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Rob o'r Bont View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rob o'r Bont Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 September 2021 at 1:05pm
Rumours circulating of a further lockdown later in the year. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ap sior Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 September 2021 at 7:20pm
Seems to me that cases, deaths and hospital admissions are rising,
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dr_martinov Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 September 2021 at 12:04pm
Originally posted by ap sior ap sior wrote:

Seems to me that cases, deaths and hospital admissions are rising,

Yes, over 200 deaths reported yesterday. 

I know it's in light of a proposed tax increase to provide increased funds to the NHS but Javid's comments today aren't exactly what you want from a Health Secretary, saying that "the Conservatives are still the low tax party" (er.... don't you want the money for your own stretched NHS service?) and, more importantly, that he "has not even considered potential need for 'firebreak' lockdown in October". Well, I would have thought planning for several outcomes, including some bad situations that could require another lockdown, would be part of his job. Not doing so is just plain stupid in my view and it's senseless politicking to simply rule out options based on what, exactly? A manifesto promise to not have lockdowns? An inherent pro-economy libertarian mindset? That may be but you're the health secretary. It's pretty hard to trust that the guy is in the job to do the best for the NHS and overall health of the UK's population.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bills burr Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 September 2021 at 4:34pm
 The nhs is not run well, the trusts seem to suck billions out of the pot with useless middle management with zero medical experience or qualifications.....The system itself is too burocratic , too many delays , waste of resources etc But the main leak of money is bringing in private staff to cover shortages. Im NOT one of those people who think all nhs staff are great, theyre not. The system doesnt  allow whistleblowers enough anonymity to root out the staff members who either dont pull their weight or take endless sickies or worse still are incompetent. Politicians just suck up to the medical unions for votes, which makes things worse.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 September 2021 at 1:44pm
V interesting piece on Why there have been so few Covid deaths in Japan (Covid in Japan.)

Japan is a strange outlier and has been the whole time.

The government basically ignored the initial outbreak in Feb/March 2020 because they wanted the Olympics to go ahead. You think i'm joking but they refused to do testing for a while so that they could demonstrate low cases.

They did do some initial lockdowns, particularly on the island of Hokkaido, when it was obvious it was going to get cancelled/postponed. 

A year on they still have one of the worlds lowest death rates, a long with lots of countries in E Asia.

There's lots of speculation about the reasons.

Lower rates of obesity being one, compared to Western societies. But Japan is an ageing society and age is a larger predictor of hospitalisation and death than obesity.

Some sort of East Asian genetic immunity is another avenue explored, but there are large populations of ethnic-Japanese in the US and Brasil, so this would be easy to test. In the UK, he shows that people of Chinese ethnic background are no more or less likely to end up in hospital than ethnic-europeans. (There's not enough Japanese people here to get good data.) 

Perhaps the Japanese behaviourally more responsible, wearing masks, less hand shaking etc. That could be true but there are public mask mandates in lots of countries where large outbreaks occurred so it is unlikely a decisive factor. It was also notable how the Tokyo subway was jam packed through March-April 2020, unlike many western countries. 

Some immunity may have developed due to a prior epidemic that may have circulated in the E. Asian region. He says potentially but there's not much evidence for it.

Anyway, the piece is worth reading because COVID is very strange. 

He does note that many of these countries that did so well with the initial outbreak Covid-19 and Kent strain, are now struggling with the delta variant. In some respects the delta variant is worth thinking about as a completely different virus.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote aber-fan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 September 2021 at 3:06pm
Originally posted by bills burr bills burr wrote:

 The nhs is not run well, the trusts seem to suck billions out of the pot with useless middle management with zero medical experience or qualifications.....The system itself is too burocratic , too many delays , waste of resources etc But the main leak of money is bringing in private staff to cover shortages. Im NOT one of those people who think all nhs staff are great, theyre not. The system doesnt  allow whistleblowers enough anonymity to root out the staff members who either dont pull their weight or take endless sickies or worse still are incompetent. Politicians just suck up to the medical unions for votes, which makes things worse.


