Home advantage |
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dyniol53
Veteran Joined: 08 April 2018 Location: Llundain Status: Offline Points: 1949 |
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Posted: 06 December 2021 at 4:15pm |
There are a few studies out recently that demonstrate why Home advantage is such a big things
The main role of home advantage is the crowds influence on referees
The COVID-19 pandemic forced almost all professional football matches worlwide to be played in empty stadiums. This large-scale natural experiment offers a unique opportunity to assess the impact of social pressure on decision making and behavior. In particular, I investigate the effect of the home crowd on match outcomes and referee decisions. Using a large dataset from 41 professional football leagues in 30 different countries, I find that the home advantage in match outcomes drops by around one half and that referee bias against away teams completely disappears following the lockdowns. My results therefore suggest that social pressure exerted by home crowds has an important effect on the behavior of referees and on game outcomes. |
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dyniol53
Veteran Joined: 08 April 2018 Location: Llundain Status: Offline Points: 1949 |
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The Covid-19 pandemic has induced worldwide natural experiments on the effects of crowds. We exploit one of these experiments that took place over several countries in almost identical settings: professional football matches played behind closed doors within the 2019/20 league seasons. We find large and statistically significant effects on the number of yellow cards issued by referees. Without a crowd, fewer cards were awarded to the away teams, reducing home advantage. These results have implications for the influence of social pressure and crowds on the neutrality of decisions.
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dyniol53
Veteran Joined: 08 April 2018 Location: Llundain Status: Offline Points: 1949 |
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One of my theories for some time has been that home advantage in rugby is so pronounced because there are so many marginal calls.
I’m a stadium like the principality where fans are so close to the pitch, you can see why the referees might be influenced and intimidated. The effect size in those studies is also much larger than you’d expect, which means some sports teams should focus on making their atmosphere as intimidating as possible, possibly at the expense of ticket sales match day revenue, to ensure they’re more likely to get those 50/50 calls.
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ladram
Rambler Joined: 08 April 2005 Location: United Kingdom Status: Offline Points: 26826 |
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munster obviously didn't read that study.
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roy munster
Veteran Joined: 30 August 2010 Status: Offline Points: 15683 |
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Its not only intimidation the home crowd draws huge attention to all the areas where the opposition have transgressed , in their myopic view lol
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ROYMOND MUNTER MBE (FOR SERVICES TO THE COMBOVER)
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dyniol53
Veteran Joined: 08 April 2018 Location: Llundain Status: Offline Points: 1949 |
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Away wins with fans in stadiums, excluding Italy, since 2015 RWC
2016 (2/10) 🏴£ 9 - 15 🏴 🇫🇷 21 - 31 🏴 2017 (1/10) 🏴 16 - 21 🏴 2018 (2/10) 🇫🇷 13 - 15 🇮🇪 🏴 15 - 24 🇮🇪 2019 (4/10) 🇫🇷 19 - 24 🏴 🇮🇪 20 - 32 🏴 🏴£ 13 - 22 🇮🇪 🏴£ 11 - 18 🏴 2020 (2/8) 🏴£ 6 - 13 🏴 🏴 22 - 27 🇫🇷 2022 (1/6 so far…) 🏴£ 17 - 36 🇫🇷 That’s 12 ‘big’ away wins from 56 games since Scotland stopped being sh*t |
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aber-fan
Veteran Joined: 25 October 2004 Location: Wales Status: Offline Points: 18857 |
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Thanks - that proves how important home advantage is in the 6N. I thought Ireland had a chance in Paris after their form in the Autumn - but no. (France are so good they'll probably beat Wales in Cardiff, unfortunately.)
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“You cannot reason a man out of what he never reasoned himself into.” (Jonathan Swift)
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dyniol53
Veteran Joined: 08 April 2018 Location: Llundain Status: Offline Points: 1949 |
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I think France and Ireland will both win away next weekend.
If they do the hype will be justified for both teams. It’s also worth noting France always do better than normal following a Lions year, and the team with the most Lions players out injured is us. It’s one of those games where I genuinely have no idea in what facet of the game we might beat them..?
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GPR - Rochester
Veteran Joined: 01 December 2014 Location: Rhydcymerau Status: Offline Points: 18784 |
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I am pretty sure we will beat them in amount of turnovers conceded and lineouts lost
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dyniol53
Veteran Joined: 08 April 2018 Location: Llundain Status: Offline Points: 1949 |
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