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roy munster View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roy munster Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 February 2021 at 5:08pm
For the first time in weeks, the daily new cases have risen today compared to last monday, whilst deaths have fallen
Last Tuesday we saw
  • 9,765 new cases and 230 new deaths 
  • Today we saw 10,641 new cases and 178 new deaths 
  • Schools reopened today, not 1 single politician suggested it was too early , not 1 single so called journalist asked is it too soon?
In a few weeks time when the cases rise, only then will 1 of these people bother to ask , was it too soon, why didnt we wait till after easter when nearly everyone would have been jabbed

Instead we lost our patience and rushed back prematurely. Prepare now for the r rate to rise and everyone will say oh how unavoidable this was and we had to go back to normal. Absolute nonsense, all we had to do was wait another 5 or 6 weeks and 20 million more jabs and things would have been nearer to normal for the long term.


ROYMOND MUNTER MBE (FOR SERVICES TO THE COMBOVER)
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Wil Chips View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Wil Chips Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 February 2021 at 5:36pm
Genuine question for Doc (again).

Case levels has always been the most commonly used barometer, is it now time to maybe switch to, say, hospital admissions as a better metric?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote greypower1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 February 2021 at 7:27pm
New case numbers depend entirely on the number of people tested.  The true figure of new cases is bound to be higher than the published figure so cannot be accurate.  Stating that the cases of covid have risen from last week can be taken with a pinch of salt.  The important figure is surely the number of deaths caused by covid and that figure has gone down which is good news.  Just my layman's take on it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dr_martinov Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 February 2021 at 8:56pm
Originally posted by Wil Chips Wil Chips wrote:

Genuine question for Doc (again).

Case levels has always been the most commonly used barometer, is it now time to maybe switch to, say, hospital admissions as a better metric?

Will be useful to keep track of both after vaccines introduced. Hospitalisations per case number can give how it impacts severity while total case number will be the result on immunity and transmissibility. 

Plus as new strains develop I think both will still be needed. Even though we're not going to eliminate it, the aim is to get levels of severe covid manageable - so I believe hospitalisations will be used as evidence of this in the near future - but then cases are easy to detect (and early stage) so will be monitor new strains spreading or spot gaps in coverage.

I look at flu, where the metric is hospitalisations, so suspect this will become the main metric eventually as we just come to live alongside coronavirus. Testing and vaccinations being the preventative actions.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Wil Chips Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 February 2021 at 7:57am
Cheers Doc.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote dr_martinov Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 February 2021 at 9:01am
Originally posted by Wil Chips Wil Chips wrote:

Cheers Doc.

No problems, hope of some use and those second two paragraphs are my opinion should have said sorry. Plus number of cases will also change as lockdowns eased/ended of course - I'd imagine we'll see a plateau or it go up again, especially when travel is allowed - but I think you're right in that a switch to hospitalisations or severe symptoms reported will happen as this will provide more direct evidence of the vaccines' efficacies. Plus bringing this down is the main challenge at the end of the day, although I know there are things like "long covid" which can be put into the severe symptom category. I am influenced by my own, potentially more pessimistic, opinion that we'll just have to deal with living with background coronavirus now and Prof. Whitty has also said this a few times so I think this is the Government's view as well.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote SA14 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 February 2021 at 1:01pm
I think it’s gonna be a case of something that’s gonna be with us a long time and maybe booster jabs to vulnerable people like the flu. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roy munster Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 February 2021 at 6:08pm
jabs a fair bit lower on weekends, last 2 days were  just141,000 and 192,000 respectively.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote greypower1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 February 2021 at 6:08pm
Anyone else concerned by the huge drop in the number of vaccines being administered in Wales. Now doing 5,000+ a day compared with a high of 24,000 a day two weeks ago.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ap sior Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 February 2021 at 6:20pm
Originally posted by greypower1 greypower1 wrote:

Anyone else concerned by the huge drop in the number of vaccines being administered in Wales. Now doing 5,000+ a day compared with a high of 24,000 a day two weeks ago.  

Supply issue I think. Second doses increasing though.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Wil Chips Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 February 2021 at 6:43am
The 2nd target of completing all Group 1-9 categories by 15 April ( first vaccinations) is brave.

Brave is good.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roy munster Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 February 2021 at 9:02am
How many is that Will? 

Also dont you think they should have gone for a few extra groups and variables in addition to simply age and healthcare workers? Certain jobs are way more at risk that others and they cant work from home, teachers, front line police, cabbies etc They meet 100s of people on a weekly basis up close and personal.... All thats on the list is care workers , healthcare workers and social workers. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ladram Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 February 2021 at 10:22am
Have a pip on youtube piers morgan matt hancock 23/02/2021 ,that man beggars belief.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote greypower1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 February 2021 at 11:10am
Originally posted by ladram ladram wrote:

Have a pip on youtube piers morgan matt hancock 23/02/2021 ,that man beggars belief.

I thought both of them beggar belief to be honest.  How do people develop such big egos?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Wil Chips Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 February 2021 at 11:28am
Originally posted by roy munster roy munster wrote:

How many is that Will? 

Also dont you think they should have gone for a few extra groups and variables in addition to simply age and healthcare workers? Certain jobs are way more at risk that others and they cant work from home, teachers, front line police, cabbies etc They meet 100s of people on a weekly basis up close and personal.... All thats on the list is care workers , healthcare workers and social workers. 


However much I agree with the sentiment (and I do) the facts presented do not show those sectors as being in highest risk.

The idea is those most at risk of losing their lives first, followed by those at highest risk of hospitalization ….As Van Tam just said-the primary driver is age, then age, then age.





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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote ladram Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 February 2021 at 12:08pm
Originally posted by greypower1 greypower1 wrote:

Originally posted by ladram ladram wrote:

Have a pip on youtube piers morgan matt hancock 23/02/2021 ,that man beggars belief.

I thought both of them beggar belief to be honest.  How do people develop such big egos?
say what you like about morgan he tries to hold them to account,the fact that he would not apologise even though he was found to have broken the law says a lot about the way this country is heading,and the fact that he exchanged messages with his pub landlord who then got a £30 million pound contract for a product he had no experience in is a complete piss take.
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