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The Brexit bonus...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote aber-fan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 January 2019 at 1:39pm
Originally posted by GPR - Rochester GPR - Rochester wrote:

Originally posted by dr_martinov dr_martinov wrote:

Undoubtedly. A referendum shouldn't be offered when there is not enough political strength to execute either outcome. And I'm not speaking as a "loser" - the evidence of the last two years bares me out as to what a mess it can make if this is not done. My view is "it's happened, let's make the best of it" - which I believe many more Remain MPs should have also taken BTW - but we have seen our House is not functional for these situations and the perception is too many people have been playing politics from weak positions rather than trying to actually get stuff done. In saying that, it's a phenomenally complex situation and I suspect people didn't appreciate the intricacies of how Parliament functions or even how challenging it is to legally separate ourselves from the EU (me included) and balancing all those factions is neigh on impossible. It's a massive power struggle behind the scenes right now for who can implement "their" Brexit. From an abstract point of view it'll be interesting to see who wins but this is all quite damaging short-term for the country and public moral and trust in politicians are worryingly low.

Can't disagree with any of the Dr M. Remainers & Leavers can all agree on one thing - the whole negotiation process performed by this Government has been flawed since day 1. Public School educated, career politicians are not negotiators. Barrow boy entrepreneurs like Lord Sugar & self made entrepreneurs like Dyson & the Wetherspoons founder Tim Martin made their money by being excellent negotiators. 

One of the arts of good negotiating is to always have confidence that you have prepared a fall back position to walk away if you believe the other side are not negotiating in good faith. This Government have clearly failed in this regard and now are faced with a take it or leave scenario. I remain to be convinced that Theresa May has any plan prepared if she loses the vote next week. It could be a very interesting week in politics. 

Leaving aside arguments about Brexit for the moment, I'd dispute this - unless you actually think that Trump's presidency is a resounding success!

(BTW - Dyson is a total hypocrite, who has transferred pretty much all his production to Asia, if I remember right...)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ap sior Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 January 2019 at 1:42pm
Originally posted by aber-fan aber-fan wrote:

Originally posted by GPR - Rochester GPR - Rochester wrote:

Originally posted by dr_martinov dr_martinov wrote:

Undoubtedly. A referendum shouldn't be offered when there is not enough political strength to execute either outcome. And I'm not speaking as a "loser" - the evidence of the last two years bares me out as to what a mess it can make if this is not done. My view is "it's happened, let's make the best of it" - which I believe many more Remain MPs should have also taken BTW - but we have seen our House is not functional for these situations and the perception is too many people have been playing politics from weak positions rather than trying to actually get stuff done. In saying that, it's a phenomenally complex situation and I suspect people didn't appreciate the intricacies of how Parliament functions or even how challenging it is to legally separate ourselves from the EU (me included) and balancing all those factions is neigh on impossible. It's a massive power struggle behind the scenes right now for who can implement "their" Brexit. From an abstract point of view it'll be interesting to see who wins but this is all quite damaging short-term for the country and public moral and trust in politicians are worryingly low.

Can't disagree with any of the Dr M. Remainers & Leavers can all agree on one thing - the whole negotiation process performed by this Government has been flawed since day 1. Public School educated, career politicians are not negotiators. Barrow boy entrepreneurs like Lord Sugar & self made entrepreneurs like Dyson & the Wetherspoons founder Tim Martin made their money by being excellent negotiators. 

One of the arts of good negotiating is to always have confidence that you have prepared a fall back position to walk away if you believe the other side are not negotiating in good faith. This Government have clearly failed in this regard and now are faced with a take it or leave scenario. I remain to be convinced that Theresa May has any plan prepared if she loses the vote next week. It could be a very interesting week in politics. 

Leaving aside arguments about Brexit for the moment, I'd dispute this - unless you actually think that Trump's presidency is a resounding success!

(BTW - Dyson is a total hypocrite, who has transferred pretty much all his production to Asia, if I remember right...)

As is Rees-Mogg, who has opened an office in Dublin for his asset management company!!!!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote GPR - Rochester Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 January 2019 at 9:16am
Originally posted by aber-fan aber-fan wrote:

Originally posted by GPR - Rochester GPR - Rochester wrote:

Originally posted by dr_martinov dr_martinov wrote:

Undoubtedly. A referendum shouldn't be offered when there is not enough political strength to execute either outcome. And I'm not speaking as a "loser" - the evidence of the last two years bares me out as to what a mess it can make if this is not done. My view is "it's happened, let's make the best of it" - which I believe many more Remain MPs should have also taken BTW - but we have seen our House is not functional for these situations and the perception is too many people have been playing politics from weak positions rather than trying to actually get stuff done. In saying that, it's a phenomenally complex situation and I suspect people didn't appreciate the intricacies of how Parliament functions or even how challenging it is to legally separate ourselves from the EU (me included) and balancing all those factions is neigh on impossible. It's a massive power struggle behind the scenes right now for who can implement "their" Brexit. From an abstract point of view it'll be interesting to see who wins but this is all quite damaging short-term for the country and public moral and trust in politicians are worryingly low.

