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Can we still qualify?

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Topic: Can we still qualify?
Posted By: GPR - Rochester
Subject: Can we still qualify?
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 9:25am
Well can we still get that prized one of 3 best runners up? Group 4 - Bristol's is out of it. Group 3 Bordeaux will win it but Edinburgh look well placed to be the best placed runner up. Thats 2 spots left. Group 1 Dragons are going to qualify - they will get 5 points next weekend against STM. The interesting point is who of Worcester v Castres wins. For our interests we need a win by Worcester by 8 points or more without a bonus point giving them 2nd place with 19. We need a bonus point win at Irish to get to 19. Final piece in the jigsaw is for Tigers to beat Blues today denying them any bonus points. 

If all that pans out we get through in either 7th (away to Toulon) or 8th ( away to Bristol). We are still alive - just!!!



Replies:
Posted By: EJPT
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 11:14am
I will not be counting on it. I hope we go to London Irish and win convincingly, they will likely be playing a weakened side with their focus solely on the league. We need the momentum and to get some use out of our internationals in the lead up to the 6 nations. 


Posted By: coldith
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 11:48am
If we do qualify, its likely to be another game against Toulon in Toulon. Cry


Posted By: Wil Chips
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 12:09pm
Very unlikely to qualify, even with a 5 point win next week there will be 2 other groups that will have runners up with more points than us. Teams playing Agen and Enisei ( Edinburgh and Dragons..both at home) will get an easy 5 points and get to 20 pts ( we can only get to 19) and be 2 of the 3 runners up. ( Agen are an embarrassment...scored 57 pts in 5 games).

Our only hope is Pool 5, and within that Leicester beat both Blues today and Pau next week....even then The Blues could still sneak past us if we don’t get the full 5 pts versus LI, as they have Calvisano home, and will likely put their points diff ahead of ours ( both would be on 18)...next criteria is points difference.



Posted By: ewbank2
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 12:26pm
Originally posted by Wil Chips Wil Chips wrote:

Very unlikely to qualify, even with a 5 point win next week there will be 2 other groups that will have runners up with more points than us. Teams playing Agen and Enisei ( Edinburgh and Dragons..both at home) will get an easy 5 points and get to 20 pts ( we can only get to 19) and be 2 of the 3 runners up. ( Agen are an embarrassment...scored 57 pts in 5 games).

Our only hope is Pool 5, and within that Leicester beat both Blues today and Pau next week....even then The Blues could still sneak past us if we don’t get the full 5 pts versus LI, as they have Calvisano home, and will likely put their points diff ahead of ours ( both would be on 18)...next criteria is points difference.


Pau can still win next week as long as they don't get a bp and overtake our points difference (we are 9pts better at the moment). If Cardiff get a lbp today then we will have to better their result next week. 
Otherwise Leicester to lose both of their remaining matches which I can’t see happening. 

We benefit from playing last in round 6 so will know what’s needed if we’re not knocked out by then.


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Scarlets am Byth


Posted By: Wil Chips
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 12:43pm
Pau can win the group for sure.

Bottom line is anything but a Leicester win today and our chances go from unlikely to skinny slim.


Posted By: 157cb
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 1:07pm
Originally posted by coldith coldith wrote:

If we do qualify, its likely to be another game against Toulon in Toulon. Cry

   Very,very unlikely to qualify now but if we did it could be Bristol .

  With two groups containing Calvisano and the Russians a  guaranteed 10 points to teams in that group,we get ToulonConfused


Posted By: Wasp
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 1:40pm
Yes, but unlikely.

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We're still still here!


Posted By: ap sior
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 3:58pm
Blues not doing us any favours at the moment, leading 14-7.


Posted By: PritchyTheScarlet
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 4:02pm
Cardiff Blues leading Leicester 14-10 at the break. Blues the better side, Leicester are awful. Come on, Leicester.

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#DelaneyEra



Posted By: Matt1715
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 4:02pm
If Castre beat Worcester next week we will only need to beat Irish to finish as the 8th place team if other results go as expected which could mean Bristol away as they are the top seeds so far  


Posted By: DropOut22
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 4:06pm
If castres win they and dragons will go through. Our best bet is worcester to beat them 4-1 on match points. That would put castres 2nd in pool 1 on 19 points. A BP win by more than 7 points will put us on 19 with better points difference


Posted By: Matt1715
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 4:16pm
Castre are top on 18.  If they beat Worcester who are on 15 they will finish top and we will only need to win to finish above Worcester to take the 3rd runners up spot even if they get 4 tries and a losing bonus point.   


Posted By: Matt1715
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 4:17pm
Sorry I see what you mean.  The Dragons are in that group too!!   



Posted By: ap sior
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 4:30pm
Tigers lead 17-14, that's more like it. 


Posted By: 157cb
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 4:34pm

  24-17 common the Tigers 


Posted By: 157cb
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 4:44pm
 27-17,


Posted By: 157cb
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 4:53pm
 27-20


Posted By: M.M.
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 4:53pm
27-20 now. 10 mins to go.


Posted By: M.M.
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 4:56pm
30-20 


Posted By: Jones2004
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 4:59pm
Tigers winning 30-20. Let’s hope they stop the Blues from getting within 7 points.


Posted By: M.M.
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 4:59pm
Still 30-20. 5 mins to go.


