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Pro14 Run-in 2019/20

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minded View Drop Down
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    Posted: 24 February 2020 at 8:41am
Think we're destined for a battle with Munster for 2nd and 3rd.
Edinburgh won't be caught without a couple of slip ups on their part. 
I can see Connacht and Cardiff falling away after Round 16.


CONFERENCE B   R14 R15 R16 R17 R18 R19 R20 R21
1st Pld Pts Kings (a) Cheetahs (a) Benetton (h) Ulster (a) Ospreys (h) Munster (h) Connacht (a) Glasgow (h) Total
Edinburgh 13 47 4 1 4 1 5 4 4 4 74
                       
      R14 R15 R16 R17 R18 R19 R20 R21
2nd Pld Pts Benetton (a) Benetton (h) Blues (h) Leinster (a) Glasgow (h) Edinburgh (a) Scarlets (a) Connacht (h) Total
Munster 13 45 4 4 4 1 4 1 1 4 68
                       
      R14 R15 R16 R17 R18 R19 R20 R21
3rd Pld Pts Connacht (a) Dragons (h) Kings (a) Blues (h) Benetton (a) Leinster (h) Munster (h) Ospreys (a) Total
Scarlets 13 37 1 5 5 4 4 1 4 5 66
                       
      R14 R15 R16 R17 R18 R19 R20 R21
4th Pld Pts Scarlets (h) Zebre (a) Glasgow (h) Benetton (a) Ulster (h) Blues (a) Edinburgh (h) Munster (a) Total
Connacht 13 35 4 5 4 1 1 1 1 1 53
                       
      R14 R15 R16 R17 R18 R19 R20 R21
5th Pld Pts Zebre (h) Ospreys (h) Munster (a) Scarlets (a) Kings (h) Connacht (h) Leinster (a) Dragons (a) Total
Blues 13 29 5 5 1 1 5 4 0 4 54


Edited by minded - 02 March 2020 at 11:58am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote N14 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 February 2020 at 10:33am
A win against Munster would be superb and just what we need. Can't see it though unfortunately.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote crj89 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 February 2020 at 10:47am
With a bit of luck the Blues and ourselves can get wins on the weekend, set the season up nicely then.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Wil Chips Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 February 2020 at 11:10am
I feel you've been a little optimistic in our numbers against other Welsh teams there, anyway I think it will swing on an unexpected win ( like us beating Munster!).
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote haydn_davies Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 February 2020 at 11:31am
Last 3 games are absolutely massive for all the sides in contention.
Think, think, think - it's a thinking man's game!! - The Great Carwyn James.
Just for our SA friends - Weste is die beste!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote minded Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 February 2020 at 12:14pm
Originally posted by Wil Chips Wil Chips wrote:

I feel you've been a little optimistic in our numbers against other Welsh teams there, anyway I think it will swing on an unexpected win ( like us beating Munster!).
I'd expect 3 wins, maybe 2 of those with BP's is pushing it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Legendinmybathroom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 February 2020 at 12:31pm
Providing that we can reintroduce the international players into the match day squad without causing too much disruption (something we struggle with usually) then we’ll be fine.  Third place would do me although I’d be happier with second (and a home 1/4 final playoff spot).
My concern would be the usual reluctance of the Welsh regions to reintroduce the players as quickly as the Irish and Scottish teams (whether that is the region’s decisions or the agreement with the WRU, I don’t know), meaning that we are usually playing catch-up.
We have a tough run in, but so do Munster and Edinburgh (the last 3 rounds are massive for all the top 3.
Remember, we have a new coaching setup (who need time to settle and change things) and we have had to introduce a load of new players to the squad (both overseas players and players from our excellent academy).
Also, it’s often the team that leaves it late to put a run of wins together that does well (whether it’s winning promotion via the playoffs or sneaking into the european slots in the final round of games).  Think back to the season that we won the pro12, we were seen as being completely out of contention during the 6 nation but put a run of superb wins together to just sneak into the playoffs and then just continued with that momentum through to the final.
I have faith that we will make the playoffs and possibly the semifinals, but then having to go to Leinster in the semifinals and win would probably be a step too far for our current squad.
We also have a challenge cup 1/4 final to look forward to, yes Toulon will be firm favourites, but that puts less pressure on us.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote GPR - Rochester Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 February 2020 at 12:44pm
Originally posted by Wil Chips Wil Chips wrote:

I feel you've been a little optimistic in our numbers against other Welsh teams there, anyway I think it will swing on an unexpected win ( like us beating Munster!).

Yes 14 points from 3 derbies is very optimistic. 9 is nearer the mark. If I could pick one unexpected win it would be Connacht away. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Why Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 February 2020 at 12:49pm
Last game of season against the Ospreys with them having a chance of stopping us qualifying for play offs would be massive squeaky bum time. Let’s hopes we have wrapped it up by then. Got horrible feeling Edinburgh home game going to haunt us. 
She asks why i still can't answer. I guess its in the blood.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Formerly Pemberton Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 February 2020 at 2:15pm
It's highly likely that at least one of our Welsh derbies willed be reffed by Ben Whitehouse so I think 14 points in those games is very unlikely. I agree that Connacht away is a reasonable chance of picking up a vital away win. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Jones2004 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 February 2020 at 3:27pm
Originally posted by Legendinmybathroom Legendinmybathroom wrote:

