SospanMawr
Date Posted: 13 January 2018 at 7:51pm
From the ERC Website
(c) If ranking remains unresolved and/or if clubs have not played each other previously in the pool stage, qualification/ranking will be determined as follows:
(i) the best aggregate points difference from the pool stage; or
(ii) if equal, the number of tries scored in the pool stage; or
(iii) if equal, the club with the fewest number of players suspended under Disciplinary Rules in the pool stage; or  
(iv) if unresolved, by drawing lots.

Our points difference is +36, and we've scored 16 tries, second to only Ospreys and Saracens (17).



Posted By: CTMassive
Date Posted: 13 January 2018 at 9:06pm
ACM are +44 so we need the Ospreys to do us a favour out there and not let them get a winning BP to keep them on 22 points. Wouldn't be a big deal really as it would only seperate 2nd from 3rd, both would get home QF. 

I'm sure we'd all settle for a W against Toulon - a total of 21 will probably be reached by a few teams so you could get 21 and be away in the QF, that's why I see us going all out for a BP again!!


Posted By: tannerbankboy
Date Posted: 13 January 2018 at 10:02pm
Just finished, Ospreys 15 v Saracens 15.  Clermont on 18, Ospreys on 15.  Sarries on 13. Sarries home to Saints next so 18 points max in total.  Looks like they're out.  Clermont likely 22 or 23.


Posted By: reesytheexile
Date Posted: 13 January 2018 at 10:10pm
Fair play to Welsh rugby and our nearby neighbors . Good effort. Here’s to next seasons EC Ospreys.We don’t want to be stuffed all the time as a nation but also pleased it’s just The Scarlets left 👍

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"I'd rather have been a judge than a miner.Being a miner,as soon as you are too old and tired and sick and stupid to do the job properly,you have to go.The very opposite applies with judges!"P.Cook


Posted By: John
Date Posted: 13 January 2018 at 10:12pm
Originally posted by SospanMawr SospanMawr wrote:

From the ERC Website
(c) If ranking remains unresolved and/or if clubs have not played each other previously in the pool stage, qualification/ranking will be determined as follows:
(i) the best aggregate points difference from the pool stage; or
(ii) if equal, the number of tries scored in the pool stage; or
(iii) if equal, the club with the fewest number of players suspended under Disciplinary Rules in the pool stage; or  
(iv) if unresolved, by drawing lots.

Our points difference is +36, and we've scored 16 tries, second to only Ospreys and Saracens (17).



Their penalties only draw tonight effectively puts paid to both of them. Clermont messing up at Saints ( and ditto La Rochelle at Ulster ) has brought both of them back to the same points area as us. So far no one has broken 20 points and although Leinster might expect to at home against Glasgow (and to a lesser extent Munster away in Paris), who knows? Rennie may have got to grips with this competition by now because something has been drastically wrong with Glasgow's Euro preparations so far. Leinster and Clermont should still be the top seeds but everything after that is up for grabs.

We need:

Munster to pick up no more than one bonus point tomorow (leaves us ahead of them)

Then a bonus point win next weekend means only Ulster, Clermont and Leinster can finish equal or above us. And so a home quarter.....

Easy isn't it? Just avoid BastereauOuch  and run round Nonu Ouch and score four tries to winSmile. Munster's result tomorrow really is important- a loss leaves rhe prospect of a  home quarter in our hands 


Posted By: CTMassive
Date Posted: 13 January 2018 at 10:14pm
Yup, that Biggar kick at the end, whilst it kept Ospreys alive (but made a home QF unlikely) it sunk Sarries - and they knew it, and that was with 8 Lions! Sanjay didn't touch the ball until 61', he nay have had one right at the end too. What a waste


Posted By: Speedy
Date Posted: 13 January 2018 at 10:35pm
What was peoples thoughts on the bottling of the red card for sarries? Steff should appeal.

Its was exactly the same as steffs challenge.


