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Some Statistical Analysis on Attendance

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joni_bach View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote joni_bach Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Some Statistical Analysis on Attendance
    Posted: 16 April 2018 at 7:35pm
Following the recent attendance v population statistics on here, I was inspired to create some of my own.

I was bored this weekend and decided to compile all the attendances of every Scarlets league and European game since regionalisation, and since the move to PYS, plus a handful of other variables to see if I could find which ones contribute the most to attendance figures. 

Fortunately, I have access to statistical software in Swansea University and was able to run the figures through the computer today and thought someone might find something interesting in them.

Feel free to comment, question, criticise or come up with any other suggestions of what I could do.

Dependent Variable: ATTENDANCE (Since Regionalisation)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/16/18   Time: 10:45
Sample: 1 126
Included observations: 126
HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed
        bandwidth = 5.0000)
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.   Interpretation
C 5126.638 558.2519 9.183378 0 5126 fans attend each game regardless of other variables
CHAMPIONS 1122.114 453.8765 2.472289 0.0149 1122 extra fans per game as a result of winning the league in the previous season
KOBH 1520.991 480.8412 3.163188 0.002 Kick off on a bank holiday increases attendance by 1521 (compared to Saturday night kick off)
KOFRI -656.811 425.1448 -1.54491 0.1251 Kick off on a Friday night decreases attendance by 657 (compared to Saturday night kickoff)
KOSATPM -280.0473 418.1731 -0.66969 0.5044 (Not significant) Kick off on a Saturday afternoon has no effect on attendance (compared to Saturday night kick off)
KOSUN -993.9712 548.5442 -1.81202 0.0726 Kick off on a Sunday decreases attendance by 994 (compared to Saturday night kick off)
MATCHEURO 1150.822 360.4109 3.193084 0.0018 1151 more fans attend a game if it is a European game 
MATCHOSP 5499.22 420.2337 13.0861 0 5499 more fans attend a game if it is against the Ospreys
MATCHPLAYOFF 3890.253 632.6721 6.148925 0 3890 more fans attend a game if it is a play-off
WALESINT 147.2699 45.83345 3.213153 0.0017 For every one Wales international playing, 147 extra fans attend
WINPC 22.48118 5.693068 3.948869 0.0001 For every 1 percent increase in home wins in the current season, 22 extra fans attend
R-squared 0.669861     Mean dependent var 8035.849
Adjusted R-squared 0.641154     S.D. dependent var 2595.147
S.E. of regression 1554.591     Akaike info criterion 17.61907
Sum squared resid 2.78E+08     Schwarz criterion 17.86668
Log likelihood -1099.001     Hannan-Quinn criter. 17.71966
F-statistic 23.33384     Durbin-Watson stat 1.732496
Prob(F-statistic) 0     Wald F-statistic 585.0318
Prob(Wald F-statistic) 0
Dependent Variable: ATTENDANCE (Since move to PYS)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/16/18   Time: 13:45
Sample: 1 134
Included observations: 134
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.   Interpretation
C 5339.383 695.1794 7.680583 0 5339 fans attend each game regardless of other variables
CHAMPIONS 1088.579 493.2035 2.20716 0.0292 1089 extra fans per game as a result of winning the league in the previous season
FREETV -66.68161 388.7985 -0.17151 0.8641 (Not Significant) No significant effect of free-to-air TV on match attendance
KOBH 1548.599 803.6636 1.926925 0.0563 Kick off on a bank holiday increases attendance by 1548 (compared to Saturday night kickoff)
KOFRI -578.4987 379.3459 -1.52499 0.1298 Kick off on a Friday night decreases attendance by 578 (compared to Saturday night kick off)
KOSATPM -146.3192 388.6566 -0.37647 0.7072 (Not Significant) Kick off on a Saturday afternoon has no significant affect on attendence compared to evening kick off
KOSUN -967.8955 497.677 -1.94483 0.0541 Kick off on a Sunday decreases attendance by 968 (compared to Saturday night kick off)
MATCHEURO 1034.29 439.4011 2.353862 0.0202 1034 more fans attend a game if it is a European game 
MATCHOSP 5461.954 660.5702 8.268544 0 5462 more fans attend a game if it is against the Ospreys
MATCHPLAYOFF 3879.203 1847.798 2.099365 0.0378 3879 more fans attend a game if it is a play-off
WALESINT 145.8733 57.02332 2.558134 0.0117 For every one Wales international playing, 145 extra fans attend
WINPC 20.26104 7.381616 2.744797 0.007 For every 1 percent increase in home wins in the current season, 20 extra fans attend
R-squared 0.649063     Mean dependent var 8009.567
Adjusted R-squared 0.617421     S.D. dependent var 2548.256
S.E. of regression 1576.171     Akaike info criterion 17.64867
Sum squared resid 3.03E+08     Schwarz criterion 17.90818
Log likelihood -1170.461     Hannan-Quinn criter. 17.75413
F-statistic 20.51281     Durbin-Watson stat 1.825468
Prob(F-statistic) 0
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Wasp Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 April 2018 at 8:00pm
Mind if I post these results on Twitter?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote joni_bach Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 April 2018 at 8:02pm
Originally posted by Wasp Wasp wrote:

