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Some Statistical Analysis on Attendance

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Rich (Bris) View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rich (Bris) Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 April 2018 at 12:32pm
Thanks Rob
Yep just looking now on PC and much better (noggin me - although I turned the phone horizontally, I didn't scroll to the right enough to see all the interpretation). Good work Joni

Edited by Rich (Bris) - 17 April 2018 at 12:37pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote joni_bach Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 April 2018 at 12:32pm
Originally posted by John John wrote:

Why are there fewer observations since regionalisation than since the move to PyS given that the first is longer ago than the second?

So the move to PYS increased attendances inspite of it occuring at a time of relatively ordinary performances? Saturday is the best day of the weekend and in view of next year's shift to only pay tv, it seems that there will be no increase in attendance. Its good to be able to quantify some of these variables although some, like the number of home wins and the number of internationals are interconnected.

Thank you for your hard work....



I've realised why there was missing data for the stats since regionalisation. The software dismissed the observations where I didn't have information about free-to-air TV. Here is the revised data for 2003/04 - present. Please note that when you look at the data over a longer time-period, it is more difficult to establish relationships. We're comparing different home grounds for a start. For example, this data shows that winning the domestic championship has no significant effect on next season's attendances. This is true for when we won in 2003/04 but not true for 2016/17. You can read into this what you want (i.e. fans more loyal in 2003/04, smaller ground capacity) but on average the "2003/04 effect" cancels out the "2016/17 effect". This is why if you want relevant statistics, it's probably best to look at the PYS data rather than the data since 2003/04.

Dependent Variable: ATTENDANCE
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/17/18   Time: 12:06
Sample: 1 198
Included observations: 197
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.   Interpretation
C 5363.654 534.3685 10.03737 0 5363 fans attend each game regardless of other variables
CHAMPIONS 411.3662 341.2282 1.205546 0.2295 (not significant) Being champions last season has no significant affect on attendance
KOBH 1630.371 705.3552 2.311418 0.0219 Kick off on a bank holiday increases attendance by 1630 (compared to Saturday night kick off)
KOFRI -338.9818 332.8834 -1.01832 0.3098 (not significant) Kick off on a Friday night has no significant difference to attendance
KOSATPM -363.15 332.7979 -1.0912 0.2766 (not significant) Kick off on a Saturday night has no significant difference (compared to Saturday night kick off)
KOSUN -1289.581 430.2235 -2.99747 0.0031 Kick off on a Sunday decreases attendance by 1290 (compared to Saturday night kick off)
MATCHEURO 1191.333 299.0743 3.983402 0.0001 1191 extra fans attend a game if it is a European game
MATCHOSP 5554.988 626.178 8.871261 0 5555 extra fans attend a game if it is against the Ospreys
MATCHPLAYOFF 3905.523 1199.374 3.256302 0.0013 3905 extra fans attend a game if it is a play-off
WALESINT 195.7043 51.51144 3.79924 0.0002 195 extra fans attend a game for every Welsh international playing
WINPC 12.29727 4.758578 2.584231 0.0105 For every 1% increase in home wins in the current season, 12 extra fans attend
R-squared 0.574593     Mean dependent var 7698.746
Adjusted R-squared 0.551722     S.D. dependent var 2370.594
S.E. of regression 1587.198     Akaike info criterion 17.63155
Sum squared resid 4.69E+08     Schwarz criterion 17.81487
Log likelihood -1725.707     Hannan-Quinn criter. 17.70576
F-statistic 25.12284     Durbin-Watson stat 1.660806
Prob(F-statistic) 0
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote joni_bach Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 April 2018 at 12:37pm
Originally posted by Rob o'r Bont Rob o'r Bont wrote:

Not sure what the Bank Holiday stats are telling us.  These would be  the local derbies and so we would expect attendances to be up in any case.  Or does the software take account of this?

You're right, you can't read into it and say "attendances are higher because it's a bank holiday", it's more likely that it's because they are local derbies against the Blues or Dragons. When I have time, I'm going to have a look to see if I can control for them too. It's just tricky because the more variables you include, the less robust the analysis is but I'll work on it. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote John Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 April 2018 at 12:39pm
Thanks for that. So now there is no significant difference in friday night attendances compared to saturday. And all the posts about that on here. All the moaning and groaning- much of which I did! But there is alot of interesting data here. Thank you for it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote John Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 April 2018 at 12:41pm
Originally posted by joni_bach joni_bach wrote:

Originally posted by Rob o'r Bont Rob o'r Bont wrote:

Not sure what the Bank Holiday stats are telling us.  These would be  the local derbies and so we would expect attendances to be up in any case.  Or does the software take account of this?

You're right, you can't read into it and say "attendances are higher because it's a bank holiday", it's more likely that it's because they are local derbies against the Blues or Dragons. When I have time, I'm going to have a look to see if I can control for them too. It's just tricky because the more variables you include, the less robust the analysis is but I'll work on it. 


But the fewer variables you take account of, the less robust the analysis is also!! Big smileWink
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote joni_bach Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 April 2018 at 1:54pm
Originally posted by John John wrote:

Thanks for that. So now there is no significant difference in friday night attendances compared to saturday. And all the posts about that on here. All the moaning and groaning- much of which I did! But there is alot of interesting data here. Thank you for it.

Well, if you look at the more relevant data from seasons at PYS, Friday night kick offs lose about 500-odd fans and Sunday kick-offs lose close to 1000 but it's the time on a Saturday (e.g. 3pm v 7.35) that makes no difference. Still, I think we're still allowed to have a moan about what time on a Saturday we'd prefer.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 October 2018 at 3:22pm
Not sure when you last ran the numbers on this (great work btw)

Could be interesting to compare last year's attendances with this year's.

