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Scottish/Welsh Independence.

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GPR - Rochester View Drop Down
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    Posted: 02 June 2021 at 3:09pm
Sospan - your question is very fair & one I have considered quite often. I have absolutely no doubt that Scottish & Welsh people are just as capable as our counterparts in England. I guess my main concern revolves around size both in natural resource & in critical infrastructure. 

Dai my rather tongue in cheek question regarding perhaps a visit by Russian warships up the Clyde or into Milford Haven is my way of questioning our infrastructure capability when compared with that of England. Negotiating Independence with a Union supporting government in Westminster from a position of severe minority & weakness is not a great bargaining position. 

Both Scotland & Wales have voted against Independence in my lifetime so a case of overwhelming majority in favour is difficult to suggest. The stated desire by the SNP to re-enter the European Union will not be the foregone conclusion they suggest. The critical fiscal requirements so ignored when Greece joined & then ran into severe problems will probably be a major stumbling block for Scotland.

I guess my overriding belief is that being part of the large Union just about outweighs the benefit of being able to get rid of the old Etonian, snouts in the trough, brigade. If we were to embark on Independence for Wales I would be more likely to support if the Welsh Parliament categorically committed to some form of proportional representation in the future which would remove the current cosy arrangements which serve the Labour & Tory parties.
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RR1972 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RR1972 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 June 2021 at 3:15pm
A huge no from me , economic suicide. Look at the number of people on benefits, the number of people in civil servant roles, the low number of high income earners.  Look at the people running the senedd all ex social workers or union reps, no one there whose run a successful business. I wouldn’t trust them to run a tuck shop let alone our economy

Edited by RR1972 - 02 June 2021 at 3:21pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote GPR - Rochester Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 June 2021 at 3:25pm
Originally posted by RR1972 RR1972 wrote:

A huge no from me , economic suicide. Look at the number of people on benefits, the number of people in civil servant roles, the low number of high income earners.  Look at the people running the senedd all ex social workers or union reps, no one there whose run a successful business. I wouldn’t trust them to run a tuck shop let alone our economy

RR I really wish you stopped sitting on the fenceBig smile
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dai Guevara Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 June 2021 at 3:44pm
Originally posted by RR1972 RR1972 wrote:

A huge no from me , economic suicide. Look at the number of people on benefits, the number of people in civil servant roles, the low number of high income earners.  Look at the people running the senedd all ex social workers or union reps, no one there whose run a successful business. I wouldn’t trust them to run a tuck shop let alone our economy

And of course none of this has anything to do with being ruled from London
since 1277, since when our main use has been cannon-fodder for the English Empire and as a pretty location for English second homes.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RR1972 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 June 2021 at 3:51pm
Not that i am an especially big fan of whitehall either tbh. Maybe the nationalists here can tell me how we can cope financially? What currency would we use? Who will replAce all the jobs that a downsized dvla land reg tax service etc would shed? There are ove 32 k employed civil servants in wales . Where are they going to find work? Wales is neck and neck with n east as the part of the uk most reliant on benefits, who will fund them?

Edited by RR1972 - 02 June 2021 at 3:56pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dr_martinov Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 June 2021 at 3:52pm
Sounds good.... we could re-join the EU.

Sorry, couldn't resist. Wink
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RR1972 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RR1972 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 June 2021 at 3:57pm
Originally posted by dr_martinov dr_martinov wrote:

Sounds good.... we could re-join the EU.

Sorry, couldn't resist. Wink
 we voted leave would they have us back? For an indy wales re joining the eu is a no brainer tbh
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KID A Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 June 2021 at 4:16pm
It would be quite a remarkable exception if Wales was a country unable to stand on it's own two feet when virtually every other nation on the planet is able to do so. Look at the likes of Slovenia half the population as Wales, nowhere near the estimated GDP as Wales.

Imagine a country like Portugal being run from a building in Madrid. We'd think it was ridiculous.

