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Some Statistical Analysis on Attendance

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Matthew Cardey View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Matthew Cardey Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 October 2018 at 8:29pm
Think, with all the success Leinster had last year and the rivalry we are starting to create with them, we should be very disappointed with that crowd. Saturday is a massive game for us, biggest of the season so far, against world class players, and we are hoping to get 9k? We need to sell tickets in the east or west stand for a fiver, kids go for free? just get people through the gates. It creates a better atmosphere and makes people want to come back. Are we handing out flags for the game saturday? We need to run more promotions, maybe get an european season ticket for people wanting to come to the home champions cup games. Could there be a choir singing half time? could there be a band pitch side?
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Wasp View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Wasp Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 October 2018 at 8:31pm
Originally posted by M.M. M.M. wrote:

We have upwards of 5,000 season ticket holders this season. 
Great stuff. Diolch Barrie.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ynysddurfc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 October 2018 at 8:42pm
Leinster game was days after the school year began. There was no half time tag and probably no school/junior club promotions, all resulting in significantly less in the west stand. Ospreys attendance was poor by comparison, and no doubt kick off time contributed to this. However, east stand which traditionally was for away support was empty, indicating a fall in visiting support
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Winston Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 October 2018 at 9:34pm
I’m all for the promotion of selling seats cheap and kids free. Atmosphere as you say. Gloucester always did something similar. I know that some ST holders didn’t like it but I love the idea. Just want the stadium full of crazy Scarlets supporters.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote joni_bach Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 October 2018 at 10:09pm
Originally posted by Wasp Wasp wrote:

Originally posted by joni_bach joni_bach wrote:

Well my model shows that being the current champions increases attendance by 1122, so that explains about 64% of the 1750 per game drop in attendance. 

The prediction that not being on free-to-air tv won't have any effect on attendance seems to be holding up so far. 

Using the model, the predicted attendance on Saturday will be about 9580, which is made up of:

5126 regular fans
1151 extra fans because it's a European game
1470 extra fans if we have all possible Wales internationals playing
1833 extra fans because of our 5/6 win ratio

Really interesting stuff, thanks. Is there a simplistic answer to where the 5126 comes from?

9580 is looking ambitious to me, I'd be delighted to see that. The weather forecast can't be helping though I'm sure

Yeah, basically when you run this type of model it produces one constant term and the rest are variables. So if we just use that constant and 3 variables above you get the equation:

Attendance = 5126 + (add 1151 if it's a European game) + (add 147 for every Wales player) + (add 22 fans for every point win percentage (currently 83.33%)) + error term.

The error basically means I probably haven't thought of every factor. You could add weather, other sporting events which take fans away, even average wages in the local area etc. 

The 10 Wales players may be a bit hopeful LOL so take 147 off the attendance for every one I'm out by.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 October 2018 at 10:13pm
Originally posted by joni_bach joni_bach wrote:

Well my model shows that being the current champions increases attendance by 1122, so that explains about 64% of the 1750 per game drop in attendance. 


Good spot.

Originally posted by joni_bach joni_bach wrote:


Using the model, the predicted attendance on Saturday will be about 9580, which is made up of:

5126 regular fans
1151 extra fans because it's a European game
1470 extra fans if we have all possible Wales internationals playing
1833 extra fans because of our 5/6 win ratio


I'll buy you 9580 pints of Brains if you get that spot on Clap
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Micro Duck Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 October 2018 at 9:33am
I'm not sure why we keep on expecting the club to pay to generate an atmosphere.

Why can't the fans bring flags to the game?


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Winston Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 October 2018 at 1:28pm
It’s abouf economics isn’t it. You have a half empty stadium or you sell seats cheaply. The club wouldn’t lose
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote aber-fan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 October 2018 at 2:02pm
Originally posted by Micro Duck Micro Duck wrote:

I'm not sure why we keep on expecting the club to pay to generate an atmosphere.

Why can't the fans bring flags to the game?



We got given free flags at a game last year... I still have mine, though at my age waving a flag looks a bit pathetic, TBH... I prefer to lose my voice, shouting!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote supertaf Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 October 2018 at 2:46pm
Originally posted by Matthew Cardey Matthew Cardey wrote:

Think, with all the success Leinster had last year and the rivalry we are starting to create with them, we should be very disappointed with that crowd. Saturday is a massive game for us, biggest of the season so far, against world class players, and we are hoping to get 9k? We need to sell tickets in the east or west stand for a fiver, kids go for free? just get people through the gates. It creates a better atmosphere and makes people want to come back. Are we handing out flags for the game saturday? We need to run more promotions, maybe get an european season ticket for people wanting to come to the home champions cup games. Could there be a choir singing half time? could there be a band pitch side?
 
Totally agree about us being happy with 9k. We were euro semi finalists last year and they were finalists, why on each would people not be crawling over each other for a ticket to such a massive game? I really don't understand why we would not get at least 11k.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Fscarlet Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 October 2018 at 2:54pm
Originally posted by supertaf supertaf wrote:

Originally posted by Matthew Cardey Matthew Cardey wrote:

Think, with all the success Leinster had last year and the rivalry we are starting to create with them, we should be very disappointed with that crowd. Saturday is a massive game for us, biggest of the season so far, against world class players, and we are hoping to get 9k? We need to sell tickets in the east or west stand for a fiver, kids go for free? just get people through the gates. It creates a better atmosphere and makes people want to come back. Are we handing out flags for the game saturday? We need to run more promotions, maybe get an european season ticket for people wanting to come to the home champions cup games. Could there be a choir singing half time? could there be a band pitch side?
 
