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roy munster View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roy munster Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 November 2021 at 4:46pm
Originally posted by Jones2004 Jones2004 wrote:

Originally posted by roy munster roy munster wrote:

Originally posted by Legendinmybathroom Legendinmybathroom wrote:

The uptake of the vaccination within the whole of the NHS in Wales is 95% (and I include myself in that figure).  The figures in the other devolved nations is similar.
That is why the WAG feel that they don’t need to make it compulsory for all NHS Wales staff to be vaccinated to stay in their posts.
However the figures in England are much lower, the figure being bandied about by Savid Javid are 100k nurses and when you add to that the other health professionals within the NHS who also haven’t been vaccinated, that figure could be upwards of 110k.
even if it is 5%, that can kill 100s of thousands of the most vulnerable. Honestly why take such a  risk again, its totally unnecessary and frankly its bonkers. Get ALL nhs and care home workers double jabbed , UNLESS they have serious health reason why they cant. If they still choose not to have it, hit the road jack. Would you want unvaccinated staff caring for your friends and relatives ? I wouldnt neither would most people
I’m afraid the question you’re asking there is the wrong one. The question you should be asking is would you prefer to be looked after by an unvaccinated nurse / health worker, or no one? The NHS has serious staffing problems. If they overnight lose 5% of their staff then that would mean greatly reduced care and all types of other problems. Yes, staff who refuse to get vaccinated are selfish, but getting rid of 5% of the health workforce is going to make everything a lot worse. 

No one thank you. Besides its not getting rid of 5% its giving them an ultimatum some no doubt will see the light and do the right thing the others can leave. If that staff member is refusing a jab they shouldnt be working for the nhs imo..I wouldnt want anyone being put at this extra risk...Given what we know how contagious and lethal this disease is and how many vulverable people its already killed, over 140,000 the majority elderly sick or disabled..Knowing all this to now take the risk of allowing thousands of health care and nhs workers to go unvaccinated is the most insane decision Ive ever heard. A lot of people more innocent will die unnecessarily because of this. Youre defending the indefensible. 


Edited by roy munster - 11 November 2021 at 4:48pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Eastern outpost Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 November 2021 at 4:52pm
Originally posted by reesytheexile reesytheexile wrote:

FREEDOM DAY!
I complete my Covid isolation period today! Only moderate cold symptoms tbh. I am a shielded person with my lungs and obviously the fear of Covid affecting them was a big worry! Double vaxef and booster jabbed ( the latter only 3 days before my positive test ) will have helped so much! So big thanks to the brilliant scientists and NHS Wales! As some political pillock once said “ I’m bursting with antibodies “ 😂
Great news! 

Hope you celebrated with something from your wine stock, if there was anything left Wink
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote reesytheexile Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 November 2021 at 5:02pm
Originally posted by Eastern outpost Eastern outpost wrote:

Originally posted by reesytheexile reesytheexile wrote:

FREEDOM DAY!
I complete my Covid isolation period today! Only moderate cold symptoms tbh. I am a shielded person with my lungs and obviously the fear of Covid affecting them was a big worry! Double vaxef and booster jabbed ( the latter only 3 days before my positive test ) will have helped so much! So big thanks to the brilliant scientists and NHS Wales! As some political pillock once said “ I’m bursting with antibodies “ 😂
Great news! 

Hope you celebrated with something from your wine stock, if there was anything left Wink
😂 A case or two of wine from your France ‘Cave’ to help my convalescence is always welcome EO! 😉😂

Edited by reesytheexile - 11 November 2021 at 5:03pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Eastern outpost Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 November 2021 at 7:23pm
Originally posted by reesytheexile reesytheexile wrote:

Originally posted by Eastern outpost Eastern outpost wrote:

Originally posted by reesytheexile reesytheexile wrote:

FREEDOM DAY!
I complete my Covid isolation period today! Only moderate cold symptoms tbh. I am a shielded person with my lungs and obviously the fear of Covid affecting them was a big worry! Double vaxef and booster jabbed ( the latter only 3 days before my positive test ) will have helped so much! So big thanks to the brilliant scientists and NHS Wales! As some political pillock once said “ I’m bursting with antibodies “ 😂
Great news! 