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Posted By: scarletnut
Date Posted: 13 January 2018 at 10:46pm
Originally posted by Speedy Speedy wrote:

What was peoples thoughts on the bottling of the red card for sarries? Steff should appeal.

Its was exactly the same as steffs challenge.
I think the fact he also made contact with Hassler saved him

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I still wake up late at night and think of what might have been when tim stimpson hit that jammy penalty1


Posted By: welshbenny
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 8:24am
Let’s put Munster to one side for a moment. I think they’ll win in Racing today.

If we just take our situation vs Ulster’s. Putting bonus points to one side for a moment, I think the most realistic outcome next week is a win for us and them beating Wasps (given Wasps are now out of the competition more or less). That would put us both on 21 points. Who would get the final home QF in that situation?


Posted By: aber-fan
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 8:37am
Originally posted by welshbenny welshbenny wrote:

Let’s put Munster to one side for a moment. I think they’ll win in Racing today.

If we just take our situation vs Ulster’s. Putting bonus points to one side for a moment, I think the most realistic outcome next week is a win for us and them beating Wasps (given Wasps are now out of the competition more or less). That would put us both on 21 points. Who would get the final home QF in that situation?

See SospanMawr's list of criteria earlier in the thread.

The first one to take into account is points difference - we are currently +36 and Ulster are +33, so not a lot in it.


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I share no-one's ideas. I have my own.
(Ivan Turgenev)


Posted By: welshbenny
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 8:56am
Originally posted by aber-fan aber-fan wrote:

Originally posted by welshbenny welshbenny wrote:

Let’s put Munster to one side for a moment. I think they’ll win in Racing today.

If we just take our situation vs Ulster’s. Putting bonus points to one side for a moment, I think the most realistic outcome next week is a win for us and them beating Wasps (given Wasps are now out of the competition more or less). That would put us both on 21 points. Who would get the final home QF in that situation?


See SospanMawr's list of criteria earlier in the thread.

The first one to take into account is points difference - we are currently +36 and Ulster are +33, so not a lot in it.


Cheers missed that.

That’s pretty close.

Come on Racing :)


Posted By: Tim Opolis
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 11:52am
I'd fancy Wasps to beat Ulster.


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Tymor nesa Duw, plis tymor nesa.


Posted By: LLANDRE
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 12:11pm
I tend to agree. Haskell was sent off yesterday?

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West is Best (Fin gwybod)


Posted By: scarletsmad_87
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 12:53pm
10 mins to kick off at the Stade Mayol. 
Come on Treviso! 


Posted By: John
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 1:09pm
Originally posted by LLANDRE LLANDRE wrote:

I tend to agree. Haskell was sent off yesterday?


Yes. Dr Bob was completely flattened by Haskell jumping into a challenge and catching that substantial jaw with his shoulder. I'm surprised Haskell didn't break his shoulder on that jawbone.


Posted By: CTMassive
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 1:37pm
Make no bones it's between us, Munster and Ulster. If Racing beat Munster today (and you'd expect them to be favourites at home, knockout rugby) then that's huge for us, and them - they could lead Pool 4. It would massively increase our chances of qualifying, quite probably with a home QF if we win. Even if things don't go our way there, the Wasps v Ulster game is huge because Ulster have 17 points like us.
I don't want to contemplate losing because there are too many permutations but I estimate runners up will have 20ptsx1, 19ptsx2 and 18ptsx3, so given only one of the 18 pointers go through we wouldn't want it left to chance. Again though we need one point for 18 so whatever happens the all out 4 try game plan will continue.


Posted By: sgsmorgan
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 2:21pm
Originally posted by Speedy Speedy wrote:

What was peoples thoughts on the bottling of the red card for sarries? Steff should appeal.

Its was exactly the same as steffs challenge.


Agree... couldn't believe the double standards. How the heck he only got a yellow I thought was appalling. He turned his back on him so was so irresponsible it was untrue.