SO different to the Tory cronies in the private sector, who got paid £30 BILLION to supply PPE and made a total mess of it!


I'm sure they'd do a GREAT job of running the NHS - NOT!Dead
“You cannot reason a man out of what he never reasoned himself into.” (Jonathan Swift)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bills burr Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 September 2021 at 6:36pm
the vaccination push has collapsed due to the bizarre decision to stop contacting people for the jab and instead allowing people to arrange it themselves , bad bad move. numbers have disappeared from 600,000+ a day to a measly 100k a day , many nations are surpassing us now due to this mindless change of plans
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 September 2021 at 8:20pm
Originally posted by dr_martinov dr_martinov wrote:


England will be a very useful testing ground over the next few months so we'll see what happens. 

2 months on - how does the U.K. (English) governments decision to open up on 18th July look from where you’re sitting now Doc?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bills burr Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 September 2021 at 2:50am
2nd highest infections in the world for the last few weeks...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote dr_martinov Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 September 2021 at 9:18am
Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

Originally posted by dr_martinov dr_martinov wrote:


England will be a very useful testing ground over the next few months so we'll see what happens. 

2 months on - how does the U.K. (English) governments decision to open up on 18th July look from where you’re sitting now Doc?

Peak size in terms of cases per day is roughly similar as Nov-Feb, deaths in the current peak would appear to be 10%. Hospitalisations are down, looks to more like 25% or there abouts. So the impact of the vaccination is very clear. From this point of view, very useful to know. 

Nonetheless, we're comparing summer with winter here so not like-for-like. Boosters may be required to preserve this 10% as the best outcome. We also don't yet know if herd immunity can be achieved. So the other part of my answer is that Oct-Feb is going to be the really big test but I think we can keep deaths down to 30k or less per annum with vaccination, if we ignore something unpredictable such as emergence of a new strain that has crossed into another species and then crossed back. Unfortunately, this seems possible at some point.

As to whether these levels are justifiable compared to opening up later or having more restrictions in place, hard to really comment but you can see why they did it and the public mood has accepted this as a reasonable cost. Public fatigue from isolation and also familiarity with the existence of covid has been an enormous factor, as more are willing to take the risk to work, travel, meet others etc. Plus lack of reporting on serious cases, boredom of depressing stories of death numbers means people may well be more comfortable simply ignoring it more. I've also found new scientific knowledge on coronavirus, transmission, vaccines, new strands, to have dried up in the public domain, again perhaps because it isn't selling or people are bored of it, which has helped the decision to open up.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rob o'r Bont Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 September 2021 at 8:57am
This delta variant seems a bit different.  It doesn't stop at the school gates like the other variants did!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mrfwon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 September 2021 at 1:27pm
It's depressing not knowing what's going to happen going into the autumn and winter again. CryCryCry
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 September 2021 at 11:03pm
Originally posted by Mrfwon Mrfwon wrote:

It's depressing not knowing what's going to happen going into the autumn and winter again. CryCryCry

I don’t believe the fat lady is singing but when England opened up in July the feared 100k-200k cases a day never materialised.

Think about the logic of that, when Delta was rife, and restrictions were released, cases went down. 

I don’t think many people have a good explanation for that. 

I think everything Doc said above it true - it was summer, people are bored of hearing about covid and Schools have just started and people are going back - so maybe we’ll see an uptick like Scotland has - but even then 80% of the adult population has been vaccinated. 

We’ve fired every shot we have now. There’s not a lot we can do because no “circuit breaker” lockdown is gonna do anything to stop Delta, just look at the Aussies trying with their <100 cases a day. It’s too difficult.

Likewise restrictions like the rule of 6 aren’t gonna do much to stop Delta so there will be no point in implementing them.