Providing that we can reintroduce the international players into the match day squad without causing too much disruption (something we struggle with usually) then we’ll be fine.  Third place would do me although I’d be happier with second (and a home 1/4 final playoff spot).
My concern would be the usual reluctance of the Welsh regions to reintroduce the players as quickly as the Irish and Scottish teams (whether that is the region’s decisions or the agreement with the WRU, I don’t know), meaning that we are usually playing catch-up.
We have a tough run in, but so do Munster and Edinburgh (the last 3 rounds are massive for all the top 3.
Remember, we have a new coaching setup (who need time to settle and change things) and we have had to introduce a load of new players to the squad (both overseas players and players from our excellent academy).
Also, it’s often the team that leaves it late to put a run of wins together that does well (whether it’s winning promotion via the playoffs or sneaking into the european slots in the final round of games).  Think back to the season that we won the pro12, we were seen as being completely out of contention during the 6 nation but put a run of superb wins together to just sneak into the playoffs and then just continued with that momentum through to the final.
I have faith that we will make the playoffs and possibly the semifinals, but then having to go to Leinster in the semifinals and win would probably be a step too far for our current squad.
We also have a challenge cup 1/4 final to look forward to, yes Toulon will be firm favourites, but that puts less pressure on us.
Is that a case for finishing 3rd being a better chance of winning the whole thing than finishing 2nd? Although beating both Ulster and Edinburgh away would hardly be easy of course!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Ffidel Bennett Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 February 2020 at 5:02pm
On paper, it's only Leinster that have more raw talent in their squad than we have, but so many other sides manage to outperform us on the day, especially during the international periods. Whether this is due to poor preparation, starting with the analysis of opposition strengths and weaknesses, conditions on the day, or due poor selection and training to overcome these, or our actual error-strewn performances on the day is debatable. Edinburgh's recent visit was a classic example where we were just not ready for the early impact a couple of their best players had, catching us cold, and giving us a mountain to climb for the rest of the game.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote greypower1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 February 2020 at 5:11pm
Originally posted by Ffidel Bennett Ffidel Bennett wrote:

On paper, it's only Leinster that have more raw talent in their squad than we have, but so many other sides manage to outperform us on the day, especially during the international periods. Whether this is due to poor preparation, starting with the analysis of opposition strengths and weaknesses, conditions on the day, or due poor selection and training to overcome these, or our actual error-strewn performances on the day is debatable. Edinburgh's recent visit was a classic example where we were just not ready for the early impact a couple of their best players had, catching us cold, and giving us a mountain to climb for the rest of the game.

You must be joking.  The Irish and Scots Regions have all got better squad players than us.
Keep the faith
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Legendinmybathroom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 February 2020 at 5:53pm
Originally posted by Jones2004 Jones2004 wrote:

Originally posted by Legendinmybathroom Legendinmybathroom wrote:

Providing that we can reintroduce the international players into the match day squad without causing too much disruption (something we struggle with usually) then we’ll be fine.  Third place would do me although I’d be happier with second (and a home 1/4 final playoff spot).
My concern would be the usual reluctance of the Welsh regions to reintroduce the players as quickly as the Irish and Scottish teams (whether that is the region’s decisions or the agreement with the WRU, I don’t know), meaning that we are usually playing catch-up.
We have a tough run in, but so do Munster and Edinburgh (the last 3 rounds are massive for all the top 3.
Remember, we have a new coaching setup (who need time to settle and change things) and we have had to introduce a load of new players to the squad (both overseas players and players from our excellent academy).
Also, it’s often the team that leaves it late to put a run of wins together that does well (whether it’s winning promotion via the playoffs or sneaking into the european slots in the final round of games).  Think back to the season that we won the pro12, we were seen as being completely out of contention during the 6 nation but put a run of superb wins together to just sneak into the playoffs and then just continued with that momentum through to the final.
I have faith that we will make the playoffs and possibly the semifinals, but then having to go to Leinster in the semifinals and win would probably be a step too far for our current squad.
We also have a challenge cup 1/4 final to look forward to, yes Toulon will be firm favourites, but that puts less pressure on us.
Is that a case for finishing 3rd being a better chance of winning the whole thing than finishing 2nd? Although beating both Ulster and Edinburgh away would hardly be easy of course!
I believe that 2nd in one conference plays 3rd in the other conference, the winner of their respective conferences get a bye in the Semifinals, and get home advantage in those semifinals.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Wasp Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 February 2020 at 6:14pm
Originally posted by Legendinmybathroom Legendinmybathroom wrote:

Providing that we can reintroduce the international players into the match day squad without causing too much disruption (something we struggle with usually) then we’ll be fine.  Third place would do me although I’d be happier with second (and a home 1/4 final playoff spot).
My concern would be the usual reluctance of the Welsh regions to reintroduce the players as quickly as the Irish and Scottish teams (whether that is the region’s decisions or the agreement with the WRU, I don’t know), meaning that we are usually playing catch-up.
We have a tough run in, but so do Munster and Edinburgh (the last 3 rounds are massive for all the top 3.
Remember, we have a new coaching setup (who need time to settle and change things) and we have had to introduce a load of new players to the squad (both overseas players and players from our excellent academy).
Also, it’s often the team that leaves it late to put a run of wins together that does well (whether it’s winning promotion via the playoffs or sneaking into the european slots in the final round of games).  Think back to the season that we won the pro12, we were seen as being completely out of contention during the 6 nation but put a run of superb wins together to just sneak into the playoffs and then just continued with that momentum through to the final.
I have faith that we will make the playoffs and possibly the semifinals, but then having to go to Leinster in the semifinals and win would probably be a step too far for our current squad.
We also have a challenge cup 1/4 final to look forward to, yes Toulon will be firm favourites, but that puts less pressure on us.
Most important thing for us from a rugby perspective, but also a commercial perspective is to get a home play off
We're still still here!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Wasp Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 February 2020 at 7:16pm
Ultimately what we get in our next 2 away games will pretty much define where we can get to. 
We're still still here!
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