Posted By: Mogwen
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 4:59pm
Ifvthe scores stay the same, all we need to do is win with bonus point next week to qualify. Leicster and stade play each other so will over take whoever loses or if its a draw we over take stade.

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The only true wisdom is in knowing you know nothing.


Posted By: Wil Chips
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 5:00pm
Originally posted by Matt1715 Matt1715 wrote:

If Castre beat Worcester next week we will only need to beat Irish to finish as the 8th place team if other results go as expected which could mean Bristol away as they are the top seeds so far  


Dragons will definitely qualify from that group..they will take 5 points from the last game against Calvisano home and finish on 20 pts.

If Castres beat Worcester they will qualify with the Dragons too ( and win the group).

If Worcester beat Castres then even if we get 5 points ( and Worcester get only 4) they already have +48 point difference on us.

I don’t see any likelihood of us getting ahead of anyone in this pool.


Posted By: Mogwen
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 5:01pm
Originally posted by Mogwen Mogwen wrote:

Ifvthe scores stay the same, all we need to do is win with bonus point next week to qualify. Leicster and stade play each other so will over take whoever loses or if its a draw we over take stade.


Pau not stade

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The only true wisdom is in knowing you know nothing.


Posted By: M.M.
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 5:06pm
30-20 FT


Posted By: DropOut22
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 5:09pm
Will i think if worcester win without bp, castres get a bp head to head castres go second. Theyre points difference will be very little compared to ours. So 4-1 worcester or anything but a pau bp win


Posted By: Jones2004
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 5:12pm
If we win with a BP next week there is only one scenario that we will not go through. It would depend on Pau beating Leicester with a BP as well as anything other than a 4-1 match points win for Worcester in pool A.


Posted By: sospanman
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 5:14pm
Originally posted by Wil Chips Wil Chips wrote:

Originally posted by Matt1715 Matt1715 wrote:

If Castre beat Worcester next week we will only need to beat Irish to finish as the 8th place team if other results go as expected which could mean Bristol away as they are the top seeds so far  


Dragons will definitely qualify from that group..they will take 5 points from the last game against Calvisano home and finish on 20 pts.

If Castres beat Worcester they will qualify with the Dragons too ( and win the group).

If Worcester beat Castres then even if we get 5 points ( and Worcester get only 4) they already have +48 point difference on us.

I don’t see any likelihood of us getting ahead of anyone in this pool.

But only 2 teams can qualify from that group isn't? Certainly 2 will but that will depend on who wins between Worcs & Castres.

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Ymlaen Llanelli Scarlets


Posted By: 157cb
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 5:14pm
  If Scarlets beat Irish ? and Tigers beat Pau in France next Saturday lunchtime we will qualify,I believe .

  The Tigers will  be playing for a home quarter final .


Posted By: Wil Chips
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 5:17pm
Originally posted by DropOut22 DropOut22 wrote:

Will i think if worcester win without bp, castres get a bp head to head castres go second. Theyre points difference will be very little compared to ours. So 4-1 worcester or anything but a pau bp win


Worcester win without bp =19pts
Castres get a lbp = 19pts
(/Dragon win the group with 20 pts)

By definition Worcester ( much netter points diff than us) and Drags qualify.


Posted By: solva
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 5:19pm
We could lose out to any of the three in group one (ie. Dragons, Castres or Worcester). Any of three in group five (ie Leicester, Blues or Pau) plus Edinburgh in group three.  Nail biting.


Posted By: DropOut22
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 5:21pm
For teams in the same group its head to head

(i) the club with the greater number of match points from those matches; or
(ii) if equal, the club with the best aggregate points difference from those matches: or
(iii) if equal, the club that scored the most tries in those matches.

If it ends 4-1 to worcester itll be castres 2nd as first game finished 4-0 to them


Posted By: Wil Chips
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 5:23pm
Originally posted by 157cb 157cb wrote:


  If Scarlets beat Irish ? and Tigers beat Pau in France next Saturday lunchtime we will qualify,I believe .

  The Tigers will  be playing for a home quarter final .



That’s right Mark. The downside is the Tigers could well send a 2nd string out there now they’ve won the group,

Pau do need 5 points to be sure of qualifying above us mind.

All we can do is go full on for it...I fancy a tasty QF with Bristol being the prize.



Any group with the 2 semi pro sides in them are virtually guaranteed to get 2 qualifiers. Agen have been very disappointing.


Posted By: solva
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 5:25pm
Agreed.   All Tigers fans now


Posted By: Wil Chips
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 5:25pm
Originally posted by DropOut22 DropOut22 wrote:

For teams in the same group its head to head

<span style="caret-color: rgb82, 82, 82; color: rgb82, 82, 82; font-family: Flexo, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14.4399995803833px; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba0, 0, 0, 0; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; : rgb234, 233, 230;">(i) the club with the greater number of match points from those matches; or</span><br style="-sizing: border-; caret-color: rgb82, 82, 82; color: rgb82, 82, 82; font-family: Flexo, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14.4399995803833px; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba0, 0, 0, 0; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;"><span style="caret-color: rgb82, 82, 82; color: rgb82, 82, 82; font-family: Flexo, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14.4399995803833px; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba0, 0, 0, 0; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; : rgb234, 233, 230;">(ii) if equal, the club with the best aggregate points difference from those matches: or</span><br style="-sizing: border-; caret-color: rgb82, 82, 82; color: rgb82, 82, 82; font-family: Flexo, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14.4399995803833px; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba0, 0, 0, 0; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;"><span style="caret-color: rgb82, 82, 82; color: rgb82, 82, 82; font-family: Flexo, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14.4399995803833px; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba0, 0, 0, 0; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; : rgb234, 233, 230;">(iii) if equal, the club that scored the most tries in those matches.</span>

If it ends 4-1 to worcester itll be castres 2nd as first game finished 4-0 to them



Sorry, yes you are right.