Everyone’s got all the info they need to make personal choices now, and I think that’s all we have left - whether 300 cases a day or 300,000
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bills burr Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 September 2021 at 1:20am
I disagree, we could have done way better..Theres a reason we are number 1 or 2 in the world for daily infections...The messages for Boris and co are deliberately opaque and confusing...Even in many shops you still find staff without masks.  The collapse in vaccination uptake to below 100,000 a day is a huge factor , this is primarily amongst the 18 to 30 yr olds who are also the same group forming these massive crowds at money spinning events. 

Theyre unprotected and also more likely to pass it on. Those 2 factors together have contributed massively to pushing us back to world number 1/2 daily infections. Many nations have also leapt ahead of us on vaccinations per person too, the spanish, the french, the much maligned cubans, the danish, uruguay, israel, singapore, china, portugal etc 

Johnson failed yet again to capitalise on the brilliance of the UK scientists and chose to rush headlong back to massive events , to line the pockets of his paymasters...Just before the whole country was double jabbed. The man is a dangerous clown.

Meanwhile on planet BBC the collapse in vaccination uptake has gone unreported on BBC. Theyre yet again side tracked on nonsense. One of their main bizarre headlines today is asking if a lady extradited for terrorism 7 yrs ago should now be employed inside the UK to fight terror? Who even creates this mindless bbc new narrative? Dangerous nonsense.


Edited by bills burr - 16 September 2021 at 1:24am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote GPR - Rochester Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 September 2021 at 8:32am
Originally posted by bills burr bills burr wrote:

I disagree, we could have done way better..Theres a reason we are number 1 or 2 in the world for daily infections...The messages for Boris and co are deliberately opaque and confusing...Even in many shops you still find staff without masks.  The collapse in vaccination uptake to below 100,000 a day is a huge factor , this is primarily amongst the 18 to 30 yr olds who are also the same group forming these massive crowds at money spinning events. 

Theyre unprotected and also more likely to pass it on. Those 2 factors together have contributed massively to pushing us back to world number 1/2 daily infections. Many nations have also leapt ahead of us on vaccinations per person too, the spanish, the french, the much maligned cubans, the danish, uruguay, israel, singapore, china, portugal etc 

Johnson failed yet again to capitalise on the brilliance of the UK scientists and chose to rush headlong back to massive events , to line the pockets of his paymasters...Just before the whole country was double jabbed. The man is a dangerous clown.

Meanwhile on planet BBC the collapse in vaccination uptake has gone unreported on BBC. Theyre yet again side tracked on nonsense. One of their main bizarre headlines today is asking if a lady extradited for terrorism 7 yrs ago should now be employed inside the UK to fight terror? Who even creates this mindless bbc new narrative? Dangerous nonsense.

Much of what you say is spot on however with regard to mask wearing I cannot agree. If individuals now do not understand the message of the benefits then they never will. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rob o'r Bont Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 September 2021 at 8:50am
Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

Originally posted by Mrfwon Mrfwon wrote:

It's depressing not knowing what's going to happen going into the autumn and winter again. CryCryCry

I don’t believe the fat lady is singing but when England opened up in July the feared 100k-200k cases a day never materialised.

Think about the logic of that, when Delta was rife, and restrictions were released, cases went down. 

I don’t think many people have a good explanation for that. 

I think everything Doc said above it true - it was summer, people are bored of hearing about covid and Schools have just started and people are going back - so maybe we’ll see an uptick like Scotland has - but even then 80% of the adult population has been vaccinated. 

We’ve fired every shot we have now. There’s not a lot we can do because no “circuit breaker” lockdown is gonna do anything to stop Delta, just look at the Aussies trying with their <100 cases a day. It’s too difficult.

Likewise restrictions like the rule of 6 aren’t gonna do much to stop Delta so there will be no point in implementing them.

Everyone’s got all the info they need to make personal choices now, and I think that’s all we have left - whether 300 cases a day or 300,000
Problem is, not everyone can make personal choices.  I'm thinking of our teachers who have to work in close proximity to children without masks.  At the moment I have many friends in this situation and their seeing kids and staff dropping like flies.  And if one tests positive, the rest have to keep going - no self isolating at home now unless you have actually tested positive yourself.  
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