Hope you celebrated with something from your wine stock, if there was anything left Wink
😂 A case or two of wine from your France ‘Cave’ to help my convalescence is always welcome EO! 😉😂
Are you suggesting I’ve got my own mini wine lake?Big smile
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roy munster Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 November 2021 at 1:02am
Originally posted by reesytheexile reesytheexile wrote:

FREEDOM DAY!
I complete my Covid isolation period today! Only moderate cold symptoms tbh. I am a shielded person with my lungs and obviously the fear of Covid affecting them was a big worry! Double vaxef and booster jabbed ( the latter only 3 days before my positive test ) will have helped so much! So big thanks to the brilliant scientists and NHS Wales! As some political pillock once said “ I’m bursting with antibodies “ 😂

glad to hear youre recovering reesy
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dr_martinov Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 November 2021 at 11:05am
A meta-analysis on covid protection methods found a 53% reduction in covid-19 incidence from wearing masks.
So there we have it. Masks are easy to use and do have a significant impact. The end.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote sospanman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 November 2021 at 11:59am
Originally posted by dr_martinov dr_martinov wrote:

A meta-analysis on covid protection methods found a 53% reduction in covid-19 incidence from wearing masks.
So there we have it. Masks are easy to use and do have a significant impact. The end.

I wonder why it has taken so long to publish these data? Irrespective of that, it seems disappointing that the WAG did not apply the (common sense) precautionary principle at the outset. 
Incidentally, what is your take on the significantly higher infection rates in Wales, where face coverings have been mandatory, compared with England?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dr_martinov Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 November 2021 at 12:30pm
Originally posted by sospanman sospanman wrote:

Originally posted by dr_martinov dr_martinov wrote:

A meta-analysis on covid protection methods found a 53% reduction in covid-19 incidence from wearing masks.
So there we have it. Masks are easy to use and do have a significant impact. The end.

I wonder why it has taken so long to publish these data? Irrespective of that, it seems disappointing that the WAG did not apply the (common sense) precautionary principle at the outset. 
Incidentally, what is your take on the significantly higher infection rates in Wales, where face coverings have been mandatory, compared with England?

It is a meta-analysis so is analysing other already published studies. I think it's been because most studies have been looking at several measures together (distancing, lockdown, face masks, hand washing) so it's been hard to separate each. This new analysis attempts to do just that.

Not sure, I think it's clear masks aren't the only thing and I don't know how well or not people are adhering to restrictions or recommendations in the UK nations. Looking at it, there's not a large difference in my view, approx. 480 per 100,000 compared to 540 per 100,000 or so in England and Wales respectively? (Covid in Wales: What do the stats tell us? - BBC News) Variations in peaks and trough timings of waves play their part but if we do use your point then masks are also mandatory in Scotland, which has a lower case rate than England. I know Scotland kept them in schools, so perhaps that is it? I do see a lot of misuse of masks around me (a kid just coming into co-op without a mask and coughing heavily the other day! Clearly did not care) but I doubt this would be any different in England.

I've been at games, fireworks etc. without wearing a mask as well. I'm not on a holier than thou trip, just I always thought it was pretty clear that masks will have some preventative factor for a virus carried via airbourne particles that are then inhaled/exhaled.


Edited by dr_martinov - 18 November 2021 at 12:33pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 November 2021 at 4:06pm
Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:



We do not find evidence that mandating mask-wearing reduces transmission. Our results suggest that mask-wearing is strongly affected by factors other than mandates. We establish the effectiveness of mass mask-wearing, and highlight that wearing data, not mandate data, are necessary to infer this effect.


It’s easy to understand when you realise you can’t mandate mask wearing at dinner tables


As you know Doc, I don’t doubt whether masks reduce the likelihood of infectious people spreading the disease, but I doubt the effectiveness of mask mandates as a policy response. Which are two separate things.