Pro14 - Opposition - Attendance - to nearest 500
2nd Sept 2017 - Southern K.  - 9,108 - 9k
23rd Sept 2017 - Edinburgh - 8,088 - 8k
29th Sept 2017 - Connacht - 7,693 - 7.5k
28th Oct 2017  - Cardiff Blues - 9,003 - 9k
3rd Nov 2017 - Benneton - 8,007 - 8k
26th Dec 2017  - Ospreys - 14,509 - 14.5k
5th Jan 2018  - Dragons - 9,347 - 9k
24th Feb 2018  - Ulster  - 6,941 - 7k
9th Mar 2018 - Leinster - 9,108 - 9k
7th April 2018  - Glasgow - 10,076 - 10k
5th May 2018 - Cheetahs QF - 7,105 - 7k

ECC - Opposition - Attendance - to nearest 500
20th Oct 2017  - Bath - 11,479 - 11.5k
9th Dec 2017 - Benneton - 6,856 - 7k
20th Jan 2018 - Toulon - 14,476 - 14.5k
30th Mar 2018  - La Rochelle - 15,373 - 15.5k


Pulled from Wales Online Article. 
Avg Attendace 
2015-16: 7,290
2016-17: 6,809
2017-18: 9,256
Since '03: 7,612

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 October 2018 at 3:45pm
Here's the attendances from Pro14 website so far.

Pro14 - Opposition - Attendance - Last Year - Difference
8th Sept 2018  - Leinster   - 7,258 - 9,108 - -1,850
15th Sept 2018 - Benneton - 7,180 - 8,007 - -827
29th Sept 2018 - Southern K. - 7,529 - 9,108 - -1,849
6th Oct 2018  - Ospreys - 12,012 - 14,509 - -2,497
23rd Nov 2018 - Ulster - -
29th Dec 2018 - Cardiff Blues -
5th Jan 2019 - Dragons - -
24th Feb 2019 - Cheetahs - -
2nd Mar 2019 - Munster - - -
5th Apr 2019 - Edinburgh - - -
12th Apr 2019 - Zebre - - -

ECC - Opposition - Attendance - Last Year - Difference
13th Oct 2018 - Racing 92 - - -
7th Dec 2018 - Ulster - -
12th Jan 2019 - Leicester -

We shall see how we go against Racing this Sat!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roy munster Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 October 2018 at 5:24pm
Blinking heck, the exact same game for game averages are way down , thats about 1750 per match? wth?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ScarletBear Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 October 2018 at 5:47pm
Originally posted by roy munster roy munster wrote:

Blinking heck, the exact same game for game averages are way down , thats about 1750 per match? wth?

Somewhat explainable

Kings game was our first game as Champions
Ospreys game was over Christmas
Benetton close enough
Leinster is just down
Scarlets before Wales
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 October 2018 at 6:03pm
The fact that Leinster was down almost 20% should be a surprise considering all the e-mail promotion I recieved and it was a saturday afternoon KO.

Last year's game was on a Friday night, horrible weather and during the international period without stars.

Seems strange that this year's didn't do so well.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 157cb Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 October 2018 at 6:32pm
Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

The fact that Leinster was down almost 20% should be a surprise considering all the e-mail promotion I recieved and it was a saturday afternoon KO.

Last year's game was on a Friday night, horrible weather and during the international period without star
Seems strange that this year's didn't do so well.

  The Leinster game was a 19.35 ko on a Saturday night not great time  for anyone with young families and for supporters who travel from long distances .
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Wasp Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 October 2018 at 7:49pm
It's clear and obvious that attendance is down this year. Slightly worrying I guess, that it's so hard to get Welsh people to buy in to attending rugby in the way that they do with football. 

Now I'm the first to bang the population drum when our detractors compare us to Irish clubs, so maybe we should be content with 7.5k crowds, but it's going to be hard to swallow a decline on last season when we performed so well in Europe. 

The Racing game is not selling particularly notably. A quick glance at the online system shows the corner blocks as almost entirely empty. (When S1, S12 and N27 fill up that's normally a very good sign)

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote joni_bach Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 October 2018 at 7:53pm
Well my model shows that being the current champions increases attendance by 1122, so that explains about 64% of the 1750 per game drop in attendance. 

The prediction that not being on free-to-air tv won't have any effect on attendance seems to be holding up so far. 

Using the model, the predicted attendance on Saturday will be about 9580, which is made up of:

5126 regular fans
1151 extra fans because it's a European game
1470 extra fans if we have all possible Wales internationals playing
1833 extra fans because of our 5/6 win ratio

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Wasp Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 October 2018 at 7:58pm
Originally posted by joni_bach joni_bach wrote:

Well my model shows that being the current champions increases attendance by 1122, so that explains about 64% of the 1750 per game drop in attendance. 

The prediction that not being on free-to-air tv won't have any effect on attendance seems to be holding up so far. 

Using the model, the predicted attendance on Saturday will be about 9580, which is made up of:

5126 regular fans
1151 extra fans because it's a European game
1470 extra fans if we have all possible Wales internationals playing
1833 extra fans because of our 5/6 win ratio

Really interesting stuff, thanks. Is there a simplistic answer to where the 5126 comes from?

9580 is looking ambitious to me, I'd be delighted to see that. The weather forecast can't be helping though I'm sure


Edited by Wasp - 10 October 2018 at 8:00pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote M.M. Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 October 2018 at 8:24pm
We have upwards of 5,000 season ticket holders this season. 
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