Wales has a high enough GDP and resources to be independent. I was never convinced of it at all until a couple of years ago. It's the only chance we've got to rid ourselves of the farce that is Westminster making bad decisions for us. People who have likely never set foot in Wales!

Sadly, I don't think there is the pull for it in Wales. Too many people don't like change or don't want to upset people. It's ingrained in so many people that 'this is just the way it is', so let it be.


Maybe Scotland making a success of independence will change a few people's minds. What I do feel strongly about though is making it very loud and clear that

A VOTE FOR INDEPENDENCE:

Is anti Westminster; NOT anti England


I have many English friends and when I mention independence, they seem to take it as a personal insult. I have no idea why. A nation wanting to govern itself should not be taken as an insult by anyone. This is how deeply ingrained in people's minds the situation is.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote SospanMawr Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 June 2021 at 4:23pm
I am personally pro-independence. I don’t claim to have all (or even many) of how the specifics would work. But I am certainly in favour of Welsh people making decisions in Wales that affect Welsh people.

If you asked me for my ideal version, I would like an independent Wales, Scotland and England that collaborated on key areas. For example, sharing and all contributing according to population to a shared military/navy/airforce.

I am definitely not a Labour supporter. But Wales has voted Labour every year since 1922, and in the last 120 years we have had just 30 years of Labour majority. Why on earth would any Westminster Govt go out of their way to look after/help/invest in Wales knowing that it won’t actually really affect their chances of being elected?

In 2019 it was estimated that the inequality between Wales and London was the worst of any area compared to their country’s capital in Europe? Swansea Bay tidal lagoon project - £1.2bn (cancelled). HS2 - £107bn (potential estimate). There won’t be a single foot of rail in Wales. But it’s been classified as benefiting Wales AND England, so we can’t even get any Barnett formula payments whilst Scotland and Ireland do?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 June 2021 at 4:28pm
It’s natural to lump them together under the same question but Scottish and Welsh independence are very different prospects.

The SNP position is to leave the U.K. and join the EU.

Given a majority of Welsh voters voted to leave the EU I can’t imagine leaving the U.K to join the EU is something Welsh voters want, at least I don’t hear that much. 

The main tangible justification for the rest of the UK not wanting Scotland to leave is pretty much defence. It’s a logistical nightmare trying to find a deep water port to move the trident submarines.

The problem for the SNP is that, even though support for independence is very high, the actual logistics of independence are now more difficult than they were in 2014.

What currency to use is a serious issue, especially as Scotland’s economy is very reliant on banking and finance. Whether they keep the pound, create a Scottish currency or peg their currency to the dollar/euro. All options have very real and immediate consequences for Scottish pensions and businesses.

Likewise Scotland actually joining the EU seems pretty unlikely because of Scotland’s deficit is too large and then other countries have to approve that and the Spanish government won’t. So that’s a 20+ year project at least.

Then there’s the more mundane stuff that would have to be sorted out, borders with NI and Eng. Whether Orkney and Shetland would want their own independence akin to the Isle of Man, Jersey, Guernsey as a result. How do the trade deals that are being negotiated by U.K. gov translate to an independent Scotland etc.

Then there’s the issue of existing devolved powers; health and education. The SNP is currently going backwards in both compared to the rest of the U.K. Drug deaths, obesity, alcoholism are all worse in Scotland than rUK. Scotland used to be one of the highest ranked countries for poor kids doing well in education, but that’s nowhere near where it was 40 years ago.

As I said on the other post, supporters point to Ireland’s growth since becoming independent but that took literally 70 years of stagnation before tax reforms in the mid-90s. And there’s no sign that the SNP want to become independent to lower corporation taxes or increase foreign direct investment.