Posted By: ap sior
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 2:56pm
Originally posted by sgsmorgan sgsmorgan wrote:

[QUOTE=Speedy]What was peoples thoughts on the bottling of the red card for sarries? Steff should appeal.

Its was exactly the same as steffs challenge.


Agree... couldn't believe the double standards. How the heck he only got a yellow I thought was appalling. He turned his back on him so was so irresponsible it was untrue.
[/QUOTE

I made the point elsewhere that Adam Byrne's challenge on Aled Thomas was the extremely reckless, he just ran in to Aled making NO attempt to get off the ground to challenge. Byrne was given 2 weeks reduced to 1 for a guilty plea and all that.

I can sort of understand the discrepancy between Byrne and Steff as there has been a directive from IRB this year. However there should not be a discrepancy within a season.


Posted By: CTMassive
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 3:02pm
Not inconceivable that there won't be an English team in the last 8 - only Exeter have a chance of getting a runners up spot, and that is touch and go because the runners up look like they are coming from Ulster/La Rochelle, Munster/Racing and Scarlets/Toulon. The Racing game now is huge, I'm looking forward to seeing this new indoor stadium, looks fantastic. Come to think of it, we should have built a roof on Parc y Scarlets!


Posted By: ap sior
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 3:05pm
[QUOTE=CTMassive]Not inconceivable that there won't be an English team in the last 8 - only Exeter have a chance of getting a runners up spot, and that is touch and go because the runners up look like they are coming from Ulster/La Rochelle, Munster/Racing and Scarlets/Toulon. The Racing game now is huge, I'm looking forward to seeing this new indoor stadium, looks fantastic. Come to think of it, we should have built a roof on Parc y Scarlets![/QUOTE

Is Ladram busy ?


Posted By: tannerbankboy
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 3:05pm
36-0 to Toulon today, 5 points, they go top of the group, one above us.  Never in doubt really that result.  Still, it makes no difference to next Saturday.


Posted By: CTMassive
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 4:00pm
Originally posted by ap sior ap sior wrote:

[QUOTE=CTMassive]Not inconceivable that there won't be an English team in the last 8 - only Exeter have a chance of getting a runners up spot, and that is touch and go because the runners up look like they are coming from Ulster/La Rochelle, Munster/Racing and Scarlets/Toulon. The Racing game now is huge, I'm looking forward to seeing this new indoor stadium, looks fantastic. Come to think of it, we should have built a roof on Parc y Scarlets![/QUOTE

Is Ladram busy ?
He only deals in slate!


Posted By: Dafen Boy
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 4:04pm
13-7 to Racing at half time but Munster looking ominous.


Posted By: Dafen Boy
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 4:05pm
Originally posted by tannerbankboy tannerbankboy wrote:

36-0 to Toulon today, 5 points, they go top of the group, one above us.  Never in doubt really that result.  Still, it makes no difference to next Saturday.

Unless the game is a draw


Posted By: CTMassive
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 4:05pm
I think we would love to play in Racing on that surface


Posted By: ladram
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 4:06pm
Originally posted by ap sior ap sior wrote:

[QUOTE=CTMassive]Not inconceivable that there won't be an English team in the last 8 - only Exeter have a chance of getting a runners up spot, and that is touch and go because the runners up look like they are coming from Ulster/La Rochelle, Munster/Racing and Scarlets/Toulon. The Racing game now is huge, I'm looking forward to seeing this new indoor stadium, looks fantastic. Come to think of it, we should have built a roof on Parc y Scarlets![/QUOTE

Is Ladram busy ?
available but not next Saturday.LOL

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30th june 1986- 30th june 2011.25 years roofing,i wouldn't call that dodgy.


