Scottish/Welsh Independence. |
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dyniol53
Veteran Joined: 08 April 2018 Location: Llundain Status: Offline Points: 1949 |
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Out of curiosity, if the Senedd were to lower the rate of tax on the higher tax bands, how much money could we save on salaries as a club? 40p tax rate for those earning over 50k per year. 45p tax rate for those earning over 150k per year. Say the WAG dropped that to 35p for anyone over 50k. How much of a dent would that make in our £8million salary expenses - around £400k? |
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RR1972
Veteran Joined: 27 April 2009 Status: Online Points: 18270 |
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The club wouldn’t save a penny. Players and other high earners here just take home more pay due to less stoppages for tax. Advocatting tax cuts for high earners will go against everything drakeford and welsh labour stand for, plaid will hammer them if they take that sort of action
Edited by RR1972 - 14 June 2021 at 1:53pm |
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dyniol53
Veteran Joined: 08 April 2018 Location: Llundain Status: Offline Points: 1949 |
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Yes if that was done overnight, but the club could pay players less while their take home pay would remain the same.
I.e. for arguments sake say Foxy is on 500k a year. Currently he takes home £275k per year. But under 35p tax he’d take home £325k instead. So the club just offer him a £450k salary instead and he takes home £290k. So the club saves £50k to spend on xyz and the player gets a marginal pay rise. Do that across a squad of 40 players and you’re saving a significant amount no?
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dyniol53
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I am fascinated that the two prominent independence movements YesCymru and the SNP are simultaneously being divided over the somewhat marginal issue of transphobia
Why do people think that is?
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Just transferring this from another thread:
I'm happy to admit that I'm purely a layman when it comes to politics and economics. The above is purely my opinion. I looked at the figures and came to my own conclusions. It doesn't offend me in the slightest if people don't agree but I hope it is at least food for thought. |
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Some links to Dr John Ball's articles that may be of interest to those following this thread:
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RR - in the interests of balance, you raised the issue of civil servants. Wales has about 34k civil servants. By population share we would expect 21k. So the independence movement does have a case to answer here. The reason for the extra numbers is that in the 80's the UK govt chose to site civil service departments in Wales as a strategy to shore up employment in the face of deindustrialisation. It can be interpreted as a helping hand. It can also be interpreted as a failure to grow the private sector in Wales. I've long considered it to be both.
The exact figure of civil servants an independent Wales would need is debateable but a population % figure of 21k seems reasonable. So what of the remainder? We can't take this in isolation. Independence won't be a matter of flicking a switch. It'd likely be a transition over a period of years. Afterwards we'd be in a situation where a tremendous amount of work would be ongoing in establishing the state. All those experienced civil servants would have a vital role to play in transition. We'd likely want to reduce the numbers only slowly and probably through natural wastage. Yes that would mean our economy will need to be less reliant on the public sector - the very thing that's long been said in most economic analyses. In the end what will count is a sovereign Welsh government's ability to stimulate economic and job growth. Which is one of the primary motivations most of the independence movement's supporters have.
Edited by totallybiasedscarlet - 17 November 2021 at 9:36pm |
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Out of interest for those following this thread, Tom Nairn's "The Break Up of Britain" is worth a read. His politics won't be to everyone's liking. At the time (early '80's) he was publically a Marxist (a position he's since changed I believe) and the book is a Marxist treatment of the matter. But it's worth looking beyond that. He analyses the causes of the emergence of many European nation states in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries - some background reading here: https://www.britannica.com/topic/nationalism. He comes to the conclusion that one of the primary drivers behind this phenomenon is the failure of the pre-existing larger kingdoms and empires that were reaching the end of their arc in history with respect to the economic conditions of peoples within their domains. He claims that the economic inequalities experienced by peoples at that time in light of the modernising forces of the industrial revolution and the political philosophies of the enlightenment motivated them to establish modern nation states.
I think there's a lot of sense in that analysis. He goes on to look at why the UK didn't go through the same process at that time. He says that the answer lies with the British Empire being in the ascendancy at the time and both Wales and Scotland as being beneficiaries of the state at that time. Fast forward to today and we have a Scotland that is diverging politically from England in significant ways with Brexit proving to be a seismic event in the process. We also have a Wales that is at the wrong end of a century long, linearly growing gap in GDP and GVA per capita with the rest of the UK. The UK ranks incredibly poorly on the GINI scale of inequality - to the point that statisticians put in squggily lines on their graph axes to fit UK data in! This is why Nairn comes to the conclusion that the UK is on course to break up - he holds the position that the UK is following the same trajectory albeit later. Interestingly, we often say that Northern England has a great deal in common with Wales. Indeed it does, suffering the same sort of deindustrialisation that we have. Are other posters aware that there is in fact a Northern Independence Party in existence now? They're in favour of establishing a state called Northumbria ... the main reason given is economic inequality. Edited by totallybiasedscarlet - 17 November 2021 at 10:06pm |
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I think that the Left having been politically traumatised by the electoral success of neoliberalism starting in the eighties largely abandoned the economic battleground over the last 40 years. What was taken up were various social causes insofar as they constituted achievable political goals. Unfortunately many people have strayed into moral absoluteism and the Left has divided itself along tribal lines. This lies at the heart of its' inelectability in England. Sadly what should be matters of sober debate have descended into self-righteous bun fights. Yes Cymru was beset by these matters because the independence movement is numerically dominated by the Left albeit there are liberal, centrist and (small c) conservatives involved also.
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roy munster
Veteran Joined: 30 August 2010 Status: Offline Points: 15682 |
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divide and conquer
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ROYMOND MUNTER MBE (FOR SERVICES TO THE COMBOVER)
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dyniol53
Veteran Joined: 08 April 2018 Location: Llundain Status: Offline Points: 1949 |
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I love this. I’m generally indie-skeptic (have posted about feeling British elsewhere on this thread) but I don’t reject the idea of welsh independence at all; but I generally suspect it’d leave Wales economically worse off - but you’ve given a serious thought to it here and considered the trade offs in a way I don’t often encounter.
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dyniol53
Veteran Joined: 08 April 2018 Location: Llundain Status: Offline Points: 1949 |
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Who’s doing the dividing?
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We're perfectly adept at doing it to ourselves without outside help
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I think most people aren't opposed on principle but it's the upheaval and uncertainty that's off-putting. I'm of the opinion that upheaval and uncertainty is coming regardless. Like all systems of government the UK will come to an end one day. It looks like that day may come sooner rather than later the way things have gone these last 5 years. It would be wise to start planning now. Plaid commissioned a report which was quite useful on the process. Welsh gov is currently consulting on a future constitution. Their preferred option is a Federal UK. Personally I agree with Plaid here. I favour a confederation of sovereign British states along the lines of Benelux. In that regard the UK is not a prerequisite for "Britishness".
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dyniol53
Veteran Joined: 08 April 2018 Location: Llundain Status: Offline Points: 1949 |
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I re-read your post. In the independence debates I often look for copy and paste arguements from the Brexit debate. Is there a single pro-Welsh independence arguement that couldn’t have been made for Brexit? In reading your post, I’d guess you’re pro-independence, but would you be pro independent wales outside of the EU, as Iceland are?
Edited by dyniol53 - 18 November 2021 at 10:52pm |
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SA14
Moderator Group Wwwww mince Joined: 15 August 2004 Location: Pemberton Status: Offline Points: 23830 |
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I’m sure a lot want independence just not to be associated with England. I can’t see it ever happening.
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