I lived in Glasgow a few years ago and many friends supported independence but didn’t want to think about these questions, which I think is sad. Because Scotland could be a really wealthy independent country but the politicians that want to deliver independence just say “we’ll borrow shedloads of cash and then it will be fine” as if that has never been tried before.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote SospanMawr Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 June 2021 at 4:34pm
Originally posted by RR1972 RR1972 wrote:

A huge no from me , economic suicide. Look at the number of people on benefits, the number of people in civil servant roles, the low number of high income earners.  Look at the people running the senedd all ex social workers or union reps, no one there whose run a successful business. I wouldn’t trust them to run a tuck shop let alone our economy
The bits in bold have been achieved whilst being ruled by our neighbours and being part of a union that is supposed to benefit us, hasn’t it?

Fair point about the level of politician in Wales but we’re currently being run by a man who has a history of racist, sexist and homophobic comments, twice sacked for lying and has overseen the highest number of COVID deaths in Europe? If there was more power in Welsh politics would we attract a higher standard of politicians?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote SospanMawr Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 June 2021 at 4:37pm
Originally posted by KID A KID A wrote:

It would be quite a remarkable exception if Wales was a country unable to stand on it's own two feet when virtually every other nation on the planet is able to do so. Look at the likes of Slovenia half the population as Wales, nowhere near the estimated GDP as Wales.

Imagine a country like Portugal being run from a building in Madrid. We'd think it was ridiculous.

Wales has a high enough GDP and resources to be independent. I was never convinced of it at all until a couple of years ago. It's the only chance we've got to rid ourselves of the farce that is Westminster making bad decisions for us. People who have likely never set foot in Wales!

Sadly, I don't think there is the pull for it in Wales. Too many people don't like change or don't want to upset people. It's ingrained in so many people that 'this is just the way it is', so let it be.


Maybe Scotland making a success of independence will change a few people's minds. What I do feel strongly about though is making it very loud and clear that

A VOTE FOR INDEPENDENCE:

Is anti Westminster; NOT anti England


I have many English friends and when I mention independence, they seem to take it as a personal insult. I have no idea why. A nation wanting to govern itself should not be taken as an insult by anyone. This is how deeply ingrained in people's minds the situation is.
Great post especially the bit I’ve bolded.

Surely no one on here gets told by their next door neighbour what car to buy, what books to read, what to have for dinner, where to spend their money or how much to spend?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RR1972 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 June 2021 at 5:12pm
No one has yet answered what curremcy we use? How we replace the jobs that will be lost? Just a lot of passionate rhetoric. With no actual answers, indy wales would be a poorer wales with a worst standard of living, no wonder the vast majority of the populaton don’t want it. Nationalists all over the world as a rule regardless of creed colour or political leaning don’t tend to have many answers when it comes to details such as finances etc 



Edited by RR1972 - 02 June 2021 at 5:30pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dai Guevara Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 June 2021 at 5:14pm


re Sospanmawr

Maybe if next-door controlled the vast majority of the information you received and it wasn't easy finding out what was really going on, they could scare you into doing what they wanted "voluntarily".

Edited by Dai Guevara - 02 June 2021 at 5:18pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jones2004 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 June 2021 at 6:23pm
GPR made a point about us negotiating from a position of weakness and I’d just like to react quickly to that. While we’d undoubtedly be negotiating from a position of weakness for simple population reasons (like the UK with Brexit) there are a few areas where we could influence considerable power. Firstly the water and electricity exports worth a few billion £ pa that we currently export for free. And secondly, and much more crucial, the fact that we legally would not be required to take on our share of the UK debt if we went independent meaning that we’d have a £100bn ‘advantage’ in the negotiations. That means that our negotiating position wouldn’t be half as weak as some imagine.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RR1972 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 June 2021 at 6:32pm
We can pull the debt card, england can then with draw all our civil service and mod jobs, they can also put a tarriff on any welsh exports there.  They can even bring in a work permit system if they wanted for welsh people who work in england Plus ban us from using the pound, how will that effect our economy? We don’t have the cards to be playing hard ball with england and people need to realise it. As i said good luck funding our nhs our benefit system to it’s current levels on a welsh only economy. No one seems to able to put any ‘meat on the financial bones”  of independence.

Edited by RR1972 - 02 June 2021 at 6:47pm
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