It’s still a long shot though. Pool 5 looks a little more likely to help us.


Posted By: jimmywilde
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 5:34pm
I think we are stuffed*
Not getting anything last night has taken it out of our hands.
Pau will get 5 points v Leicester. 
Tbh I overlooked them and thought it was us or Blues.

*I am often wrong.




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Often visit, rarely post.
I like to consider myself a well behaved lurker.


Posted By: PritchyTheScarlet
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 5:40pm
Originally posted by PritchyTheScarlet PritchyTheScarlet wrote:

Cardiff Blues leading Leicester 14-10 at the break. Blues the better side, Leicester are awful. Come on, Leicester.

Cheers, Leicester. Now get a win away in Pau next weekend and we'll be laughing. Thanks


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#DelaneyEra



Posted By: ScarletBear
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 5:56pm
Originally posted by PritchyTheScarlet PritchyTheScarlet wrote:

Originally posted by PritchyTheScarlet PritchyTheScarlet wrote:

Cardiff Blues leading Leicester 14-10 at the break. Blues the better side, Leicester are awful. Come on, Leicester.

Cheers, Leicester. Now get a win away in Pau next weekend and we'll be laughing. Thanks

I think that is our only hope. Leicester will want home advantage so will aim to won that. Spring will be drier so we will have a better chance of beating what will almost certainly be Bristol away.


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Scarlets before Wales


Posted By: multinational
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 5:57pm
Originally posted by Wil Chips Wil Chips wrote:

Originally posted by 157cb 157cb wrote:


  If Scarlets beat Irish ? and Tigers beat Pau in France next Saturday lunchtime we will qualify,I believe .

  The Tigers will  be playing for a home quarter final .



That’s right Mark. The downside is the Tigers could well send a 2nd string out there now they’ve won the group,

Pau do need 5 points to be sure of qualifying above us mind.

All we can do is go full on for it...I fancy a tasty QF with Bristol being the prize.



Any group with the 2 semi pro sides in them are virtually guaranteed to get 2 qualifiers. Agen have been very disappointing.
 
It all starts Friday. We really need Castres to beat Worcester.
 
If they do then they have more points than the Tigers at the top of their group and (as tigers play first up on Saturday) they will need to win to guarantee a home QF.
 
If Worcester beat Castres then the Dregs will top their group on 20 points so the Tigers will have a home QF regardless (meaning they will probably roll over).
 
However, the tigers will also want (and can get) a home Semi Final as well by beating Pau - so there is plenty of incentive to go there and win.
 
Regardless, I will be driving to Reading with hope on Saturday morning and by 3pm we will know whether we are playing for a QF place or pride.


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History, despite its wrenching pain, cannot be unlived, but if faced with courage, need not be lived again.


Posted By: Why
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 6:18pm
imagine the support we would have in quarter final against Bristol would be epic 

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She asks why i still can't answer. I guess its in the blood.


Posted By: 157cb
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 6:23pm

  With regards the Pau v Tigers game, the selection of both teams will be interesting .

  On Saturday 25th Pau 10th in Top 14 will play Brive in 9th .


Posted By: PritchyTheScarlet
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 6:31pm
Originally posted by ScarletBear ScarletBear wrote:

Originally posted by PritchyTheScarlet PritchyTheScarlet wrote:

Originally posted by PritchyTheScarlet PritchyTheScarlet wrote:

Cardiff Blues leading Leicester 14-10 at the break. Blues the better side, Leicester are awful. Come on, Leicester.

Cheers, Leicester. Now get a win away in Pau next weekend and we'll be laughing. Thanks

I think that is our only hope. Leicester will want home advantage so will aim to won that. Spring will be drier so we will have a better chance of beating what will almost certainly be Bristol away.

It's definitely our only hope. We need to win with a TBP and hope that Pau don't win with a TBP. 


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#DelaneyEra



Posted By: ChrisX
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 6:46pm
If Leicester beat Pau and we get a 5 try win in London Irish the 3 group runners up with come from Groups A, B & C? 

A Worcester win denying Castres a losing bonus or a Castres win would do in Group A?
Dragons will get 5 points at home and finish with 20?

Scarlets to beat London Irish scoring 4 tries in Group B to get us to 19 points and qualify with Toulon. 

Edinburgh to beat Agen to finish with 20 or 21 points.

Group D is not in the race with Bristol qualified and no runner up in contention.

To Group E. Leicester to beat Pau to finish the group 6 from 6, unbeaten and secure a home Q/F. 
Blues can only get to 18 points even with a big home win against Calvisano.
A Pau win though against Leicester can take them to 19 points then its get interesting. 

I think anyway? I hope we have something to play for come next Saturday in Reading, it would make for a great trip.


