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Some Statistical Analysis on Attendance

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Topic: Some Statistical Analysis on Attendance
Posted By: joni_bach
Subject: Some Statistical Analysis on Attendance
Date Posted: 16 April 2018 at 7:35pm
Following the recent attendance v population statistics on here, I was inspired to create some of my own.

I was bored this weekend and decided to compile all the attendances of every Scarlets league and European game since regionalisation, and since the move to PYS, plus a handful of other variables to see if I could find which ones contribute the most to attendance figures. 

Fortunately, I have access to statistical software in Swansea University and was able to run the figures through the computer today and thought someone might find something interesting in them.

Feel free to comment, question, criticise or come up with any other suggestions of what I could do.

Dependent Variable: ATTENDANCE (Since Regionalisation)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/16/18   Time: 10:45
Sample: 1 126
Included observations: 126
HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed
        bandwidth = 5.0000)
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.   Interpretation
C 5126.638 558.2519 9.183378 0 5126 fans attend each game regardless of other variables
CHAMPIONS 1122.114 453.8765 2.472289 0.0149 1122 extra fans per game as a result of winning the league in the previous season
KOBH 1520.991 480.8412 3.163188 0.002 Kick off on a bank holiday increases attendance by 1521 (compared to Saturday night kick off)
KOFRI -656.811 425.1448 -1.54491 0.1251 Kick off on a Friday night decreases attendance by 657 (compared to Saturday night kickoff)
KOSATPM -280.0473 418.1731 -0.66969 0.5044 (Not significant) Kick off on a Saturday afternoon has no effect on attendance (compared to Saturday night kick off)
KOSUN -993.9712 548.5442 -1.81202 0.0726 Kick off on a Sunday decreases attendance by 994 (compared to Saturday night kick off)
MATCHEURO 1150.822 360.4109 3.193084 0.0018 1151 more fans attend a game if it is a European game 
MATCHOSP 5499.22 420.2337 13.0861 0 5499 more fans attend a game if it is against the Ospreys
MATCHPLAYOFF 3890.253 632.6721 6.148925 0 3890 more fans attend a game if it is a play-off
WALESINT 147.2699 45.83345 3.213153 0.0017 For every one Wales international playing, 147 extra fans attend
WINPC 22.48118 5.693068 3.948869 0.0001 For every 1 percent increase in home wins in the current season, 22 extra fans attend
R-squared 0.669861     Mean dependent var 8035.849
Adjusted R-squared 0.641154     S.D. dependent var 2595.147
S.E. of regression 1554.591     Akaike info criterion 17.61907
Sum squared resid 2.78E+08     Schwarz criterion 17.86668
Log likelihood -1099.001     Hannan-Quinn criter. 17.71966
F-statistic 23.33384     Durbin-Watson stat 1.732496
Prob(F-statistic) 0     Wald F-statistic 585.0318
Prob(Wald F-statistic) 0
Dependent Variable: ATTENDANCE (Since move to PYS)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/16/18   Time: 13:45
Sample: 1 134
Included observations: 134
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.   Interpretation
C 5339.383 695.1794 7.680583 0 5339 fans attend each game regardless of other variables
CHAMPIONS 1088.579 493.2035 2.20716 0.0292 1089 extra fans per game as a result of winning the league in the previous season
FREETV -66.68161 388.7985 -0.17151 0.8641 (Not Significant) No significant effect of free-to-air TV on match attendance
KOBH 1548.599 803.6636 1.926925 0.0563 Kick off on a bank holiday increases attendance by 1548 (compared to Saturday night kickoff)
KOFRI -578.4987 379.3459 -1.52499 0.1298 Kick off on a Friday night decreases attendance by 578 (compared to Saturday night kick off)
KOSATPM -146.3192 388.6566 -0.37647 0.7072 (Not Significant) Kick off on a Saturday afternoon has no significant affect on attendence compared to evening kick off
KOSUN -967.8955 497.677 -1.94483 0.0541 Kick off on a Sunday decreases attendance by 968 (compared to Saturday night kick off)
MATCHEURO 1034.29 439.4011 2.353862 0.0202 1034 more fans attend a game if it is a European game 
MATCHOSP 5461.954 660.5702 8.268544 0 5462 more fans attend a game if it is against the Ospreys
MATCHPLAYOFF 3879.203 1847.798 2.099365 0.0378 3879 more fans attend a game if it is a play-off
WALESINT 145.8733 57.02332 2.558134 0.0117 For every one Wales international playing, 145 extra fans attend
WINPC 20.26104 7.381616 2.744797 0.007 For every 1 percent increase in home wins in the current season, 20 extra fans attend
R-squared 0.649063     Mean dependent var 8009.567
Adjusted R-squared 0.617421     S.D. dependent var 2548.256
S.E. of regression 1576.171     Akaike info criterion 17.64867
Sum squared resid 3.03E+08     Schwarz criterion 17.90818
Log likelihood -1170.461     Hannan-Quinn criter. 17.75413
F-statistic 20.51281     Durbin-Watson stat 1.825468
Prob(F-statistic) 0