Can't disagree with any of the Dr M. Remainers & Leavers can all agree on one thing - the whole negotiation process performed by this Government has been flawed since day 1. Public School educated, career politicians are not negotiators. Barrow boy entrepreneurs like Lord Sugar & self made entrepreneurs like Dyson & the Wetherspoons founder Tim Martin made their money by being excellent negotiators. 

One of the arts of good negotiating is to always have confidence that you have prepared a fall back position to walk away if you believe the other side are not negotiating in good faith. This Government have clearly failed in this regard and now are faced with a take it or leave scenario. I remain to be convinced that Theresa May has any plan prepared if she loses the vote next week. It could be a very interesting week in politics. 

Leaving aside arguments about Brexit for the moment, I'd dispute this - unless you actually think that Trump's presidency is a resounding success!

(BTW - Dyson is a total hypocrite, who has transferred pretty much all his production to Asia, if I remember right...)

The arguments you put forward Aber are not relevant. Did I say that all self made entrepreneurs were excellent negotiators? I don't think so - so why throw in that old cherry of Trump? Whether Dyson is a nice human being again is totally irrelevant. My point, which I thought was simply made, is that the negotiating team appointed by May lacked real World negotiating skills. I am not for one second suggesting that Lord Sugar would make a good PM but the PM's job is to pick horses for courses which she, in my opinion, hasn't done. 

With regard to your pretty obvious introduction of Donald Trump into the discussion my view on his presidency doesn't really count. Perhaps you may get an informed view from any of the 2 million people he has created jobs for since he took office.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Eastern outpost Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 January 2019 at 11:10am
I’m not so sure on the 50:50 point above.

There appear to be plenty of surveys with a majority in favour of remaining.

Also, I’ve heard many examples of people who say they wished they’d voted to remain but had voted to leave just as a form of mini protest, never thinking there was any chance of it happening.

I’ve NEVER heard à remain voter say they wished they’d voted to leave.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote reesytheexile Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 January 2019 at 12:36pm
Originally posted by Eastern outpost Eastern outpost wrote:

I’m not so sure on the 50:50 point above.

There appear to be plenty of surveys with a majority in favour of remaining.

Also, I’ve heard many examples of people who say they wished they’d voted to remain but had voted to leave just as a form of mini protest, never thinking there was any chance of it happening.

I’ve NEVER heard à remain voter say they wished they’d voted to leave.
I think that’s spot on Steve. Those who chose to remain are unchanged amongst everyone I know and to be honest the vast majority of leavers are still leavers BUT a small percentage have changed their minds. I reckon it’s still close but has swung in favour of remain amongst the public . Will we ever find out I wonder ?🤔

Edited by reesytheexile - 12 January 2019 at 12:39pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roy munster Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 January 2019 at 3:30pm
maybe a second  referendum on the final deal in parliament is a possibility but a new tory leader and a general election in the next year is more likely imho if the mps cant agree a deal by the deadline then what? extend the deadline new tory leader to try and negotiate a better deal? general election  follow?  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote GPR - Rochester Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 January 2019 at 9:28am
At this point in time if May's deal is voted down on Tuesday then we leave on WTO terms on 29th March. Again so much negative information being thrown out by people who should know better - is it any wonder that politicians stock has fallen to an all time low. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rob o'r Bont Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 January 2019 at 10:57am
Not strictly true GPR - if the deal isn't passed on Tuesday then the Government has 21 days to make a statement to Parliament on how it plans to proceed.  Leaving on WTO terms is one option but there are others. For instance, the EU has opened the door for the UK to remain with no further questions asked.  Would be difficult to get this passed the people mind.

Edited by Rob o'r Bont - 13 January 2019 at 10:58am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Ffidel Bennett Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 January 2019 at 12:02pm
The overwhelming anti-Brexit propaganda on the media, particularly the BBC, is becoming ridiculous. Now they are including "Brexit uncertainty" with every factory closure or loss of jobs they report. The car-factory job losses being the latest. Land Rover admit that loss of sales in China (due to Trump's trade war) and Ford are adamant that the trend toward electric (away from diesel) is the reason for their cuts, which are even heavier in Europe!! Unless, that is Ford are aware of more potential EU exits - Greece, Italy France all struggling!!  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Winston Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 January 2019 at 12:07pm
Originally posted by Ffidel Bennett Ffidel Bennett wrote:

The overwhelming anti-Brexit propaganda on the media, particularly the BBC, is becoming ridiculous. Now they are including "Brexit uncertainty" with every factory closure or loss of jobs they report. The car-factory job losses being the latest. Land Rover admit that loss of sales in China (due to Trump's trade war) and Ford are adamant that the trend toward electric (away from diesel) is the reason for their cuts, which are even heavier in Europe!! Unless, that is Ford are aware of more potential EU exits - Greece, Italy France all struggling!!  


