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Rob o'r Bont View Drop Down
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Points: 14172 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rob o'r Bont Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 January 2021 at 7:59am
Got to wait 5 years to discuss this point properly as every respected economic foreacast said the UK would be worse off in the short term (about 5 years). 

Edited by Rob o'r Bont - 27 January 2021 at 3:39pm
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Originally posted by Rob o'r Bont Rob o'r Bont wrote:

Got to wait 5 years to discuss this point properly as every respected economic foreacast said the UK would be worse off in the sort term (about 5 years). 

Somebody needs to tell Aber. Wink
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Telling quote from Ursula von der Leyen recently :-

Mrs von der Leyen has spoken to a number of newspapers in recent days but this was her first public acceptance of criticism. Last week, she told German website Süddeutsche Zeitung that "a country on its own can be a speedboat, the EU is more like a tanker".

Well guess who the speedboat is % population vaccinated :-

UK 19.2
EU 3.9.

Enough said I think, 
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Originally posted by GPR - Rochester GPR - Rochester wrote:

Telling quote from Ursula von der Leyen recently :-

Mrs von der Leyen has spoken to a number of newspapers in recent days but this was her first public acceptance of criticism. Last week, she told German website Süddeutsche Zeitung that "a country on its own can be a speedboat, the EU is more like a tanker".

Well guess who the speedboat is % population vaccinated :-

UK 19.2
EU 3.9.

Enough said I think, 
Important to point out that the UK could still have run its vaccination programme as it has even if it were still a EU member (most of the contracts were signed and the first vaccine approved when we were still following EU rules). However the criticism of the slow reactions of the EU are fully deserved.
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Originally posted by Jones2004 Jones2004 wrote:

Originally posted by GPR - Rochester GPR - Rochester wrote:

Telling quote from Ursula von der Leyen recently :-

Mrs von der Leyen has spoken to a number of newspapers in recent days but this was her first public acceptance of criticism. Last week, she told German website Süddeutsche Zeitung that "a country on its own can be a speedboat, the EU is more like a tanker".

Well guess who the speedboat is % population vaccinated :-

UK 19.2
EU 3.9.

Enough said I think, 
Important to point out that the UK could still have run its vaccination programme as it has even if it were still a EU member (most of the contracts were signed and the first vaccine approved when we were still following EU rules). However the criticism of the slow reactions of the EU are fully deserved.
The EU cancelled Germany's application for vaccination
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Rob o'r Bont View Drop Down
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Got to remember that it's an unlicensed vaccine that the UK Government has allowed to be rolled out.  It's been thoroughly tested but hasn't gone through the full rigours of being licensed. Nothing wrong with this as it's the sort of decision that's sensible to do in a pandemic emergency. 

A difference in philosophy between the EU and UK I guess and one which Brexiteers will use to explain why they voted to leave. However I would also add that had we kept the death toll down to levels seen in the EU then we might not have been in such a panic to roll out the vaccine in the first place. 

In the final analysis, countries will be judged on their death toll, not the speed at which they delivered the vaccine.
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Originally posted by Rob o'r Bont Rob o'r Bont wrote:

Got to remember that it's an unlicensed vaccine that the UK Government has allowed to be rolled out.  It's been thoroughly tested but hasn't gone through the full rigours of being licensed. Nothing wrong with this as it's the sort of decision that's sensible to do in a pandemic emergency. 

A difference in philosophy between the EU and UK I guess and one which Brexiteers will use to explain why they voted to leave. However I would also add that had we kept the death toll down to levels seen in the EU then we might not have been in such a panic to roll out the vaccine in the first place. 

In the final analysis, countries will be judged on their death toll, not the speed at which they delivered the vaccine.

Yes, but the argument is those that deliver the vaccine fastest will reduce their death toll.

One thing I do find a bit strange is that for all their obsession over borders, the Government have been unable or unwilling to place any real restriction on entering or leaving the UK until very recently. Thousands of skiiers going off on holiday this winter for example. How on earth? Not to mention numerous rich influencers or businesspeople simply doing what they want.

And then evidence. So the Kent strain is now in 70 countries and is now being predicted to become the most dominant strain worldwide. It was first characterised in late September so this has occurred within 3 months. Therefore our borders have not been restricted at all, or whatever restrictions were in place did not work, even after the experience of having had the virus here since January. 
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Originally posted by dr_martinov dr_martinov wrote:

Originally posted by Rob o'r Bont Rob o'r Bont wrote:

Got to remember that it's an unlicensed vaccine that the UK Government has allowed to be rolled out.  It's been thoroughly tested but hasn't gone through the full rigours of being licensed. Nothing wrong with this as it's the sort of decision that's sensible to do in a pandemic emergency. 