Posted By: Jones2004
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 6:48pm
Originally posted by Wil Chips Wil Chips wrote:

Originally posted by DropOut22 DropOut22 wrote:

Will i think if worcester win without bp, castres get a bp head to head castres go second. Theyre points difference will be very little compared to ours. So 4-1 worcester or anything but a pau bp win


Worcester win without bp =19pts
Castres get a lbp = 19pts
(/Dragon win the group with 20 pts)

By definition Worcester ( much netter points diff than us) and Drags qualify.
Castres would be second on head to head so if we were to get 5 points we’d be ahead of them and qualify by virtue of better points difference. Therefore we’d qualify ahead of Worcester (3rd place) even though they’d have the same points and bigger points difference than us! Yes, very complicated I know!


Posted By: M.M.
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 6:58pm
Originally posted by ChrisX ChrisX wrote:

If Leicester beat Pau and we get a 5 try win in London Irish the 3 group runners up with come from Groups A, B & C? 

A Worcester win denying Castres a losing bonus or a Castres win would do in Group A?
Dragons will get 5 points at home and finish with 20?

Scarlets to beat London Irish scoring 4 tries in Group B to get us to 19 points and qualify with Toulon. 

Edinburgh to beat Agen to finish with 20 or 21 points.

Group D is not in the race with Bristol qualified and no runner up in contention.

To Group E. Leicester to beat Pau to finish the group 6 from 6, unbeaten and secure a home Q/F. 
Blues can only get to 18 points even with a big home win against Calvisano.
A Pau win though against Leicester can take them to 19 points then its get interesting. 

I think anyway? I hope we have something to play for come next Saturday in Reading, it would make for a great trip.

 
Pau v Leicester kicks off @ 13:00 our time so we will know early on what we have to do. 



Posted By: solva
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 7:35pm
So is it that if Tigers beat Pau we need a five point win v Irish and that’ll do?


Posted By: Jones2004
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 7:40pm
Originally posted by solva solva wrote:

So is it that if Tigers beat Pau we need a five point win v Irish and that’ll do?
Yes, that’s the simplest way for us to qualify.


Posted By: Ffidel Bennett
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 9:54pm
Even if "all" we have to do is get a bonus point win against London Irish (who are out), I wouldn't be over-confident as sides who know that we're desperate to attack and score tries have a knack of frustrating us with a rush defence and the chance of interceptions as we try frantically to get through. So thinking rugby bois, and no ridiculous risks until later on if we're still short of a 4 try win.


Posted By: Scarlet Emperor
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 10:40pm
Any kind of away win is rare for the scarlets these days so I’m just hoping for a win and we’ll see were we go from there!


Posted By: EJPT
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 11:09pm
I think its likely they will experiment with their side, they havent got anything to play for. We might not have anything to play for. I think they will mix it up, youth and experience maybe, with Myler at 10 to steady the game. 


Posted By: Mrfwon
Date Posted: 12 January 2020 at 11:13pm
As it stands, we aren't good enough to get any further than the quarters even if we win away next weekend Embarrassed think being dropped down into the second tier tournament this season was a wake up call for us this season, and now to be fighting to even qualify out of group is another slap in the face of where we really are at. Embarrassed

Hate being negative, but we're way off competing in Europe after what I've watched this weekend in the RCC games.


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Guinness Pro 12 Champions 2017...get in!


Posted By: SA14
Date Posted: 13 January 2020 at 12:52am
I don’t go for the nothing to play for mentality. 


Posted By: Captain
Date Posted: 13 January 2020 at 8:43am
This may be the second tier comp but have a look at the teams in this.
 
Have a look at our group compared to others. No one in our group has been the whipping boys. we are second only losing to Toulon, which looking at the two squads, is not unexpected.
 
Yes we lost on Saturday in a bad 10 minute spell, but overall we are still punching above our weight.
 
We are improving


Posted By: GPR - Rochester
Date Posted: 13 January 2020 at 8:58am
Toulon, Bordeaux, Edinburgh, Bristol, Leicester Tigersare decent teams & give some credibility to the Challenge Cup for sure. Only Toulon & Bordeaux for me would be challenging in the Champions Cup for the last 8 at the moment. 

For our development as a team we are better having our group than say the Dragons or Blues who have the benefit of 10 certain points before they start. Much, of course, depends on how quickly we learn. If we sneek through and play Bristol away we are most definitely in with a chance. If we beat the No 1 seeds away do we then get a home semi? A trip to Marseilles to play Toulon in the final is still a possibility. 


Posted By: M.M.
Date Posted: 13 January 2020 at 8:59am
Originally posted by SA14 SA14 wrote:

I don’t go for the nothing to play for mentality. 

I agree.
 Last Saturday was a huge disappointment for us all, supporters, team, coaches etc. I think most of us thought it could have been a closer game than that. 
As the saying goes, we need to "get back on the horse" straighaway.
After next Saturday's match in Reading we don't have a game until 15th of February when we play Edinburgh, our fierce rivals for a play-off place. I don't think it'd be a good thing going in to that game on the back of 2 defeats.



Posted By: Rich (Bris)
Date Posted: 13 January 2020 at 9:29am
I think Tigers will pick their best team possible next week. They will want to get a home QF (& perhaps semi if others slip up next weekend) and keep their recent improvement going so they hit ground running for their Prem game the week after. There is then no Prem matches for 3 weeks I believe which means their non-England players can have a rest then.

