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dyniol53 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Home advantage
    Posted: 06 December 2021 at 4:15pm
There are a few studies out recently that demonstrate why Home advantage is such a big things

The main role of home advantage is the crowds influence on referees 


The COVID-19 pandemic forced almost all professional football matches worlwide to be played in empty stadiums. This large-scale natural experiment offers a unique opportunity to assess the impact of social pressure on decision making and behavior. In particular, I investigate the effect of the home crowd on match outcomes and referee decisions. Using a large dataset from 41 professional football leagues in 30 different countries, I find that the home advantage in match outcomes drops by around one half and that referee bias against away teams completely disappears following the lockdowns. My results therefore suggest that social pressure exerted by home crowds has an important effect on the behavior of referees and on game outcomes.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 December 2021 at 4:17pm
The Covid-19 pandemic has induced worldwide natural experiments on the effects of crowds. We exploit one of these experiments that took place over several countries in almost identical settings: professional football matches played behind closed doors within the 2019/20 league seasons. We find large and statistically significant effects on the number of yellow cards issued by referees. Without a crowd, fewer cards were awarded to the away teams, reducing home advantage. These results have implications for the influence of social pressure and crowds on the neutrality of decisions.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 December 2021 at 4:20pm
One of my theories for some time has been that home advantage in rugby is so pronounced because there are so many marginal calls. 

I’m a stadium like the principality where fans are so close to the pitch, you can see why the referees might be influenced and intimidated.

The effect size in those studies is also much larger than you’d expect, which means some sports teams should focus on making their atmosphere as intimidating as possible, possibly at the expense of ticket sales match day revenue, to ensure they’re more likely to get those 50/50 calls. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ladram Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 December 2021 at 4:35pm
Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

One of my theories for some time has been that home advantage in rugby is so pronounced because there are so many marginal calls. 

I’m a stadium like the principality where fans are so close to the pitch, you can see why the referees might be influenced and intimidated.

The effect size in those studies is also much larger than you’d expect, which means some sports teams should focus on making their atmosphere as intimidating as possible, possibly at the expense of ticket sales match day revenue, to ensure they’re more likely to get those 50/50 calls. 
munster obviously didn't read that study.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roy munster Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 December 2021 at 6:23pm
Its not only intimidation the home crowd draws huge attention to all the areas where the opposition have transgressed , in their myopic view lol
ROYMOND MUNTER MBE (FOR SERVICES TO THE COMBOVER)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 February 2022 at 5:15pm
Away wins with fans in stadiums, excluding Italy, since 2015 RWC

2016 (2/10)
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳£󠁴󠁿 9 - 15 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 
🇫🇷 21 - 31 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 

2017 (1/10)
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 16 - 21 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

2018 (2/10)
🇫🇷 13 - 15 🇮🇪 
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 15 - 24 🇮🇪 

2019 (4/10)
🇫🇷 19 - 24 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 
🇮🇪 20 - 32 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳£󠁴󠁿 13 - 22 🇮🇪 
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳£󠁴󠁿 11 - 18 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 

2020 (2/8)
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳£󠁴󠁿 6 - 13 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 22 - 27 🇫🇷 

2022 (1/6 so far…)
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳£󠁴󠁿 17 - 36 🇫🇷

That’s 12 ‘big’ away wins from 56 games since Scotland stopped being sh*t

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote aber-fan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 March 2022 at 9:40pm
Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

Away wins with fans in stadiums, excluding Italy, since 2015 RWC

2016 (2/10)
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳�£󠁴󠁿 9 - 15 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 
🇫🇷 21 - 31 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 

2017 (1/10)
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 16 - 21 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

2018 (2/10)
🇫🇷 13 - 15 🇮🇪 
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 15 - 24 🇮🇪 

2019 (4/10)
🇫🇷 19 - 24 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 
🇮🇪 20 - 32 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳�£󠁴󠁿 13 - 22 🇮🇪 
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳�£󠁴󠁿 11 - 18 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 

2020 (2/8)
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳�£󠁴󠁿 6 - 13 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 22 - 27 🇫🇷 

2022 (1/6 so far…)
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳�£󠁴󠁿 17 - 36 🇫🇷

That’s 12 ‘big’ away wins from 56 games since Scotland stopped being sh*t


Thanks - that proves how important home advantage is in the 6N.

I thought Ireland had a chance in Paris after their form in the Autumn - but no. 

(France are so good they'll probably beat Wales in Cardiff, unfortunately.)
“You cannot reason a man out of what he never reasoned himself into.” (Jonathan Swift)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 March 2022 at 1:08am
I think France and Ireland will both win away next weekend.

If they do the hype will be justified for both teams. 

It’s also worth noting France always do better than normal following a Lions year, and the team with the most Lions players out injured is us.

It’s one of those games where I genuinely have no idea in what facet of the game we might beat them..?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote GPR - Rochester Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 March 2022 at 7:36am
Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

I think France and Ireland will both win away next weekend.

If they do the hype will be justified for both teams. 

It’s also worth noting France always do better than normal following a Lions year, and the team with the most Lions players out injured is us.

It’s one of those games where I genuinely have no idea in what facet of the game we might beat them..?

I am pretty sure we will beat them in amount of turnovers conceded and lineouts lostConfused
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 March 2022 at 12:37pm
Originally posted by GPR - Rochester GPR - Rochester wrote:

I am pretty sure we will beat them in amount of turnovers conceded and lineouts lostConfused

LOLCryLOL
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