A difference in philosophy between the EU and UK I guess and one which Brexiteers will use to explain why they voted to leave. However I would also add that had we kept the death toll down to levels seen in the EU then we might not have been in such a panic to roll out the vaccine in the first place. 

In the final analysis, countries will be judged on their death toll, not the speed at which they delivered the vaccine.

Yes, but the argument is those that deliver the vaccine fastest will reduce their death toll.

One thing I do find a bit strange is that for all their obsession over borders, the Government have been unable or unwilling to place any real restriction on entering or leaving the UK until very recently. Thousands of skiiers going off on holiday this winter for example. How on earth? Not to mention numerous rich influencers or businesspeople simply doing what they want.

And then evidence. So the Kent strain is now in 70 countries and is now being predicted to become the most dominant strain worldwide. It was first characterised in late September so this has occurred within 3 months. Therefore our borders have not been restricted at all, or whatever restrictions were in place did not work, even after the experience of having had the virus here since January. 

I simply dont think the govt could be bothered with the enormous work involved in shutting non urgent travel and setting up a comprehensive system of quarantine for all arrivals. The chunnel never shut, the flights kept coming and going. Even now this supposed hotel quarantine sounds half baked.
Lest we forget in the case  of the vaccines, the scientists and nhs and the systems already in place did the roll out for the government with all the necessary organization in place as we always do mass flu jabs etc But when it comes to setting up something new like a vast effective quarantine system or track and trace they fell woefully short. 
ROYMOND MUNTER MBE (FOR SERVICES TO THE COMBOVER)
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Originally posted by roy munster roy munster wrote:

Originally posted by dr_martinov dr_martinov wrote:

Originally posted by Rob o'r Bont Rob o'r Bont wrote:

Got to remember that it's an unlicensed vaccine that the UK Government has allowed to be rolled out.  It's been thoroughly tested but hasn't gone through the full rigours of being licensed. Nothing wrong with this as it's the sort of decision that's sensible to do in a pandemic emergency. 

A difference in philosophy between the EU and UK I guess and one which Brexiteers will use to explain why they voted to leave. However I would also add that had we kept the death toll down to levels seen in the EU then we might not have been in such a panic to roll out the vaccine in the first place. 

In the final analysis, countries will be judged on their death toll, not the speed at which they delivered the vaccine.

Yes, but the argument is those that deliver the vaccine fastest will reduce their death toll.

One thing I do find a bit strange is that for all their obsession over borders, the Government have been unable or unwilling to place any real restriction on entering or leaving the UK until very recently. Thousands of skiiers going off on holiday this winter for example. How on earth? Not to mention numerous rich influencers or businesspeople simply doing what they want.

And then evidence. So the Kent strain is now in 70 countries and is now being predicted to become the most dominant strain worldwide. It was first characterised in late September so this has occurred within 3 months. Therefore our borders have not been restricted at all, or whatever restrictions were in place did not work, even after the experience of having had the virus here since January. 

I simply dont think the govt could be bothered with the enormous work involved in shutting non urgent travel and setting up a comprehensive system of quarantine for all arrivals. The chunnel never shut, the flights kept coming and going. Even now this supposed hotel quarantine sounds half baked.
Lest we forget in the case  of the vaccines, the scientists and nhs and the systems already in place did the roll out for the government with all the necessary organization in place as we always do mass flu jabs etc But when it comes to setting up something new like a vast effective quarantine system or track and trace they fell woefully short. 

It does a bit and seems to be very high fines/punishment for countries already blocked and relatively affordable ones for the rest. There is an aspect of this contradiction between a pro-Brexit but very libertarian Government and what is required to keep coronavirus in check, and evidence their backers (donors and the right-wing press, which are often the same people) have had a lot of influence in delaying lockdowns and ending them, plus making them very hesitant to impose any travel restriction etc. And then led by a professional bullpoo artist we have the inevitable result. But I digress. 
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Originally posted by dr_martinov dr_martinov wrote:

Originally posted by Rob o'r Bont Rob o'r Bont wrote:

Got to remember that it's an unlicensed vaccine that the UK Government has allowed to be rolled out.  It's been thoroughly tested but hasn't gone through the full rigours of being licensed. Nothing wrong with this as it's the sort of decision that's sensible to do in a pandemic emergency. 

