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dyniol53 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 January 2022 at 12:20pm
heuristics = rules of thumb Wink

Jargon from the job, apologies 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ap sior Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 January 2022 at 12:23pm
Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

heuristics = rules of thumb Wink

Jargon from the job, apologies 

that's another two words for ladram to challenge 'jargon' and 'apologies'.  LOLLOLLOLLOL
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote GPR - Rochester Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 January 2022 at 12:52pm
Originally posted by ap sior ap sior wrote:

Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

heuristics = rules of thumb Wink

Jargon from the job, apologies 

that's another two words for ladram to challenge 'jargon' and 'apologies'.  LOLLOLLOLLOL

Thats a cracker ap sior.LOL Sorry Nige but he got you there fair & square. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote SA14 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 January 2022 at 1:14pm
Always wondered with links regarding covid figures how accurate they are? Some are different to others. 
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Rob o'r Bont View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rob o'r Bont Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 January 2022 at 2:04pm
Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

Since Boxing Day it’s clear that Wales’ case rates are higher than that of England. 


So Drakeford has chosen to impose different restriction to England, and has ended up with a higher rate of transmission. 

So did these policies, like banning outdoor sports attendance and rule of 6, increase the rate of transmission? Who is to blame for this increase? The welsh public for not following correctly, or did the policies themselves cause an increase? 

Earlier posts in the thread seem to suggest that WAG only chose these restrictions because their hands were tied and they couldn’t do the whole raft of covid restrictions without U.K. treasury support - lockdown, furlough, etc

I know hospitals are under stress and there is support from army etc but given case rates are now on the decline in England, is it fair to assume that restrictions weren’t necessary?
Going back to this graph for a minute, it's pretty clear why Drakeford had to impose the Boxing day restrictions. The Welsh cases were rising dramatically before Christmas and were in danger of going through the roof beyond Christmas.  You can see the Boxing day restrictions starting to take effect around Jan 2nd when case levels start to drop dramatically. Interestingly, that graph is showing England case levels still rising beyond Jan 2nd as Wales case levels are dropping.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roy munster Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 January 2022 at 4:23pm
how would the tightening of rules increase infections? house parties as opposed to pubs?
ROYMOND MUNTER MBE (FOR SERVICES TO THE COMBOVER)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rob o'r Bont Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 January 2022 at 4:36pm
Originally posted by roy munster roy munster wrote:

how would the tightening of rules increase infections? house parties as opposed to pubs?
I think the tightening of rules has decreased infections roy. Look at dyniol's graph 5 or 6 days after the Boxing Day restrictions are imposed i.e. the dates when the effects of the restrictions were expected to take place. Also, imagine where that curve would be if restrictions had not been imposed.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ladram Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 January 2022 at 4:38pm
Originally posted by ap sior ap sior wrote:

Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

heuristics = rules of thumb Wink

Jargon from the job, apologies 

that's another two words for ladram to challenge 'jargon' and 'apologies'.  LOLLOLLOLLOL
i know them 2,jargon from crosswords and apologies due to being married 35 years Ouch
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ladram Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 January 2022 at 4:40pm
Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

heuristics = rules of thumb Wink

Jargon from the job, apologies 
no problem,can i book the wife in for a manicure?Tongue
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dyniol53 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 January 2022 at 6:51pm
Originally posted by ladram ladram wrote:

Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

heuristics = rules of thumb Wink

Jargon from the job, apologies 
no problem,can i book the wife in for a manicure?Tongue

💅 da iawn
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dyniol53 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 January 2022 at 7:25pm
Originally posted by Rob o'r Bont Rob o'r Bont wrote:

Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

Since Boxing Day it’s clear that Wales’ case rates are higher than that of England. 


So Drakeford has chosen to impose different restriction to England, and has ended up with a higher rate of transmission. 

Going back to this graph for a minute, it's pretty clear why Drakeford had to impose the Boxing day restrictions. The Welsh cases were rising dramatically before Christmas and were in danger of going through the roof beyond Christmas.  You can see the Boxing day restrictions starting to take effect around Jan 2nd when case levels start to drop dramatically. Interestingly, that graph is showing England case levels still rising beyond Jan 2nd as Wales case levels are dropping.


The difference is Eng chose not to worry about case rates and transmission, whereas the Welsh government did and infections increased to a higher rate than that of England, in most regions. 


Englands rolling 7 day rate is declining too. But from a lower base, generally. 

Prof Tim Spector from the Zoe app talked about the “one last drink before lockdown” effect in regards to the England November lockdown in 2020. 

Something similar might have contributed to why Welsh cases rose sharper in between Xmas and NY before declining quicker from 2nd Jan as people had isolated/the restrictions kicked in on the 26th. 


Edited by dyniol53 - 10 January 2022 at 7:26pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Wil Chips Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 January 2022 at 12:11pm
Tianjin ( nr Beijing)…2 Omricon cases reported over the weekend.

14 million people to be tested in 24 hours.

Amazing mobilisation.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RR1972 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 January 2022 at 12:45pm
Had a pcr test due to a close contact. V efficient in and out in 5 mins result back two days later thankfully negative. Well done to the welsh nhs
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 January 2022 at 2:07pm
Originally posted by RR1972 RR1972 wrote:

Had a pcr test due to a close contact. V efficient in and out in 5 mins result back two days later thankfully negative. Well done to the welsh nhs

Before Xmas I sent one off and got literally nothing back (this in London) 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 January 2022 at 3:15pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote SA14 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 January 2022 at 3:56pm
Wales looking to ease restrictions week after next. 
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