The way it looks at the moment winning the Challenge Cup looks a better chance of Champions Cup next year for them as well.

Here hoping they pick their best team anyway!


Posted By: GPR - Rochester
Date Posted: 13 January 2020 at 9:36am
Originally posted by Rich (Bris) Rich (Bris) wrote:

I think Tigers will pick their best team possible next week. They will want to get a home QF (& perhaps semi if others slip up next weekend) and keep their recent improvement going so they hit ground running for their Prem game the week after. There is then no Prem matches for 3 weeks I believe which means their non-England players can have a rest then.

The way it looks at the moment winning the Challenge Cup looks a better chance of Champions Cup next year for them as well.

Here hoping they pick their best team anyway!

I hope so also. They certainly rested a lot of stars against the Blues. 


Posted By: Rich (Bris)
Date Posted: 13 January 2020 at 9:40am
Mind you, for a lot of those same reasons I think Irish might play their best team as well. But if we at last get a firmish, dry pitch then I certainly think we can win it and the way we pay always means a good chance of 4 tries


Posted By: Sosban bach
Date Posted: 13 January 2020 at 9:49am
Originally posted by Rich (Bris) Rich (Bris) wrote:

Mind you, for a lot of those same reasons I think Irish might play their best team as well. But if we at last get a firmish, dry pitch then I certainly think we can win it and the way we pay always means a good chance of 4 tries
A bit optimistic there I’d say, we haven’t been scoring tries for fun this season think we’ve managed 2 tbp’s this far? Or 3 with the cup?


Posted By: GPR - Rochester
Date Posted: 13 January 2020 at 9:54am
Our mindset has to be to go all out for  4 tries. That means tempo in everything we do. Toulon proved that you don't have to throw hail mary passes and play high risk stuff to score 4 tries even in atrocious conditions. 


Posted By: Rich (Bris)
Date Posted: 13 January 2020 at 10:25am
True Sospan bach but in my (optimistic) eyes a lot of the reason for the lack of tries so far this season has been the weather and state of pitches.


Posted By: solva
Date Posted: 13 January 2020 at 12:20pm
And we don’t have the cutting edge we had two to three years ago


Posted By: ChrisX
Date Posted: 13 January 2020 at 12:49pm
its time to re kindle fond memories and great trips to the Madjeski Stadium - big game - get yourselfs up there, we can still do this


Posted By: Rich (Bris)
Date Posted: 13 January 2020 at 12:53pm
Originally posted by solva solva wrote:

And we don’t have the cutting edge we had two to three years ago


Can we say that yet? This season has been so disrupted due to RWC and Babas match and then, with all non-injured players available, it's been a case of playing in dreadful weather (part from v Os who we spanked)


Posted By: solva
Date Posted: 13 January 2020 at 1:11pm
Looks like it to me. We don't have the dynamism of a couple of years ago with Beirne and Barclay etc


Posted By: Grammar School Boy
Date Posted: 13 January 2020 at 1:40pm
Originally posted by solva solva wrote:

Looks like it to me. We don't have the dynamism of a couple of years ago with Beirne and Barclay etc

No midfield acceleration does not help


Posted By: GPR - Rochester
Date Posted: 13 January 2020 at 1:44pm
Why do we continue to not select our two quickest centres available - Baldwin & Asquith? 


Posted By: ScarletBear
Date Posted: 13 January 2020 at 1:58pm
Originally posted by Rich (Bris) Rich (Bris) wrote:

Originally posted by solva solva wrote:

And we don’t have the cutting edge we had two to three years ago


Can we say that yet? This season has been so disrupted due to RWC and Babas match and then, with all non-injured players available, it's been a case of playing in dreadful weather (part from v Os who we spanked)

This is the best pack (plus depth) we have had in my lifetime. In wet weather, that Toulon pack was a juggernaut. I don't think our front row is playing well enough yet, but that will change.

However, our backs have yet to click. We have a fine back 3 (improved by Liam) , scrum half, fly half - with some depth. Johnny McN seems out of form a tad. But I am not enthused by our centres - Hadleigh and Steff. They are not the solution. When Foxy gets back next season, will he be the same as of old? An area to develop and recruit.

Brad got his tactics wrong on Saturday.

The future is bright, shore up the midfield and get a top quality coach for next season and we will be fine.

Do we think that the quality of other rugby teams has risen this past season or two? I.e. the benchmark has been raised. I am not overly convinced, but it is true we are top half of P14 and that is it, To be top 2-3 we cant be playing away so poorly.


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Scarlets before Wales


Posted By: turkishrebel
Date Posted: 13 January 2020 at 2:12pm
got to wonder where is fonotia? he has flair and ability, we are also not playing asquith enough too. he has the ability to make things happen. I do think we have backs with pace. just not been able to get them on the pitch at the same time.

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Once a Scarlet, always a Scarlet!


Posted By: GPR - Rochester
Date Posted: 13 January 2020 at 2:18pm
Originally posted by turkishrebel turkishrebel wrote:

got to wonder where is fonotia? he has flair and ability, we are also not playing asquith enough too. he has the ability to make things happen. I do think we have backs with pace. just not been able to get them on the pitch at the same time.

Well Fonotia is still injured but Baldwin & Asquith area available just not being selected. When was the last time any of us can honestly say that Hadleigh had a good game for us? 