In the meta-analysis it only touches on mandates and admits the 5 studies are rated as moderately biased. One says “a cross section of 200 countries shows that countries with mask mandates have 49% reduction in covid mortality” which seems like a hilariously poor conclusion. Any state with the capacity to force mask mandates is going to have better hospitals and other policy responses so seems a mad conclusion. 

The best evidence for mask mandates being effective is the below

Similarly, another natural experiment involving 15 US states reported a 2% statistically significant daily decrease in covid-19 transmission (measured as case growth rate) at ≥21 days after mask wearing became mandatory,

Which isn’t the same as “mask mandates stop spread of Covid by 50%” as the BMJ guardian headline would like you to believe. 

Must more like “mask mandates mean your case rates should reduce by 2% in three weeks” … at which point you ask, is the infringement on civil liberties worth it? Maybe…


Edited by dyniol53 - 18 November 2021 at 4:10pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote GPR - Rochester Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 November 2021 at 4:20pm
The meta-analysis metrics etc etc do not really interest me if I am being honest. Plain old common sense suggests to me that wearing masks is good for me & my family in public places - therefore thats what we do. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dr_martinov Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 November 2021 at 4:26pm
Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:



We do not find evidence that mandating mask-wearing reduces transmission. Our results suggest that mask-wearing is strongly affected by factors other than mandates. We establish the effectiveness of mass mask-wearing, and highlight that wearing data, not mandate data, are necessary to infer this effect.


It’s easy to understand when you realise you can’t mandate mask wearing at dinner tables


As you know Doc, I don’t doubt whether masks reduce the likelihood of infectious people spreading the disease, but I doubt the effectiveness of mask mandates as a policy response. Which are two separate things.

Yes. I don't have time to pick through that paper TBH but it is a meta-analysis of studies that were never investigating the sole impact of mask use so will carry the same flaws forward. You are right I saw the headline on the Guardian but I did go through the paper itself briefly to at least check some rigour as I am familiar with how science is reported in the press, usually by journalists with no STEM background. But in honesty I doubt I will understand their method to remove bias or how they analysed it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ladram Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 November 2021 at 5:27pm
Originally posted by GPR - Rochester GPR - Rochester wrote:

The meta-analysis metrics etc etc do not really interest me if I am being honest. Plain old common sense suggests to me that wearing masks is good for me & my family in public places - therefore thats what we do. 
travelled back from kent on train monday and in our carriage i'd say only 40% had masks on.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 November 2021 at 11:32pm
Originally posted by dr_martinov dr_martinov wrote:

Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:



We do not find evidence that mandating mask-wearing reduces transmission. Our results suggest that mask-wearing is strongly affected by factors other than mandates. We establish the effectiveness of mass mask-wearing, and highlight that wearing data, not mandate data, are necessary to infer this effect.


It’s easy to understand when you realise you can’t mandate mask wearing at dinner tables


As you know Doc, I don’t doubt whether masks reduce the likelihood of infectious people spreading the disease, but I doubt the effectiveness of mask mandates as a policy response. Which are two separate things.

Yes. I don't have time to pick through that paper TBH but it is a meta-analysis of studies that were never investigating the sole impact of mask use so will carry the same flaws forward. You are right I saw the headline on the Guardian but I did go through the paper itself briefly to at least check some rigour as I am familiar with how science is reported in the press, usually by journalists with no STEM background. But in honesty I doubt I will understand their method to remove bias or how they analysed it.

The other thing that is alarming in that paper is they’re trying to claim that hand-washing is as effective as mask wearing at reducing spread of the disease… and they claim it’s MORE effective than physical distancing - this makes no sense because we know this is an airborne virus not droplet infections. 

Anyway there is a twitter thread about this guardian article becuause it fits exactly what you’re saying - journalists pulling numbers out of the air to fit a narrative.

People have to be CAREFUL with public health information because it’s important. For the most important 6 weeks of the pandemic public health in the western world denigrated masks as ineffective and even dangerous, based on a faulty assumption about the virus. They’ve then spent the next 2 years trying to overcorrect for that mistake - damaging their reputations further.