Posted By: ap sior
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 4:12pm
Originally posted by CTMassive CTMassive wrote:

Originally posted by ap sior ap sior wrote:

[QUOTE=CTMassive]Not inconceivable that there won't be an English team in the last 8 - only Exeter have a chance of getting a runners up spot, and that is touch and go because the runners up look like they are coming from Ulster/La Rochelle, Munster/Racing and Scarlets/Toulon. The Racing game now is huge, I'm looking forward to seeing this new indoor stadium, looks fantastic. Come to think of it, we should have built a roof on Parc y Scarlets![/QUOTE

Is Ladram busy ?
He only deals in slate!

You got that wrong. He gets his slatings on here, sometimes !


Posted By: Eastern outpost
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 4:27pm
Originally posted by CTMassive CTMassive wrote:

Originally posted by ap sior ap sior wrote:

[QUOTE=CTMassive]Not inconceivable that there won't be an English team in the last 8 - only Exeter have a chance of getting a runners up spot, and that is touch and go because the runners up look like they are coming from Ulster/La Rochelle, Munster/Racing and Scarlets/Toulon. The Racing game now is huge, I'm looking forward to seeing this new indoor stadium, looks fantastic. Come to think of it, we should have built a roof on Parc y Scarlets![/QUOTE

Is Ladram busy ?

He only deals in slate!
Is that what the landlord of his local says?

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Any offence taken on board is only a literate/cy consequence. Every attempt at humour is just that. No personal insult intended. Standards lowered for trolls.


Posted By: Dafen Boy
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 4:31pm
Munster should beat Racing


Posted By: ap sior
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 4:56pm
Munster 30-28 ahead at the moment. This is only helping us in as much there won't be a runner up from this group going forward.


Posted By: ap sior
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 4:57pm
Racing now in the lead ! 5 mins to go


Posted By: ap sior
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 4:59pm
34-30


Posted By: CTMassive
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 5:02pm
Yess!! Racing squeeze a win ..... another great result for us ...... the stars are aligning Wink


Posted By: roy munster
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 5:02pm
Originally posted by CTMassive CTMassive wrote:

Yess!! Racing squeeze a win ..... another great result for us ...... the stars are aligning Wink

I think munster defeat means a scarlets win probably gives them a home quarter final draw? munster now 16 points. if scarlets win they are 21 points if munster beat castres they are on 20 points but if munster get bonus 21 points so all square?


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ROYMOND MUNTER MBE (FOR SERVICES TO THE COMBOVER)


Posted By: ap sior
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 5:03pm
Racing win 34-30. Merci monsieurs !



Posted By: Dafen Boy
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 5:07pm
The first Bath game is haunting us...

but all to play for...a home QF would help the coffers


Posted By: roy munster
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 5:10pm
Originally posted by Dafen Boy Dafen Boy wrote:

The first Bath game is haunting us...

but all to play for...a home QF would help the coffers

nah thats ancient history the fate is in our hands now


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ROYMOND MUNTER MBE (FOR SERVICES TO THE COMBOVER)


Posted By: scarletnut
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 5:12pm
Originally posted by Dafen Boy Dafen Boy wrote:

The first Bath game is haunting us...

but all to play for...a home QF would help the coffers
There's significant prize money at stake home quarter final or not.

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I still wake up late at night and think of what might have been when tim stimpson hit that jammy penalty1


Posted By: CTMassive
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 5:16pm
Originally posted by roy munster roy munster wrote:

Originally posted by CTMassive CTMassive wrote:

Yess!! Racing squeeze a win ..... another great result for us ...... the stars are aligning Wink

I think munster defeat means a scarlets win probably gives them a home quarter final draw? munster now 16 points. if scarlets win they are 21 points if munster beat castres they are on 20 points but if munster get bonus 21 points so all square?