Replies:
Posted By: Wasp
Date Posted: 16 April 2018 at 8:00pm
Mind if I post these results on Twitter?

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We're still still here!


Posted By: joni_bach
Date Posted: 16 April 2018 at 8:02pm
Originally posted by Wasp Wasp wrote:

Mind if I post these results on Twitter?

Go ahead Thumbs Up


Posted By: Wasp
Date Posted: 16 April 2018 at 8:16pm
Originally posted by joni_bach joni_bach wrote:

Originally posted by Wasp Wasp wrote:

Mind if I post these results on Twitter?


Go ahead Thumbs Up
Ta
Done


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We're still still here!


Posted By: SA14
Date Posted: 16 April 2018 at 8:18pm


Posted By: minded
Date Posted: 16 April 2018 at 8:25pm
Excellent thread

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Posted By: Owen111
Date Posted: 16 April 2018 at 8:38pm
Nice work


Posted By: John
Date Posted: 16 April 2018 at 9:08pm
Why are there fewer observations since regionalisation than since the move to PyS given that the first is longer ago than the second?

So the move to PYS increased attendances inspite of it occuring at a time of relatively ordinary performances? Saturday is the best day of the weekend and in view of next year's shift to only pay tv, it seems that there will be no increase in attendance. Its good to be able to quantify some of these variables although some, like the number of home wins and the number of internationals are interconnected.

Thank you for your hard work....




Posted By: joni_bach
Date Posted: 16 April 2018 at 9:20pm
Originally posted by John John wrote:

Why are there fewer observations since regionalisation than since the move to PyS given that the first is longer ago than the second?

So the move to PYS increased attendances inspite of it occuring at a time of relatively ordinary performances? Saturday is the best day of the weekend and in view of next year's shift to only pay tv, it seems that there will be no increase in attendance. Its good to be able to quantify some of these variables although some, like the number of home wins and the number of internationals are interconnected.

Thank you for your hard work....



Good spot! I originally had 199 observations since regionalisation. I suspect that the software removed some observations because of heteroscedasticity in the data. Not sure how much that means to you! I'll look into it tomorrow. Thanks.


Posted By: Micro Duck
Date Posted: 17 April 2018 at 8:54am
Well done on putting so much work in. Very interesting.

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Posted By: SA14
Date Posted: 17 April 2018 at 9:08am
No effect on if a match is on TV? I find that hard to believe.


Posted By: Rob o'r Bont
Date Posted: 17 April 2018 at 9:32am
Not sure what the Bank Holiday stats are telling us.  These would be  the local derbies and so we would expect attendances to be up in any case.  Or does the software take account of this?

