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roy munster View Drop Down
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Points: 14652 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roy munster Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 January 2022 at 11:27pm
Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

Scotland re-open stadiums on Monday 


big decision, hard to know if its the right one or not...when will wales decide on their matches, time is short
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Next Friday. 
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Points: 46846 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Wil Chips Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 January 2022 at 5:59pm
Originally posted by Wil Chips Wil Chips wrote:

ICU bed occupancy In the UK is the only measure that works for me now.

Too early to say how this is going for sure, but as at now the numbers…

5 December-882

3 January -874

Total Uk — Wales alone is the same profile…

Next week or so is key.



So I’m still on this.

Sadly the last few days have seen higher death rates, but there’s been no increase in ICU bed occupancy anywhere since pre Omricon.

Just possibly the fact that so many people entered hospital and tested positive on admission ( due to the huge transmissibility of Omricon), but it wasn’t their primary ailment, that it’s cascading through to the death rate?

Just a thought.
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Points: 1660 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 January 2022 at 2:49pm
Yes that is largely the case Wil

One interesting thing about the data from a hospital system in the Gauteng province is three-quarters of the patients who were admitted in the first two weeks to hospitals in the area had no idea they had Covid. They went there for something else. That is an indication there weren’t symptoms. We could then think there are a lot of asymptomatic cases and it might cause milder disease



Edited by dyniol53 - 13 January 2022 at 2:59pm
https://twitter.com/exile_podcast?lang=en
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Points: 46846 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Wil Chips Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 January 2022 at 4:54pm
Such a strange one...

Patients admitted in to hospital with Covid in the UK per day went up rapidly from ( a steady) 850 or so a day on 5 December, to a peak of 2250 a day on 2 January...

In the same window patients in ICU went from 895 on 5 December, and actually dropped a little ( no spike in between) to 857 on 2 January (and continues to drop).


Edit…just seem Van Tam say 44% of people in hospital in the UK that tested positive for Covid on admission, were admitted for other primary ailments.

Edited by Wil Chips - 13 January 2022 at 5:54pm
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Rob o'r Bont View Drop Down
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Points: 13586 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rob o'r Bont Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 January 2022 at 10:21pm
dyniol's map on page 299 is still worth a look as it's being updated daily.  It's showing Wales' daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases per 100,000 as being the lowest in the UK today and the trajectory is still downwards.
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roy munster View Drop Down
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Points: 14652 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roy munster Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 January 2022 at 10:19am
drakeford suggesting if it continues the downward trajectory easing of lockdown will happen quickly, night clubs to reopen soon and crowds at 6 nations 
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dyniol53 View Drop Down
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Points: 1660 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 January 2022 at 10:39am
Originally posted by Rob o'r Bont Rob o'r Bont wrote:

dyniol's map on page 299 is still worth a look as it's being updated daily.  It's showing Wales' daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases per 100,000 as being the lowest in the UK today and the trajectory is still downwards.

Huzzah


Finally, the pandemic is over! 
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Lot less PCR tests being taken means less cases reported.  Not sure it's over.
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You are right.
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Points: 13586 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rob o'r Bont Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 January 2022 at 12:37pm
Not sure it's over either but it's going up and down faster than a Scarlets Rollercoaster season. Smile
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dyniol53 View Drop Down
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Originally posted by Wil Chips Wil Chips wrote:



Edit…just seem Van Tam say 44% of people in hospital in the UK that tested positive for Covid on admission, were admitted for other primary ailments.

There is a graph showing this on https://data.spectator.co.uk/category/national
https://twitter.com/exile_podcast?lang=en
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Points: 1660 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 January 2022 at 3:03pm
Originally posted by greypower1 greypower1 wrote:

Not sure it's over.

I say semi-jokingly. What I mean is: this wave is not going to threaten to overwhelm the health services.

There are new things to start considering:

Why are children aged 0-5 rising as a portion of hospitalisations during Omnicron? 

Previously we were “lucky” that Covid was primarily a major risk for the over 60s, a minor risk for 30-60s and a tiny tiny risk for under 30s. 

Is it possible that as the virus mutates it might become less virulent to the elderly but more virulent to children? What’s the plan for if that happens? (It might just be a case of children being less vaccinated). 

The other priority has to be dealing with morbidity, longer lasting health effects - treating people with long covid etc and how to improve that. 

Variant specific booster vaccines should also be crucial - how to develop them even faster.

But it’s pretty clear this omnicron wave was a scare that didn’t require restrictions and we need to resist the urge to bankrupt ourselves at the onset of every new variant just because the media loves panic
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Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

Originally posted by greypower1 greypower1 wrote:

Not sure it's over.

I say semi-jokingly. What I mean is: this wave is not going to threaten to overwhelm the health services.

There are new things to start considering:

Why are children aged 0-5 rising as a portion of hospitalisations during Omnicron? 

Previously we were “lucky” that Covid was primarily a major risk for the over 60s, a minor risk for 30-60s and a tiny tiny risk for under 30s. 

Is it possible that as the virus mutates it might become less virulent to the elderly but more virulent to children? What’s the plan for if that happens? (It might just be a case of children being less vaccinated). 

The other priority has to be dealing with morbidity, longer lasting health effects - treating people with long covid etc and how to improve that. 

Variant specific booster vaccines should also be crucial - how to develop them even faster.

But it’s pretty clear this omnicron wave was a scare that didn’t require restrictions and we need to resist the urge to bankrupt ourselves at the onset of every new variant just because the media loves panic

As I said earlier Dyniol on this issue Boris has played a blinder. Won't do him any good because he's been total b.ll...s on most other things!!!!!
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totallybiasedscarlet View Drop Down
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Points: 2537 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote totallybiasedscarlet Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 January 2022 at 5:48pm
https://nation.cymru/news/ons-stats-showing-lower-infections-in-wales-than-england-thoroughly-justified-our-restrictions-mark-drakeford-says/

"Boris played a blinder"? I don't agree with that. Lucky it wasn't worse is more like it.

Anyway, great news Welsh Govt now able to lift restrictions. They've done their job but I'm glad to see the back of them. Sooner this pandemic is over the better.
"If it's on, we back our skills and our confidence ... We've got some great players, play a good brand and we enjoy doing it." Ken Owens
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Points: 46846 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Wil Chips Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 January 2022 at 6:05pm
I think I should have added a 🤪
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