Posted By: Ffidel Bennett
Date Posted: 13 January 2020 at 3:58pm
I'd like to see the following against LI

15 Halfpenny
14 Conbeer
13 Asquith
12 Steff Hughes (capt)
11 Steff Evans
10 AOB
9 Cawdor
8 Cassiem
7 Jac
6 Shingler
5 Tex
4 Ball
3 Samson
2 Ken
1 Wyn
bench
16 Ryan
17 Rob
18 Kruger
19 Lousi
20 Rawlins
21 Hardy
22 Dan
23 Baldwin

It won't happen as Mooar will have to start Parkes and McNicholl to keep Pivac, happy, although on form they hardly deserve to be included even in the 23.


Posted By: lofty evans
Date Posted: 13 January 2020 at 4:12pm
Originally posted by GPR - Rochester GPR - Rochester wrote:

Originally posted by turkishrebel turkishrebel wrote:

got to wonder where is fonotia? he has flair and ability, we are also not playing asquith enough too. he has the ability to make things happen. I do think we have backs with pace. just not been able to get them on the pitch at the same time.

Well Fonotia is still injured but Baldwin & Asquith area available just not being selected. When was the last time any of us can honestly say that Hadleigh had a good game for us? 

Agree about Hadleigh....I've posted before his best games were before Wales .....Steff and Hads together are the most ineffective centre partnership I've ever seen in Scarlett tbh. 

And agree about Asquith and Baldwin....they should be selected and let's see what happens.  We are missing Foxys brain and skillset, we should be looking at his long term replacement. 


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In 1972, Roy Bergiers scored that try and said "that was for you lofty"

"All you have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us"


Posted By: lofty evans
Date Posted: 13 January 2020 at 4:13pm
Originally posted by Ffidel Bennett Ffidel Bennett wrote:

I'd like to see the following against LI

15 Halfpenny
14 Conbeer
13 Asquith
12 Steff Hughes (capt)
11 Steff Evans
10 AOB
9 Cawdor
8 Cassiem
7 Jac
6 Shingler
5 Tex
4 Ball
3 Samson
2 Ken
1 Wyn
bench
16 Ryan
17 Rob
18 Kruger
19 Lousi
20 Rawlins
21 Hardy
22 Dan
23 Baldwin

It won't happen as Mooar will have to start Parkes and McNicholl to keep Pivac, happy, although on form they hardly deserve to be included even in the 23.

Agree Hadleigh on form shouldn't be selected at all....he is patently not on form.



-------------
In 1972, Roy Bergiers scored that try and said "that was for you lofty"

"All you have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us"


Posted By: EJPT
Date Posted: 13 January 2020 at 4:25pm
We need to use Parkes whilst he is still with us, give Hughes a rest and play Asquith who looks like the only player who can actually play 13.


Posted By: Huwbach
Date Posted: 13 January 2020 at 4:47pm
our best move Saturday came when Dan was on - running ‘around the corner’ I’d start him Saturday. Give Hadleigh 40 mins if not working get Asquith on. Maybe even start with Conbeer instead of McNicoll. 


Posted By: Tim Opolis
Date Posted: 13 January 2020 at 4:57pm
Pau v Leicester is on BT Sport/ESPN Channel 423 on Sky at 12:45. Its up against Football so we need a bar that will stick it on for us or somewhere that has a multi screen option. Anyone know the pubs in Reading and can come up with a suggestion?


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Tymor nesa Duw, plis tymor nesa.


Posted By: miaow
Date Posted: 13 January 2020 at 6:10pm
We've been awful at collecting try bonus point wins for years now. Going back at leat 2-3 seasons, even when it seemed easy.

Hope it happens but more confident/accurate/better teams would have squeezed Toulon in the 2nd half, who definitely let up after about 60 minutes, and collected 1 if not 2 bonus points.  As it was we were still way off.

It'll have to 'click' if it does happen. The biggest shame was the ref out in Toulon who gifted them a non-penalty on halfway with 2 minutes left to get them back in our 22. Did everything to win that game and we'd be basically qualified by now had that happened.


Posted By: miaow
Date Posted: 13 January 2020 at 6:16pm
Originally posted by GPR - Rochester GPR - Rochester wrote:

Why do we continue to not select our two quickest centres available - Baldwin & Asquith? 


I would assume there are question marks over Asquith's consistency/discipline over 80 minutes, and how strong he is. Great footballer but he doesn't look like the most solid option to start against the best teams. Tbh not sure we've had that since Scott left unfortunately, though.


Posted By: Dic Penderyn
Date Posted: 13 January 2020 at 7:50pm
Originally posted by GPR - Rochester GPR - Rochester wrote:

Why do we continue to not select our two quickest centres available - Baldwin & Asquith? 

Well,GOR.as Aneurin Bevan once said,"compared to Welsh rugby,politics in Westminster is in its infancy"..



Posted By: Wasp
Date Posted: 13 January 2020 at 9:17pm
Originally posted by Mrfwon Mrfwon wrote:

As it stands, we aren't good enough to get any further than the quarters even if we win away next weekend Embarrassed think being dropped down into the second tier tournament this season was a wake up call for us this season, and now to be fighting to even qualify out of group is another slap in the face of where we really are at. Embarrassed

Hate being negative, but we're way off competing in Europe after what I've watched this weekend in the RCC games.
We're good enough to beat any team in this comp in a KO game, especially in the Spring. Our failing is the inability to adapt to arm wrestle conditions and poor weather.
Remember Bath at home in the Champs Cup?