Exactly, and there is ULSTER. The 3 of us are fighting for 2 home QFs.
Ulster on 17 with a tricky away game to Wasps - THIS GAME IS HUGE!! So HUGE, I may go and support Wasps! They CAN'T ROLL OVER!! No way. An Ulster 5 pointer means we need 5 as well or we're competing with Munster fpr the 4th spot.
Racing depriving Munster a 4 try BP was HUGE as well, because the most they can with a 5 pointer against Castres is 21 points.
So if we win and Munster don't get a BP we'd have a home QF. Or if Wasps beat Ulster and we win - home QF. If we win no try BP (21), Munster win with BP (21) and Ulster win away in Wasps without try BP they have 21 too!!
So to avoid the 21 point Russiam roulette - lets just win with 4 or more tries. Simples Big smile


Posted By: aber-fan
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 5:23pm
I'll be surprised if Ulster win at Wasps, but it's not impossible. All I care about, really, is that we win against Toulon - after that, we'll just see what comes.

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I share no-one's ideas. I have my own.
(Ivan Turgenev)


Posted By: Dafydd Glyn
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 5:26pm
There's also La Rochelle - I'd expect them to get a full haul at home against Quins, which would put them on 21, and ahead to Ulster on head to head if they're tied. And I can't see Munster failing to score 4 tries at home against a team with nothing to play for.

I think we need to win with the bonus point for a home quarter - Munster, Ulster and La Rochelle all play on Sunday so will know exactly what's needed if points difference comes into the equation.


Posted By: Mr Ian
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 5:30pm
I dont like to do ipotesis of possibile quarter,..for me it s important qualification, then if you want to achieve something of memorabile, have to beat all of them...


Posted By: Dafydd Glyn
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 5:30pm
I think that's the attitude. Racing's win today has only helped us if we win next win. It also means that 18 points probably won't be enough for a runners up spot. If we beat Toulon, we should be very happy. Anything else would be a bonus.


Posted By: CTMassive
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 5:34pm
Yes Dafydd, La Rochelle can overtake Ulster because they have the toughest game. It's quite amazing there isn't a SUPER SATURDAY scenario where teams have no idea what's needed. This could be deemed disadvantageous to us, playing Saturday. Personally I rather we play Saturday so we can concentrate 100% on 4 try win.

Just playing Devils Advocate, but imagine having 3 tries and kicking a late penalty to secure the win and qualification., it would be heartbreaking if Ulster are in the same position but go all out to get a 4th try and with it, get the final home qualification! I'd be Cry ...........I'd take a 6-3 win and any sort of qualification, but wouldn't it be ace being home with 2 more wins required, some on neutral grounds, sun shining, heads up rugby, could be 2017 all over again!!!


Posted By: Dafydd Glyn
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 5:38pm
Of course, ospreys could change the equation too - if they beat Clermont, it pretty much removes the chance of us being a best runner-up, but it does mean any Scarlets win would be enough for the home quarter.


Posted By: Dafen Boy
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 5:38pm
Originally posted by scarletnut scarletnut wrote:

Originally posted by Dafen Boy Dafen Boy wrote:

The first Bath game is haunting us...

but all to play for...a home QF would help the coffers
There's significant prize money at stake home quarter final or not.

True, but a big home gate wouldn't hurt


Posted By: CTMassive
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 5:39pm
Originally posted by Mr Ian Mr Ian wrote:

I dont like to do ipotesis of possibile quarter,..for me it s important qualification, then if you want to achieve something of memorabile, have to beat all of them...

Hypothesising is good fun though Mr Ian LOL


Posted By: Dafen Boy
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 5:39pm
Originally posted by Dafydd Glyn Dafydd Glyn wrote:

Of course, ospreys could change the equation too - if they beat Clermont, it pretty much removes the chance of us being a best runner-up, but it does mean any Scarlets win would be enough for the home quarter.

Talk about mixed emotions..


Posted By: Dafydd Glyn
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 5:44pm
Indeed! In fairness, I'd love for Ospreys to qualify, just not at the expense of Scarlets! Heresy, I know but what a boost for Welsh rugby it would be to have two teams there...


