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Some Statistical Analysis on Attendance

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roy munster View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roy munster Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 October 2018 at 5:43am
Wonder if the lack of bbc promotion coverage is affecting us? ironic as iIalways thought making it harder to access on freeview would force the fans down the parc 
ROYMOND MUNTER MBE (FOR SERVICES TO THE COMBOVER)
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aber-fan View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote aber-fan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 October 2018 at 6:27am
Originally posted by roy munster roy munster wrote:

Wonder if the lack of bbc promotion coverage is affecting us? ironic as iIalways thought making it harder to access on freeview would force the fans down the parc 

I'm not sure, but was always of the opinion that Sky's OTT promotion of any sport it showed - including rugby - had a positive effect on crowds. Don't forget that Murdoch owns the Sun and Times titles as well, so those papers would always be bigging up Sky TV, no matter how good, bad or indifferent the product was. (Pretty distasteful and dishonest, but as far as crowds were concerned, I think it helped to build attendances in England at least.)

I can also say that I have far less interest in sports which aren't shown free to air than I used to - such as cricket and golf. I'm not so interested in those that I'd be willing to pay. Others, no doubt, feel like that about rugby.
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dyniol53 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 October 2018 at 12:11pm
Im pretty sure the removal from free-to-air TV has no effect on stadium attendances in the short term - but does seem have an impact on the sport in the Long term in terms of general public interest. (cricket and golf are prime examples above).

The point about Murdoch’s empire is a good one - I used to work on Sky Sports’ advertising and our whole media plan always included cross overs with the press, talk sport and Sky’s free-to-air channels which help with awareness.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 October 2018 at 1:15pm
Updating to include the Racing game - which was played during the storm so we might be able to understand the appx 1.5k drop below expected. (Attendance from EPC website)

ECC - Opposition - Attendance - Last Year - Difference
13th Oct 2018 - Racing 92 - 8,064 - 11,479 (Bath) - -3,415
7th Dec 2018 - Ulster - -
12th Jan 2019 - Leicester -

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote saundersfootscarlets Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 October 2018 at 10:39pm
Crowds have been a little disappointing this year , I wonder if , as previously commented in this topic that the lack of coverage on the BBC has resulted in less awareness from the public generally and any resultant floating supporters who may have come along having watched games , but still disappointing after our performances over the last few years.
The Bath attendance was possibly surprisingly high last year which may have provided an artificially high figure to compare the Racing attendance to , plus there were probably many more visiting fans from Bath than from Racing and as mentioned above the storm's probably prevented many from attending.
Hopefully attendances will pick up again as the season progresses.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote scarletsrules Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 October 2018 at 1:09pm
Originally posted by saundersfootscarlets saundersfootscarlets wrote:

Crowds have been a little disappointing this year , I wonder if , as previously commented in this topic that the lack of coverage on the BBC has resulted in less awareness from the public generally and any resultant floating supporters who may have come along having watched games , but still disappointing after our performances over the last few years.
The Bath attendance was possibly surprisingly high last year which may have provided an artificially high figure to compare the Racing attendance to , plus there were probably many more visiting fans from Bath than from Racing and as mentioned above the storm's probably prevented many from attending.
Hopefully attendances will pick up again as the season progresses.


There wont be many there for the Ulster league game on 23rd nov as that's the same day as the llanelli xmas carnival, last time we played a game the same day as the xmas carnival I think we were lucky to get 3k there although actual figure was announced as 6k I think that day, cant see why one or the other cant be changed , cant scarlets ask to play on the Sunday instead as the Sat wales play SA, or cant the carnival be the week before or week after
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 March 2019 at 5:45pm
52,000 sold for the QF at the Aviva in the ECC, out of curiosity I thought I'd look at how our attendances fared on last years campaign, thinking about what revenue we might miss out on if we don't manage qualification!

ECC
- Opposition - Attendance - Prev Year - Difference
13th Oct 2018 - Racing 92 - 8,064 - 11,479 (Bath) -3,415
7th Dec 2018 - Ulster - 7,421 - 6,856 (BEN) - +565
12th Jan 2019 - Leicester - 8,087 - 14,476 (TLN) - -6,389

QF
30th Mar 2019  - N/A - 0 - 15,373 (La R) - -15,373


Edited by dyniol53 - 30 March 2019 at 5:45pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 March 2019 at 6:10pm
Pro14 - Opposition - Attendance - Last Year - Difference
8th Sept 2018  - Leinster   - 7,258 - 9,108 -1,850
15th Sept 2018 - Benneton - 7,180 - 8,007 -827
29th Sept 2018 - Southern K. - 7,529 - 9,108 -1,849
6th Oct 2018  - Ospreys - 12,012 - 14,509 -2,497
23rd Nov 2018 - Ulster - 7,788 - 6,941 - +847
29th Dec 2018 - Cardiff Blues - 10,622 - 9,003 - +1,619
5th Jan 2019 - Dragons - 8,167 - 9,347 - -1,180
24th Feb 2019 - Cheetahs - 7,200 - 7,105 (QF) - +95 
2nd Mar 2019 - Munster - 8,032 - 7,693 (Con) - +339
5th Apr 2019 - Edinburgh - - 8,088 -
12th Apr 2019 - Zebre - - -
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roy munster Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 March 2019 at 6:22pm
down approx 5k
ROYMOND MUNTER MBE (FOR SERVICES TO THE COMBOVER)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 March 2019 at 6:33pm
Not as bad as you might have thought, only a decline of 590 per game & considering we were champions the year previous.

If we can better last year's Edinburgh attendance that'd be good, such a crucial game.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote M.M. Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 March 2019 at 7:15pm
We sold over 5,000 season tickets last season. We need to retain as much of those as is possible.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roy munster Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 March 2019 at 7:50pm
8500 average is it?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 March 2019 at 7:56pm
Yes, 8,420

Last year P14 was was 8,890
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roy munster Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 March 2019 at 6:38am
Not too bad considering results

IF we go for a judgement day 2 this would be probably over 10,000 and an extra £150,000 thats the annual salary for a tidy player made in one afternoon
ROYMOND MUNTER MBE (FOR SERVICES TO THE COMBOVER)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote supertaf Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 March 2019 at 4:03pm
Hang on though, this is where stats tell the tale that the writer wants. The reason why the Ospreys game was less was the KO day/time. It's not comparable and that may also apply to other games. Cant argue crowds are down but sometimes its for a good reason sadly.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote joni_bach Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 March 2019 at 6:30pm
Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

Not as bad as you might have thought, only a decline of 590 per game & considering we were champions the year previous.

If we can better last year's Edinburgh attendance that'd be good, such a crucial game.

The model at the start of the thread equates roughly a 25% decrease in win percentage with a loss of 550 fans per game so that seems to make sense.
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