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We're still still here!


Posted By: 157cb
Date Posted: 13 January 2020 at 9:21pm
Originally posted by Wasp Wasp wrote:

Originally posted by Mrfwon Mrfwon wrote:

As it stands, we aren't good enough to get any further than the quarters even if we win away next weekend Embarrassed think being dropped down into the second tier tournament this season was a wake up call for us this season, and now to be fighting to even qualify out of group is another slap in the face of where we really are at. Embarrassed

Hate being negative, but we're way off competing in Europe after what I've watched this weekend in the RCC games.
We're good enough to beat any team in this comp in a KO game, especially in the Spring. Our failing is the inability to adapt to arm wrestle conditions and poor weather.
Remember Bath at home in the Champs Cup?

 We did not play the conditions well ,but to play Toulon on Sunday and then Bath on the Friday was always a game to far .


Posted By: miaow
Date Posted: 13 January 2020 at 11:30pm
Originally posted by Wasp Wasp wrote:

Originally posted by Mrfwon Mrfwon wrote:

As it stands, we aren't good enough to get any further than the quarters even if we win away next weekend Embarrassed think being dropped down into the second tier tournament this season was a wake up call for us this season, and now to be fighting to even qualify out of group is another slap in the face of where we really are at. Embarrassed

Hate being negative, but we're way off competing in Europe after what I've watched this weekend in the RCC games.
We're good enough to beat any team in this comp in a KO game, especially in the Spring. Our failing is the inability to adapt to arm wrestle conditions and poor weather.
Remember Bath at home in the Champs Cup?


Didn't see that against Toulon tbh. Their pack was full of some of the best pros in the game. Not just in Europe, in the world. Messam, Etzebeth...these are some of the best of the best. Bath are not Toulon. Toulon are on a huge run of success since we last played them.

We can beat most teams, we can even sneak past Toulon, but reality is we've been massively up and down and inconsistent from one game to the next this season so far. Brad hasn't got the flow of European rugby yet, and won't. What it takes to be consistently good week to week and not lose games you should be winning.

If we play Bristol away, we're underdogs.


Posted By: GPR - Rochester
Date Posted: 14 January 2020 at 7:52am
Originally posted by Ffidel Bennett Ffidel Bennett wrote:

I'd like to see the following against LI

15 Halfpenny
14 Conbeer
13 Asquith
12 Steff Hughes (capt)
11 Steff Evans
10 AOB
9 Cawdor
8 Cassiem
7 Jac
6 Shingler
5 Tex
4 Ball
3 Samson
2 Ken
1 Wyn
bench
16 Ryan
17 Rob
18 Kruger
19 Lousi
20 Rawlins
21 Hardy
22 Dan
23 Baldwin

It won't happen as Mooar will have to start Parkes and McNicholl to keep Pivac, happy, although on form they hardly deserve to be included even in the 23.

Like the look of that team Ffidel. Morgan replacing Josh is a good call. Josh needs a good rest and work on his technique. Much will depend on fitness particularly Fonotia (who we have missed recently) & Blade. If fit I would have Blade on the bench instead of Rawlins. McNichol & Parkes do not deserve selection on current form. I am mystified what has happened to Baldwin - he is not down as injured. He gets his first start at centre against Bayonne, does well & then disappears. 


Posted By: GPR - Rochester
Date Posted: 14 January 2020 at 7:59am
Originally posted by miaow miaow wrote:

Originally posted by GPR - Rochester GPR - Rochester wrote:

Why do we continue to not select our two quickest centres available - Baldwin & Asquith? 


I would assume there are question marks over Asquith's consistency/discipline over 80 minutes, and how strong he is. Great footballer but he doesn't look like the most solid option to start against the best teams. Tbh not sure we've had that since Scott left unfortunately, though.
#
Don't disagree with you on Asquith's overall  80 minute game but he is quicker than Steff who, on form, is our natural 12. Also Asquith makes things happen in attack with good kicking and superb offloading ability. Of course neither are Scott but sadly he is not available. It is pretty clear to all of us that our options at 12 should be Steff, Asquith or Hadleigh & at 13 Fonotia, Baldwin or Asquith but Brad for some reason doesn't agree. 

We have no option on Saturday but to go looking for a bonus point win so it must for me be Baldwin or Asquith at 13 assuming Fonotia not fit. 


Posted By: EJPT
Date Posted: 14 January 2020 at 8:51am
Hughes on the bench, with Parkes and Asquith centre combo. Cassiem and Tex have to start. Macleod has been one of the best 7’s in the league all season a couple games off form isn’t enough to drop him in my opinion. 


Posted By: ap sior
Date Posted: 17 January 2020 at 9:51pm
Castres win Pool 1 with 23pts, Dragons second with 20 pts.

Leicester must now beat Pau to secure a home QF, hopefully that will benefit us. 


Posted By: ap sior
Date Posted: 17 January 2020 at 9:54pm
Pau need a BP win to claim a QF spot. 


Posted By: Huwbach
Date Posted: 17 January 2020 at 9:58pm
Originally posted by ap sior ap sior wrote:

Pau need a BP win to claim a QF spot. 