Posted By: DropOut22
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 5:45pm
Not sure how Wasps will go now they're out. Would have had them done to beat Ulster, unfortunately I think we'll need a bp win to get a home QF. It's do-able but its going to be a huge task 


Posted By: Eastern outpost
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 5:47pm
An all French and PRO14 set of quarter finals would be rather mouthwatering 😎🍻

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Any offence taken on board is only a literate/cy consequence. Every attempt at humour is just that. No personal insult intended. Standards lowered for trolls.


Posted By: CTMassive
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 6:02pm
And would probably highlight that the Aviva standard isn't as good as some make out


Posted By: aber-fan
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 6:19pm
Castres are currently beating Leicester 27-0... is this a case of 'how have the mighty fallen', or have Leicester fielded a weakened side? If so, can and will they be punished, as it could affect other teams' chances of qualification?

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I share no-one's ideas. I have my own.
(Ivan Turgenev)


Posted By: ChrisX
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 6:20pm
As it stands, Scarlets only team to win away from home in Round 5 this weekend....

No English teams currently in top 8....

Pro 14 v The Top 14


Posted By: SA14
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 6:25pm
Yet people constantly criticise the PRO14 as a poor competition.


Posted By: Dafydd Glyn
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 6:26pm
Glasgow could make a lot of friends v Exeter next weekend, but based on today's score, have they thrown in the towel?


Posted By: roy munster
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 6:28pm
Originally posted by SA14 SA14 wrote:

Yet people constantly criticise the PRO14 as a poor competition.

Exactly

The pro 14 will have 3 or 4 teams in the quarters and the english will almost certainly have none. (The irish and welsh have dominated the 6 nations fairly consistently for over a decade up until the last 2 years)

Over the years leinster munster ulster have won the cup 6 times between them all
Time we put a welsh name on it tooWink


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ROYMOND MUNTER MBE (FOR SERVICES TO THE COMBOVER)


Posted By: roy munster
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 6:29pm
munster v scarlets IF it comes down to 21 points each will be done on points diff , they are plus 39 we are plus 36

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ROYMOND MUNTER MBE (FOR SERVICES TO THE COMBOVER)


Posted By: Matthew Cardey
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 6:38pm
Think we just need to concentrate on getting the win. It will guarantee qualification and who knows how the other games will go.21 could well be good enough for home QF.


Posted By: Dafydd Glyn
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 6:41pm
So Leinster have won their pool and are through as winners. I think Munster, Racing, Ulster and La Rochelle will all win next week and go through as winners or runners up.

The other winners will be Ospreys or Clermont and Scarlets or Toulon. Clermont and Toulon would have a good chance of going through as runners up if they lose with a bonus point. Saracens, Bath and Exeter could yet sneak through as runners up, with Exeter most likely as they can reach 19 points. A losing bonus point for either Scarlets or Toulon puts Bath out. Saracens are out if Ospreys win.

I think it's reasonably likely that Saracens and Exeter will get a full haul, leaving Exeter on 19 and Saracens on 18, with Munster, Racing, Ulster and La Rochelle all somewhere between 20 and 22. Scarlets have to win - a best runners up spot isn't likely.


Posted By: SospanMawr
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 6:43pm
Originally posted by roy munster roy munster wrote:

Originally posted by SA14 SA14 wrote:

Yet people constantly criticise the PRO14 as a poor competition.


Exactly

The pro 14 will have 3 or 4 teams in the quarters and the english will almost certainly have none. (The irish and welsh have dominated the 6 nations fairly consistently for over a decade up until the last 2 years)

Over the years leinster munster ulster have won the cup 6 times between them all
Time we put a welsh name on it tooWink
The teams are quality, the league is crap.