Spot on. As I said in another threat let’s not let the truth get in the way of a good story
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rob o'r Bont Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 January 2019 at 12:40pm
Originally posted by Winston Winston wrote:

Originally posted by Ffidel Bennett Ffidel Bennett wrote:

The overwhelming anti-Brexit propaganda on the media, particularly the BBC, is becoming ridiculous. Now they are including "Brexit uncertainty" with every factory closure or loss of jobs they report. The car-factory job losses being the latest. Land Rover admit that loss of sales in China (due to Trump's trade war) and Ford are adamant that the trend toward electric (away from diesel) is the reason for their cuts, which are even heavier in Europe!! Unless, that is Ford are aware of more potential EU exits - Greece, Italy France all struggling!!  


Spot on. As I said in another threat let’s not let the truth get in the way of a good story
In fairness, every report that I have seen in the media states that Brexit isn't the primary reason, but will be a factor - come on folks it's bound to be a factor.  Car companies are restructuring their European operations and the UK will not be in Europe.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Winston Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 January 2019 at 12:43pm
I am old enough to recall that the common market was formed to support the failing german car market and the poor French agricultural industry.   Happy days eh
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote greypower1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 January 2019 at 12:55pm
Originally posted by Rob o'r Bont Rob o'r Bont wrote:

Not strictly true GPR - if the deal isn't passed on Tuesday then the Government has 21 days to make a statement to Parliament on how it plans to proceed.  Leaving on WTO terms is one option but there are others. For instance, the EU has opened the door for the UK to remain with no further questions asked.  Would be difficult to get this passed the people mind.


The government only have 3 days to propose a way forward thanks to the Speaker allowing a vote on an amendment last week which the government lost.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ladram Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 January 2019 at 6:21pm
Originally posted by greypower1 greypower1 wrote:

Originally posted by Rob o'r Bont Rob o'r Bont wrote:

Not strictly true GPR - if the deal isn't passed on Tuesday then the Government has 21 days to make a statement to Parliament on how it plans to proceed.  Leaving on WTO terms is one option but there are others. For instance, the EU has opened the door for the UK to remain with no further questions asked.  Would be difficult to get this passed the people mind.


The government only have 3 days to propose a way forward thanks to the Speaker allowing a vote on an amendment last week which the government lost.
the speaker is as impartial as ian McHugh was at the forest ground against Leicester.
30th june 1986- 30th june 2011.25 years roofing,i wouldn't call that dodgy.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roy munster Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 January 2019 at 11:46pm
Originally posted by Winston Winston wrote:

Originally posted by Ffidel Bennett Ffidel Bennett wrote:

The overwhelming anti-Brexit propaganda on the media, particularly the BBC, is becoming ridiculous. Now they are including "Brexit uncertainty" with every factory closure or loss of jobs they report. The car-factory job losses being the latest. Land Rover admit that loss of sales in China (due to Trump's trade war) and Ford are adamant that the trend toward electric (away from diesel) is the reason for their cuts, which are even heavier in Europe!! Unless, that is Ford are aware of more potential EU exits - Greece, Italy France all struggling!!  


Spot on. As I said in another threat let’s not let the truth get in the way of a good story
They barely ever mentioned the remarkable revival of  british steel which was dead int he water pre brexit.  Stock markets are still up 15% since june 2016 and unemployment is lowest in 50 years. The pound is weaker but it was way too high anyway. however thats not to ignore the mind bogglingly massive situation we are dealing with on march 29th. If there is no deal, then I think the deadline will be extended. |A new leader will be found and we will see a general election and a second referendum, before brexit takes place. Either way I dont actually think you can unscramble these eggs and i dont think brexit will in the end happen. The endless agreements worldwide, the food standards, the environmental standards, etc  By the time a second referendum happens merkel and may and maybejunker too will be long gone. Hopefully we will see the EU transform into a more democratic less draconian wasteful corrupt superstate. 