I think at the heart of both mistakes is an idea that the public can’t be trusted to do the right thing, so we have to lie to them to get them to do the right thing, and I think that’s bullpoo and is half the lesson of the pandemic  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dr_martinov Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 November 2021 at 8:53am
Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

The other thing that is alarming in that paper is they’re trying to claim that hand-washing is as effective as mask wearing at reducing spread of the disease… and they claim it’s MORE effective than physical distancing - this makes no sense because we know this is an airborne virus not droplet infections. 

Anyway there is a twitter thread about this guardian article becuause it fits exactly what you’re saying - journalists pulling numbers out of the air to fit a narrative.

People have to be CAREFUL with public health information because it’s important. For the most important 6 weeks of the pandemic public health in the western world denigrated masks as ineffective and even dangerous, based on a faulty assumption about the virus. They’ve then spent the next 2 years trying to overcorrect for that mistake - damaging their reputations further.

I think at the heart of both mistakes is an idea that the public can’t be trusted to do the right thing, so we have to lie to them to get them to do the right thing, and I think that’s bullpoo and is half the lesson of the pandemic  


Quickly looking at the visual abstract and the "relative risk" for each, there's much larger error for handwashing. The size of this error bar makes any interpretation of these data problematic, even meaningless. 

As to politicians and coronavirus think we've had a fair few ah... interesting situations. Many high level politicians, including country leaders, did not have the training to actually deal with this. We saw the President of the US suggesting an injection of bleach could work. I mean literally this is what he said. It made me wonder if democracy is all it's cracked up to be.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote totallybiasedscarlet Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 November 2021 at 9:58am
Originally posted by dr_martinov dr_martinov wrote:

Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

The other thing that is alarming in that paper is they’re trying to claim that hand-washing is as effective as mask wearing at reducing spread of the disease… and they claim it’s MORE effective than physical distancing - this makes no sense because we know this is an airborne virus not droplet infections. 

Anyway there is a twitter thread about this guardian article becuause it fits exactly what you’re saying - journalists pulling numbers out of the air to fit a narrative.

People have to be CAREFUL with public health information because it’s important. For the most important 6 weeks of the pandemic public health in the western world denigrated masks as ineffective and even dangerous, based on a faulty assumption about the virus. They’ve then spent the next 2 years trying to overcorrect for that mistake - damaging their reputations further.

I think at the heart of both mistakes is an idea that the public can’t be trusted to do the right thing, so we have to lie to them to get them to do the right thing, and I think that’s bullpoo and is half the lesson of the pandemic  

 Quickly looking at the visual abstract and the "relative risk" for each, there's much larger error for handwashing. The size of this error bar makes any interpretation of these data problematic, even meaningless. 

As to politicians and coronavirus think we've had a fair few ah... interesting situations. Many high level politicians, including country leaders, did not have the training to actually deal with this. We saw the President of the US suggesting an injection of bleach could work. I mean literally this is what he said. It made me wonder if democracy is all it's cracked up to be.

"Herd immunity" was another ... what was it that Johnson reportedly said about the number of deaths when all this started?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 November 2021 at 10:49pm
A Nature paper on long-covid.

Estimate is 7-18% of Covid cases lead to long covid (symptoms beyond 5 weeks)

From there about one third experience some kind of cognitive decline that they didn't experience before. (I can vouch for this - occasionally saying wrong names, difficulty concentrating - sometimes it's a bit like I've developed a mini-stammer) 

Sadly, vaccines protection against long-covid is partial at best with breakthrough cases (people who get covid having been vaccinated) being quite common.

But the Zoe app data suggests two-doses reduce your likelihood of long-covid by about half. But the Zoe app contains more women than men and men are more likely to get stronger symptoms.

But if we're being optimistic it looks like the vaccines make you 50% less likely to spread the disease, about 10x less likely to end up in hospital and 50% less likely to get long-covid. So they're still the best thing we've got.
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