Posted By: CTMassive
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 6:44pm
Of course the players need to concentrate on just getting the win, but we are free to speculate, hypthesise and conjecture all we want. Hell this is one of the most exciting weeks I can remember bar the Pro12 Final build up. I also trust that someone will be doing the maths and looking at the permutations because someone needs to let Ken know half time what the play should be in different circumstances, assuming we're in the game. I guarentee you Schmidt and I'm certain Stevo will be looking at it


Posted By: roy munster
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 7:37pm
good weekend for welsh rugby

Cardiff beat toulouse and they qualified (They need to win in Lyon to make home quarter final)
We stuffed bath 
Ospreys drew with the champions and knocked them out (ospreys need to win in clermont to qualify)
Dragons another brave defeat lol

Overall european record is won 11 drew 1 lost 8
far better than the welsh pro 14 overall record of won 22 lost 29, that kind of underlines the relative strength of the pro 14


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ROYMOND MUNTER MBE (FOR SERVICES TO THE COMBOVER)


Posted By: tannerbankboy
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 8:13pm
Ah, the end of week 5 and the what if's and maybe's are all becoming a little clearer.  If only a little.


Posted By: Eastern outpost
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 8:17pm
Not sure Sarries are out mathematically. Thought they’ve a sliver of a chance still of a high scoring runners up berth.

Is that the case?

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Any offence taken on board is only a literate/cy consequence. Every attempt at humour is just that. No personal insult intended. Standards lowered for trolls.


Posted By: roy munster
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 8:22pm
Originally posted by Eastern outpost Eastern outpost wrote:

Not sure Sarries are out mathematically. Thought they’ve a sliver of a chance still of a high scoring runners up berth.

Is that the case?

sarries are 100% out, even if they get 5 points 1 of the ospreys or sarries will end up with 19 points

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4Benetton50056915333




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ROYMOND MUNTER MBE (FOR SERVICES TO THE COMBOVER)


Posted By: CTMassive
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 8:28pm
Yes, they're on 13 pts and 18 pts could still make a best runners up, but they would need to win with 4 tries and by 20 odd points (assuming we and others vying for second lose and hence have a worse point differential). But they are at home, saying that Gaffney seems to have started having an effect at Saints, playing for the new boss etc, Billy Vunipola out for 10 weeks and their back 3 only getting to touch the ball for kick returns doesn't bode well .......... yeah they're out. Who'd have thought that last year -Sarries out and Scarlets alive and kicking -  definitely not Sanjay!


Posted By: Dafydd Glyn
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 8:42pm
Saracens are definitely out if Ospreys win, because they can't overtake Clermont and so will finish third. If Clermont win and Sarries get a full 5 points, they'll go into the mix, but looking at the likely results, 19 points may well be the cut off for a best runners up spot.

The only teams that are definitely out are the 5 bottom placed teams. Everyone else still has a chance, although for Wasps and Castres who can only reach 17 points, it's not likely.


Posted By: roy munster
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 8:42pm
Originally posted by CTMassive CTMassive wrote:

Yes, they're on 13 pts and 18 pts could still make a best runners up, but they would need to win with 4 tries and by 20 odd points (assuming we and others vying for second lose and hence have a worse point differential). But they are at home, saying that Gaffney seems to have started having an effect at Saints, playing for the new boss etc, Billy Vunipola out for 10 weeks and their back 3 only getting to touch the ball for kick returns doesn't bode well .......... yeah they're out. Who'd have thought that last yeaar -Sarries out and Scarlets alive and kicking -  definitely not Sanjay!

ah my mistake yes runners up spot is still outside possibility if they get bonus point win and ospreys lose and other groups go their way its still possible


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ROYMOND MUNTER MBE (FOR SERVICES TO THE COMBOVER)


Posted By: Dafen Boy
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 9:08pm
Pool 2 and Pool 3 games will have ben played by time we play on Saturday night.


Posted By: ScarletBear
Date Posted: 14 January 2018 at 11:19pm
If we win and don't get a BP we have an away QF.
If we win and do get a BP we have a home QF.
In my opinion. It is that tight. That is a world of difference.



Posted By: Dafen Boy
Date Posted: 15 January 2018 at 12:07am
Hard to see 4 tries against Toulon.... unless the cards come out...I want to see Basta play and have us beat their best



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