European Union[edit]

In the 1975 European Communities referendum put forward by the Labour Party in the United Kingdom, Corbyn opposed Britain's membership of the EEC.[205] Corbyn also opposed the ratification of the Maastricht Treaty in 1993, saying: "... the whole basis of the Maastricht treaty is the establishment of a European central bank which is staffed by bankers, independent of national Governments and national economic policies, and whose sole policy is the maintenance of price stability[.] That will undermine any social objective that any Labour Government in the United Kingdom—or any other Government—would wish to carry out. ... The Maastricht treaty does not take us in the direction of the checks and balances contained in the American federal constitution[.] It takes us in the opposite direction of an unelected legislative body—the [European] Commission—and, in the case of foreign policy, a policy Commission that will be, in effect, imposing foreign policy on nation states that have fought for their own democratic accountability".[206][207][208]

"We have a European bureaucracy totally unaccountable to anybody, powers have gone from national parliaments - they haven't gone to the European Parliament, they've gone to the Commission and to some extent the Council of Ministers. These are quite serious matters."

— Jeremy Corbyn views on the European Union in 1996, Labour Party conference, 1996

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote GPR - Rochester Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 January 2019 at 11:15am
Originally posted by roy munster roy munster wrote:

Originally posted by Winston Winston wrote:

Originally posted by Ffidel Bennett Ffidel Bennett wrote:

The overwhelming anti-Brexit propaganda on the media, particularly the BBC, is becoming ridiculous. Now they are including "Brexit uncertainty" with every factory closure or loss of jobs they report. The car-factory job losses being the latest. Land Rover admit that loss of sales in China (due to Trump's trade war) and Ford are adamant that the trend toward electric (away from diesel) is the reason for their cuts, which are even heavier in Europe!! Unless, that is Ford are aware of more potential EU exits - Greece, Italy France all struggling!!  


Spot on. As I said in another threat let’s not let the truth get in the way of a good story
They barely ever mentioned the remarkable revival of  british steel which was dead int he water pre brexit.  Stock markets are still up 15% since june 2016 and unemployment is lowest in 50 years. The pound is weaker but it was way too high anyway. however thats not to ignore the mind bogglingly massive situation we are dealing with on march 29th. If there is no deal, then I think the deadline will be extended. |A new leader will be found and we will see a general election and a second referendum, before brexit takes place. Either way I dont actually think you can unscramble these eggs and i dont think brexit will in the end happen. The endless agreements worldwide, the food standards, the environmental standards, etc  By the time a second referendum happens merkel and may and maybejunker too will be long gone. Hopefully we will see the EU transform into a more democratic less draconian wasteful corrupt superstate. 

European Union[edit]

In the 1975 European Communities referendum put forward by the Labour Party in the United Kingdom, Corbyn opposed Britain's membership of the EEC.[205] Corbyn also opposed the ratification of the Maastricht Treaty in 1993, saying: "... the whole basis of the Maastricht treaty is the establishment of a European central bank which is staffed by bankers, independent of national Governments and national economic policies, and whose sole policy is the maintenance of price stability[.] That will undermine any social objective that any Labour Government in the United Kingdom—or any other Government—would wish to carry out. ... The Maastricht treaty does not take us in the direction of the checks and balances contained in the American federal constitution[.] It takes us in the opposite direction of an unelected legislative body—the [European] Commission—and, in the case of foreign policy, a policy Commission that will be, in effect, imposing foreign policy on nation states that have fought for their own democratic accountability".[206][207][208]

"We have a European bureaucracy totally unaccountable to anybody, powers have gone from national parliaments - they haven't gone to the European Parliament, they've gone to the Commission and to some extent the Council of Ministers. These are quite serious matters."

— Jeremy Corbyn views on the European Union in 1996, Labour Party conference, 1996


Very interesting Roy. There are clearly many aspects of the EU which Jeremy is fundamentally opposed to - which I tend to agree with. Just as May is walking a tightrope within her own party, exacerbated of course by her total reliance on the DUP, so does Jeremy within his own party. 

The only thing any of us could say at the moment with any degree of certainty is that the vote tomorrow will go against the government. Where that leaves us with regard to Brexit who knows. Unchartered waters indeed. Corbyn seems to think that he will win a vote of no confidence in the Government once May's deal is voted down. I am not so sure. Its one thing voting against the Brexit deal but quite another to vote against your party in a confidence motion which would open the door for a possible election. Politicians are many things but they understand what a cushy number they are on compared to the rest of the population with their excellent salaries, cast iron clad pensions & very generous expense accounts. 

A failed vote of no confidence removes the election threat so only leaves open the following options as I see it :-

1. Revoke Article 50 & remain in the EU;
2. Leave on the 29th March under WTO rules;
3. Re-negotiate the deal which apparently is not up for renegotiation;
4. Extend article 50 by some months to allow either a renegotiation or another referendum.

Only options 2 or 3 actually allow May to deliver on her promise made when elected to PM.
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