Corona virus

heuristics = rules of thumb 

ap sior wrote: dyniol53 wrote: heuristics = rules of thumb  Jargon from the job, apologies  that's another two words for ladram to challenge 'jargon' and 'apologies'.

dyniol53 wrote: Since Boxing Day it’s clear that Wales’ case rates are higher than that of England.  https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/uk-daily-covid-cases-7day-average So Drakeford has chosen to impose different restriction to England, and has ended up with a higher rate of transmission.  So did these policies, like banning outdoor sports attendance and rule of 6, increase the rate of transmission? Who is to blame for this increase? The welsh public for not following correctly, or did the policies themselves cause an increase?  Earlier posts in the thread seem to suggest that WAG only chose these restrictions because their hands were tied and they couldn’t do the whole raft of covid restrictions without U.K. treasury support - lockdown, furlough, etc I know hospitals are under stress and there is support from army etc but given case rates are now on the decline in England, is it fair to assume that restrictions weren’t necessary?

Going back to this graph for a minute, it's pretty clear why Drakeford had to impose the Boxing day restrictions. The Welsh cases were rising dramatically before Christmas and were in danger of going through the roof beyond Christmas.  You can see the Boxing day restrictions starting to take effect around Jan 2nd when case levels start to drop dramatically. Interestingly, that graph is showing England case levels still rising beyond Jan 2nd as Wales case levels are dropping.

roy munster wrote: how would the tightening of rules increase infections? house parties as opposed to pubs?

I think the tightening of rules has decreased infections roy. Look at dyniol's graph 5 or 6 days after the Boxing Day restrictions are imposed i.e. the dates when the effects of the restrictions were expected to take place. Also, imagine where that curve would be if restrictions had not been imposed.

dyniol53 wrote: heuristics = rules of thumb  Jargon from the job, apologies

Rob o'r Bont wrote: dyniol53 wrote: Since Boxing Day it’s clear that Wales’ case rates are higher than that of England.  https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/uk-daily-covid-cases-7day-average So Drakeford has chosen to impose different restriction to England, and has ended up with a higher rate of transmission.  Going back to this graph for a minute, it's pretty clear why Drakeford had to impose the Boxing day restrictions. The Welsh cases were rising dramatically before Christmas and were in danger of going through the roof beyond Christmas.  You can see the Boxing day restrictions starting to take effect around Jan 2nd when case levels start to drop dramatically. Interestingly, that graph is showing England case levels still rising beyond Jan 2nd as Wales case levels are dropping.

Edited by dyniol53 - 10 January 2022 at 7:26pm

Had a pcr test due to a close contact. V efficient in and out in 5 mins result back two days later thankfully negative. Well done to the welsh nhs

Scotland re-open stadiums on Monday