So if we win we are through? If Pau don’t win? 


Posted By: Rich (Bris)
Date Posted: 17 January 2020 at 10:00pm
Tigers resting or benching some key players unfortunately. Hopefully those player's they pick who are normally 2nd choice will go out to prove their worth and Pau will underestimate them.

15 George Worth

14 Adam Thompstone

13 Manu Tuilagi (c)

12 Noel Reid

11 Rory Hughes

10 Tom Hardwick

9 Harry Simmons

1 Facundo Gigena

2 Tatafu Polota-Nau

3 Joe Heyes

4 Joe Batley

5 Will Spencer

6 Harry Wells

7 Ifereimi Boladau

8 Sione Kalamafoni

Replacements

16 Jake Kerr

17 Greg Bateman

18 Dan Cole

19 Sam Lewis

20 Jordan Taufua

21 Ben White

22 Sam Costelow

23 Jonah Holmes


Posted By: minded
Date Posted: 17 January 2020 at 10:02pm
Originally posted by ap sior ap sior wrote:

Castres win Pool 1 with 23pts, Dragons second with 20 pts.

Leicester must now beat Pau to secure a home QF, hopefully that will benefit us. 
Leicester only need 1 point to secure home QF to my understanding?

-------------
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPLe3ApXjW4&list=PL576FE48C1F044909&index=1" rel="nofollow - Scarlets Tries of the Season 2009 - 2019


Posted By: ap sior
Date Posted: 17 January 2020 at 10:04pm
Originally posted by Huwbach Huwbach wrote:

Originally posted by ap sior ap sior wrote:

Pau need a BP win to claim a QF spot. 

So if we win we are through? If Pau don’t win? 

We need a BP win and for Pau to lose. Pau can't win their group but could still claim a QF spot, but need a BP win to be sure. 


Posted By: 157cb
Date Posted: 17 January 2020 at 10:19pm
 If Pau lose? and Blues 18pts 3 wins and us 18pts 4 wins ,do we go through .


Posted By: miaow
Date Posted: 17 January 2020 at 10:51pm
No idea on the 18pts head to head, but I'd say it's 70:30 against us qualifying at the moment. The Blues are at the mercy of us having an extra point. Edinburgh will likely clean up or at least reach 20 points, leaving it a shootout in Pool 5 between Pau and Leicester, and less likely, the Blues. It's not out of the question that we qualify and Pau lose with us getting a bonus point win, but any other results and we're struggling.


Posted By: minded
Date Posted: 17 January 2020 at 11:32pm
Originally posted by 157cb 157cb wrote:

 If Pau lose? and Blues 18pts 3 wins and us 18pts 4 wins ,do we go through .
Does it come down to points difference in the first instance? They might rack up a cricket score tomorrow.

-------------
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPLe3ApXjW4&list=PL576FE48C1F044909&index=1" rel="nofollow - Scarlets Tries of the Season 2009 - 2019


Posted By: minded
Date Posted: 17 January 2020 at 11:34pm
(c) If ranking remains unresolved and/or if clubs have not played each other previously in the pool stage, qualification/ranking will be determined as follows:
(i) the best aggregate points difference from the pool stage; or
(ii) if equal, the number of tries scored in the pool stage; or
(iii) if equal, the club with the fewest number of players suspended under Disciplinary Rules in the pool stage; or
(iv) if unresolved, by drawing lots.


-------------
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPLe3ApXjW4&list=PL576FE48C1F044909&index=1" rel="nofollow - Scarlets Tries of the Season 2009 - 2019


Posted By: scarletnut
Date Posted: 18 January 2020 at 8:18am
Originally posted by ap sior ap sior wrote:

Originally posted by Huwbach Huwbach wrote:

Originally posted by ap sior ap sior wrote:

Pau need a BP win to claim a QF spot. 

So if we win we are through? If Pau don’t win? 

We need a BP win and for Pau to lose. Pau can't win their group but could still claim a QF spot, but need a BP win to be sure. 
It would be better for Pau to lose but we just need them not to claim maximum points 

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I still wake up late at night and think of what might have been when tim stimpson hit that jammy penalty1


Posted By: GPR - Rochester
Date Posted: 18 January 2020 at 8:25am
Basically we need Pau to lose & we must get a bonus point win. If we get to 18 points we will not better the Blues as they are going to get a cricket score against Calvisano & we are only 4 points better at the moment. Edinburgh should secure a 5 pointer at home to Agen which gives them the 1st best runner up spot; Dragons are currently 2nd so our only chance rests on Pau losing & getting that 3rd runner up spot with 19 pts. If successful we will face the no 1 seeds away which looks like Bristol. Could have been worse could have been Toulon or Bordeaux. 

Weather conditions are with us tonight dry & crisp. Need to see that offloading game which saw off Bayonne & Ospreys so very puzzling why Angus not starting!!!!!


Posted By: solva
Date Posted: 18 January 2020 at 10:50am
Whatever, we shall know our fate by four o'clock. If it's still possible then I expect they'll be looking for the Mad Stad roof somewhere near Basingstoke later tonight.....


Posted By: SAV
Date Posted: 18 January 2020 at 1:08pm
Pau 2 tries 

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as all the coaches left stradey , bound for nottingham , a sign on the m4 at hendy said , please can the last person close the door behind them , memories



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