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Posted By: Rich (Bris)
Date Posted: 17 April 2018 at 9:32am
Eh is my phone having problems reading this? I can see nothing there to understand. Just lots of figures with nothing to say what they relate to and things like Durbin-Watson, someone called Hannah Quinn and KOBH etc. I'll open on pc to see if it makes sense on there


Posted By: Rob o'r Bont
Date Posted: 17 April 2018 at 10:09am
Originally posted by Rich (Bris) Rich (Bris) wrote:

Eh is my phone having problems reading this? I can see nothing there to understand. Just lots of figures with nothing to say what they relate to and things like Durbin-Watson, someone called Hannah Quinn and KOBH etc. I'll open on pc to see if it makes sense on there
It's not the easiest thing in the world to read Rich and I guess on a mobile phone it's virtually impossible. Smile

Having said that - it's well worth the effort to try and understand.


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In a world where you can be anything – Be Kind.


Posted By: reesytheexile
Date Posted: 17 April 2018 at 12:09pm
I will stick to the Interpretation aspect only !! Interesting ..

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Posted By: theieuan
Date Posted: 17 April 2018 at 12:17pm
SPSS does have its uses then! Smile


Posted By: Rich (Bris)
Date Posted: 17 April 2018 at 12:32pm
Thanks Rob
Yep just looking now on PC and much better (noggin me - although I turned the phone horizontally, I didn't scroll to the right enough to see all the interpretation). Good work Joni


Posted By: joni_bach
Date Posted: 17 April 2018 at 12:32pm
Originally posted by John John wrote:

Why are there fewer observations since regionalisation than since the move to PyS given that the first is longer ago than the second?

So the move to PYS increased attendances inspite of it occuring at a time of relatively ordinary performances? Saturday is the best day of the weekend and in view of next year's shift to only pay tv, it seems that there will be no increase in attendance. Its good to be able to quantify some of these variables although some, like the number of home wins and the number of internationals are interconnected.

Thank you for your hard work....



I've realised why there was missing data for the stats since regionalisation. The software dismissed the observations where I didn't have information about free-to-air TV. Here is the revised data for 2003/04 - present. Please note that when you look at the data over a longer time-period, it is more difficult to establish relationships. We're comparing different home grounds for a start. For example, this data shows that winning the domestic championship has no significant effect on next season's attendances. This is true for when we won in 2003/04 but not true for 2016/17. You can read into this what you want (i.e. fans more loyal in 2003/04, smaller ground capacity) but on average the "2003/04 effect" cancels out the "2016/17 effect". This is why if you want relevant statistics, it's probably best to look at the PYS data rather than the data since 2003/04.

Dependent Variable: ATTENDANCE
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/17/18   Time: 12:06
Sample: 1 198
Included observations: 197
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.   Interpretation
C 5363.654 534.3685 10.03737 0 5363 fans attend each game regardless of other variables
CHAMPIONS 411.3662 341.2282 1.205546 0.2295 (not significant) Being champions last season has no significant affect on attendance
KOBH 1630.371 705.3552 2.311418 0.0219 Kick off on a bank holiday increases attendance by 1630 (compared to Saturday night kick off)
KOFRI -338.9818 332.8834 -1.01832 0.3098 (not significant) Kick off on a Friday night has no significant difference to attendance
KOSATPM -363.15 332.7979 -1.0912 0.2766 (not significant) Kick off on a Saturday night has no significant difference (compared to Saturday night kick off)
KOSUN -1289.581 430.2235 -2.99747 0.0031 Kick off on a Sunday decreases attendance by 1290 (compared to Saturday night kick off)
MATCHEURO 1191.333 299.0743 3.983402 0.0001 1191 extra fans attend a game if it is a European game
MATCHOSP 5554.988 626.178 8.871261 0 5555 extra fans attend a game if it is against the Ospreys
MATCHPLAYOFF 3905.523 1199.374 3.256302 0.0013 3905 extra fans attend a game if it is a play-off
WALESINT 195.7043 51.51144 3.79924 0.0002 195 extra fans attend a game for every Welsh international playing
WINPC 12.29727 4.758578 2.584231 0.0105 For every 1% increase in home wins in the current season, 12 extra fans attend
R-squared 0.574593     Mean dependent var 7698.746
Adjusted R-squared 0.551722     S.D. dependent var 2370.594
S.E. of regression 1587.198     Akaike info criterion 17.63155
Sum squared resid 4.69E+08     Schwarz criterion 17.81487
Log likelihood -1725.707     Hannan-Quinn criter. 17.70576
F-statistic 25.12284     Durbin-Watson stat 1.660806
Prob(F-statistic) 0