Totally agree about us being happy with 9k. We were euro semi finalists last year and they were finalists, why on each would people not be crawling over each other for a ticket to such a massive game? I really don't understand why we would not get at least 11k.


Local rugby leagues kick off at 14:30 so allowing for no delays I usually finish (as in showered & changed) at 16:30 which gives me an hour to get from whatever club I am playing at, usually in Pembrokeshire (though this week Tre-bloody-garon of all places), to get to PYS which isn't do able. I know for a fact that this applies for another 3 players on my team so there is 7/8 from my club alone that would love to attend but can't. Apply a similar logic around the area & that's a good number.

Secondly we had our biggest league home fixture last week. I always strive to attend this but again timings didn't allow due to playing commitments. A lot of families would have been there last week & would have spent circa £100 all in when you include tickets, food/drink/parking etc...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote aber-fan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 October 2018 at 3:41pm
The weather forecast is pretty awful for Friday and Saturday, which could reduce attendance - of course, they got that wrong last week, so who knows?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote supertaf Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 October 2018 at 3:45pm
Originally posted by Fscarlet Fscarlet wrote:

Originally posted by supertaf supertaf wrote:

Originally posted by Matthew Cardey Matthew Cardey wrote:

Think, with all the success Leinster had last year and the rivalry we are starting to create with them, we should be very disappointed with that crowd. Saturday is a massive game for us, biggest of the season so far, against world class players, and we are hoping to get 9k? We need to sell tickets in the east or west stand for a fiver, kids go for free? just get people through the gates. It creates a better atmosphere and makes people want to come back. Are we handing out flags for the game saturday? We need to run more promotions, maybe get an european season ticket for people wanting to come to the home champions cup games. Could there be a choir singing half time? could there be a band pitch side?
 
Totally agree about us being happy with 9k. We were euro semi finalists last year and they were finalists, why on each would people not be crawling over each other for a ticket to such a massive game? I really don't understand why we would not get at least 11k.


Local rugby leagues kick off at 14:30 so allowing for no delays I usually finish (as in showered & changed) at 16:30 which gives me an hour to get from whatever club I am playing at, usually in Pembrokeshire (though this week Tre-bloody-garon of all places), to get to PYS which isn't do able. I know for a fact that this applies for another 3 players on my team so there is 7/8 from my club alone that would love to attend but can't. Apply a similar logic around the area & that's a good number.

Secondly we had our biggest league home fixture last week. I always strive to attend this but again timings didn't allow due to playing commitments. A lot of families would have been there last week & would have spent circa £100 all in when you include tickets, food/drink/parking etc...
Not sure why people take my comments as personal attack but I'm sure we are not unique in having players as supporters. That would account for a few hundred maybe? A thousand? My point is, where are the non-playing fans? If you think we are only worthy of a 9k crowd for this game then fair enough, personally, my view, I'm not. I should mention that we have the exact same issue in the family as our lad plays in 1 west and he's gutted he cant be there as they are miles away on Saturday.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Fscarlet Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 October 2018 at 3:51pm
Originally posted by supertaf supertaf wrote:

Not sure why people take my comments as personal attack but I'm sure we are not unique in having players as supporters. That would account for a few hundred maybe? A thousand? My point is, where are the non-playing fans? If you think we are only worthy of a 9k crowd for this game then fair enough, personally, my view, I'm not. I should mention that we have the exact same issue in the family as our lad plays in 1 west and he's gutted he cant be there as they are miles away on Saturday.


I didn't take it that way & I apologise if I have given the impression that that was the case. I was merely trying to show possible reasons as to why we may not have a great level of attendance. I don't know where the non-playing fans are.

Personally I think that this is a game which is worthy of at least 11k as they are one of the biggest sides in France but then again I guess you could ask the question how much French rugby does the average 'walk up' supporter see?

I'm gutted not to be coming up, though I have balanced that with going to Leicester next week!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Wasp Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 October 2018 at 6:43pm
I think we might just crack 10k, just from a quick look at the online seating plan
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 October 2018 at 2:17am
Originally posted by joni_bach joni_bach wrote:

  • 5363 fans attend each game regardless of other variables
  • Being champions last season has no significant affect on attendance
  • Kick off on a Friday night has no significant difference to attendance
  • Kick off on a Saturday night has no significant difference (compared to Saturday night kick off)
  • Kick off on a Sunday decreases attendance by 1290 (compared to Saturday night kick off)
  • 1191 extra fans attend a game if it is a European game
  • 5555 extra fans attend a game if it is against the Ospreys
  • 3905 extra fans attend a game if it is a play-off
  • 195 extra fans attend a game for every Welsh international playing
  • For every 1% increase in home wins in the current season, 12 extra fans attend

Looking back at these:
Is there a difference between Saturday Lunchtimes, 3pm or 5:30pm or 7:30pm?
Did you say somewhere else that Friday decreases by about 500? Or was I dreaming?
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