A difference in philosophy between the EU and UK I guess and one which Brexiteers will use to explain why they voted to leave. However I would also add that had we kept the death toll down to levels seen in the EU then we might not have been in such a panic to roll out the vaccine in the first place. 

In the final analysis, countries will be judged on their death toll, not the speed at which they delivered the vaccine.

Yes, but the argument is those that deliver the vaccine fastest will reduce their death toll.

One thing I do find a bit strange is that for all their obsession over borders, the Government have been unable or unwilling to place any real restriction on entering or leaving the UK until very recently. Thousands of skiiers going off on holiday this winter for example. How on earth? Not to mention numerous rich influencers or businesspeople simply doing what they want.

And then evidence. So the Kent strain is now in 70 countries and is now being predicted to become the most dominant strain worldwide. It was first characterised in late September so this has occurred within 3 months. Therefore our borders have not been restricted at all, or whatever restrictions were in place did not work, even after the experience of having had the virus here since January. 
Can't reduce the death toll mun. Smile But I know what you mean. 
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Originally posted by GPR - Rochester GPR - Rochester wrote:

Originally posted by Rob o'r Bont Rob o'r Bont wrote:

Got to wait 5 years to discuss this point properly as every respected economic foreacast said the UK would be worse off in the sort term (about 5 years). 

Somebody needs to tell Aber. Wink

Great. It'll be too late by then, won't it?

In the meantime, exports fall by 40%, though of course the pandemic is partly responsible. This provides a convenient figleaf for the government - unfortunately.


Is there anyone out there who doesn't think that we'll have to rejoin the customs union (at least) sooner or later?

What a mess!
“You cannot reason a man out of what he never reasoned himself into.” (Jonathan Swift)
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Originally posted by aber-fan aber-fan wrote:

Originally posted by GPR - Rochester GPR - Rochester wrote:

Originally posted by Rob o'r Bont Rob o'r Bont wrote:

Got to wait 5 years to discuss this point properly as every respected economic foreacast said the UK would be worse off in the sort term (about 5 years). 

Somebody needs to tell Aber. Wink

Great. It'll be too late by then, won't it?

In the meantime, exports fall by 40%, though of course the pandemic is partly responsible. This provides a convenient figleaf for the government - unfortunately.


Is there anyone out there who doesn't think that we'll have to rejoin the customs union (at least) sooner or later?

What a mess!

Aber I know we've had a good joust about this situation but we cannot draw any conclusions on economic effects of Brexit until the economy returns to full working & we get rid of the undoubted pent up demand there will be and some form of normality, whatever shape that will be. Getting businesses back to speed and thousands of people back to work is clearly our top priority. 

The only observation which I can draw over these first few weeks is that it does appear that our leaving has really upset many top politicians in the EU and their reactions over vaccine shipments and problems created in Northern Ireland by the NI protocols are worrying if that points to the future level of co-operation we are going to see. Hopefully someone within the 27 will take a deep breath and start leading with diplomacy.
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Originally posted by aber-fan aber-fan wrote:

Originally posted by GPR - Rochester GPR - Rochester wrote:

Originally posted by Rob o'r Bont Rob o'r Bont wrote:

Got to wait 5 years to discuss this point properly as every respected economic foreacast said the UK would be worse off in the sort term (about 5 years). 

Somebody needs to tell Aber. Wink

Great. It'll be too late by then, won't it?

In the meantime, exports fall by 40%, though of course the pandemic is partly responsible. This provides a convenient figleaf for the government - unfortunately.


Is there anyone out there who doesn't think that we'll have to rejoin the customs union (at least) sooner or later?

What a mess!
Aber, my point was that it's quite clearly a mess and everyone knew it was going to be a mess.  It will be bad for the UK for the next 5 years at least and may continue to be bad long after that.  

You will see the UK government pointing to things like the Oxford Vaccine to demonstrate how the UK can go it alone and be the best etc etc, whilst completely ignoring the fact that the Oxford vaccine was underpinned by 7 or 8 years of EU research funding jointly researched by an EU consortium of which Oxford Uni was one partrner. 

The EU has recently shot itself in the foot a few times as GPR has pointed out, and this reminds us that we live in an imperfect world. 
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