Posted By: joni_bach
Date Posted: 17 April 2018 at 12:37pm
Originally posted by Rob o'r Bont Rob o'r Bont wrote:

Not sure what the Bank Holiday stats are telling us.  These would be  the local derbies and so we would expect attendances to be up in any case.  Or does the software take account of this?

You're right, you can't read into it and say "attendances are higher because it's a bank holiday", it's more likely that it's because they are local derbies against the Blues or Dragons. When I have time, I'm going to have a look to see if I can control for them too. It's just tricky because the more variables you include, the less robust the analysis is but I'll work on it. 


Posted By: John
Date Posted: 17 April 2018 at 12:39pm
Thanks for that. So now there is no significant difference in friday night attendances compared to saturday. And all the posts about that on here. All the moaning and groaning- much of which I did! But there is alot of interesting data here. Thank you for it.


Posted By: John
Date Posted: 17 April 2018 at 12:41pm
Originally posted by joni_bach joni_bach wrote:

Originally posted by Rob o'r Bont Rob o'r Bont wrote:

Not sure what the Bank Holiday stats are telling us.  These would be  the local derbies and so we would expect attendances to be up in any case.  Or does the software take account of this?

You're right, you can't read into it and say "attendances are higher because it's a bank holiday", it's more likely that it's because they are local derbies against the Blues or Dragons. When I have time, I'm going to have a look to see if I can control for them too. It's just tricky because the more variables you include, the less robust the analysis is but I'll work on it. 


But the fewer variables you take account of, the less robust the analysis is also!! Big smileWink


Posted By: joni_bach
Date Posted: 17 April 2018 at 1:54pm
Originally posted by John John wrote:

Thanks for that. So now there is no significant difference in friday night attendances compared to saturday. And all the posts about that on here. All the moaning and groaning- much of which I did! But there is alot of interesting data here. Thank you for it.

Well, if you look at the more relevant data from seasons at PYS, Friday night kick offs lose about 500-odd fans and Sunday kick-offs lose close to 1000 but it's the time on a Saturday (e.g. 3pm v 7.35) that makes no difference. Still, I think we're still allowed to have a moan about what time on a Saturday we'd prefer.


Posted By: dyniol53
Date Posted: 10 October 2018 at 3:22pm
Not sure when you last ran the numbers on this (great work btw)

Could be interesting to compare last year's attendances with this year's.

Pro14 - Opposition - Attendance - to nearest 500
2nd Sept 2017 - Southern K.  - 9,108 - 9k
23rd Sept 2017 - Edinburgh - 8,088 - 8k
29th Sept 2017 - Connacht - 7,693 - 7.5k
28th Oct 2017  - Cardiff Blues - 9,003 - 9k
3rd Nov 2017 - Benneton - 8,007 - 8k
26th Dec 2017  - Ospreys - 14,509 - 14.5k
5th Jan 2018  - Dragons - 9,347 - 9k
24th Feb 2018  - Ulster  - 6,941 - 7k
9th Mar 2018 - Leinster - 9,108 - 9k
7th April 2018  - Glasgow - 10,076 - 10k
5th May 2018 - Cheetahs QF - 7,105 - 7k

ECC - Opposition - Attendance - to nearest 500
20th Oct 2017  - Bath - 11,479 - 11.5k
9th Dec 2017 - Benneton - 6,856 - 7k
20th Jan 2018 - Toulon - 14,476 - 14.5k
30th Mar 2018  - La Rochelle - 15,373 - 15.5k


Pulled from http://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/rugby/rugby-news/every-welsh-rugby-regions-average-14617136" rel="nofollow - Wales Online Article. 
Avg Attendace 
2015-16: 7,290
2016-17: 6,809
2017-18: 9,256
Since '03: 7,612



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Posted By: dyniol53
Date Posted: 10 October 2018 at 3:45pm
Here's the attendances from http://www.pro14rugby.org/club/scarlets/" rel="nofollow - Pro14 website so far.