Mind if I post these results on Twitter?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Wasp Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 April 2018 at 8:16pm
Originally posted by joni_bach joni_bach wrote:

Originally posted by Wasp Wasp wrote:

Mind if I post these results on Twitter?


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Edited by Wasp - 16 April 2018 at 8:17pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote SA14 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 April 2018 at 8:18pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote minded Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 April 2018 at 8:25pm
Excellent thread
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Owen111 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 April 2018 at 8:38pm
Nice work
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote John Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 April 2018 at 9:08pm
Why are there fewer observations since regionalisation than since the move to PyS given that the first is longer ago than the second?

So the move to PYS increased attendances inspite of it occuring at a time of relatively ordinary performances? Saturday is the best day of the weekend and in view of next year's shift to only pay tv, it seems that there will be no increase in attendance. Its good to be able to quantify some of these variables although some, like the number of home wins and the number of internationals are interconnected.

Thank you for your hard work....


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote joni_bach Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 April 2018 at 9:20pm
Originally posted by John John wrote:

Why are there fewer observations since regionalisation than since the move to PyS given that the first is longer ago than the second?

So the move to PYS increased attendances inspite of it occuring at a time of relatively ordinary performances? Saturday is the best day of the weekend and in view of next year's shift to only pay tv, it seems that there will be no increase in attendance. Its good to be able to quantify some of these variables although some, like the number of home wins and the number of internationals are interconnected.

Thank you for your hard work....



Good spot! I originally had 199 observations since regionalisation. I suspect that the software removed some observations because of heteroscedasticity in the data. Not sure how much that means to you! I'll look into it tomorrow. Thanks.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Micro Duck Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 April 2018 at 8:54am
Well done on putting so much work in. Very interesting.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote SA14 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 April 2018 at 9:08am
No effect on if a match is on TV? I find that hard to believe.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rob o'r Bont Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 April 2018 at 9:32am
Not sure what the Bank Holiday stats are telling us.  These would be  the local derbies and so we would expect attendances to be up in any case.  Or does the software take account of this?
That's the Scarlets, its in their DNA.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rich (Bris) Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 April 2018 at 9:32am
Eh is my phone having problems reading this? I can see nothing there to understand. Just lots of figures with nothing to say what they relate to and things like Durbin-Watson, someone called Hannah Quinn and KOBH etc. I'll open on pc to see if it makes sense on there
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rob o'r Bont Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 April 2018 at 10:09am
Originally posted by Rich (Bris) Rich (Bris) wrote:

Eh is my phone having problems reading this? I can see nothing there to understand. Just lots of figures with nothing to say what they relate to and things like Durbin-Watson, someone called Hannah Quinn and KOBH etc. I'll open on pc to see if it makes sense on there
It's not the easiest thing in the world to read Rich and I guess on a mobile phone it's virtually impossible. Smile

Having said that - it's well worth the effort to try and understand.
That's the Scarlets, its in their DNA.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote reesytheexile Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 April 2018 at 12:09pm
I will stick to the Interpretation aspect only !! Interesting ..
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote theieuan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 April 2018 at 12:17pm
SPSS does have its uses then! Smile
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