Pro14 - Opposition - Attendance - Last Year - Difference
8th Sept 2018  - Leinster   - 7,258 - 9,108 - -1,850
15th Sept 2018 - Benneton - 7,180 - 8,007 - -827
29th Sept 2018 - Southern K. - 7,529 - 9,108 - -1,849
6th Oct 2018  - Ospreys - 12,012 - 14,509 - -2,497
23rd Nov 2018 - Ulster - -
29th Dec 2018 - Cardiff Blues -
5th Jan 2019 - Dragons - -
24th Feb 2019 - Cheetahs - -
2nd Mar 2019 - Munster - - -
5th Apr 2019 - Edinburgh - - -
12th Apr 2019 - Zebre - - -

ECC - Opposition - Attendance - Last Year - Difference
13th Oct 2018 - Racing 92 - - -
7th Dec 2018 - Ulster - -
12th Jan 2019 - Leicester -

We shall see how we go against Racing this Sat!


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Posted By: roy munster
Date Posted: 10 October 2018 at 5:24pm
Blinking heck, the exact same game for game averages are way down , thats about 1750 per match? wth?

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Posted By: ScarletBear
Date Posted: 10 October 2018 at 5:47pm
Originally posted by roy munster roy munster wrote:

Blinking heck, the exact same game for game averages are way down , thats about 1750 per match? wth?

Somewhat explainable

Kings game was our first game as Champions
Ospreys game was over Christmas
Benetton close enough
Leinster is just down


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Posted By: dyniol53
Date Posted: 10 October 2018 at 6:03pm
The fact that Leinster was down almost 20% should be a surprise considering all the e-mail promotion I recieved and it was a saturday afternoon KO.

Last year's game was on a Friday night, horrible weather and during the international period without stars.

Seems strange that this year's didn't do so well.


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Posted By: 157cb
Date Posted: 10 October 2018 at 6:32pm
Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

The fact that Leinster was down almost 20% should be a surprise considering all the e-mail promotion I recieved and it was a saturday afternoon KO.

Last year's game was on a Friday night, horrible weather and during the international period without star
Seems strange that this year's didn't do so well.

  The Leinster game was a 19.35 ko on a Saturday night not great time  for anyone with young families and for supporters who travel from long distances .


Posted By: Wasp
Date Posted: 10 October 2018 at 7:49pm
It's clear and obvious that attendance is down this year. Slightly worrying I guess, that it's so hard to get Welsh people to buy in to attending rugby in the way that they do with football. 

Now I'm the first to bang the population drum when our detractors compare us to Irish clubs, so maybe we should be content with 7.5k crowds, but it's going to be hard to swallow a decline on last season when we performed so well in Europe. 

The Racing game is not selling particularly notably. A quick glance at the online system shows the corner blocks as almost entirely empty. (When S1, S12 and N27 fill up that's normally a very good sign)

Unhappy


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Posted By: joni_bach
Date Posted: 10 October 2018 at 7:53pm
Well my model shows that being the current champions increases attendance by 1122, so that explains about 64% of the 1750 per game drop in attendance. 

The prediction that not being on free-to-air tv won't have any effect on attendance seems to be holding up so far. 

Using the model, the predicted attendance on Saturday will be about 9580, which is made up of:

5126 regular fans
1151 extra fans because it's a European game
1470 extra fans if we have all possible Wales internationals playing
1833 extra fans because of our 5/6 win ratio



Posted By: Wasp
Date Posted: 10 October 2018 at 7:58pm
Originally posted by joni_bach joni_bach wrote:

Well my model shows that being the current champions increases attendance by 1122, so that explains about 64% of the 1750 per game drop in attendance. 

The prediction that not being on free-to-air tv won't have any effect on attendance seems to be holding up so far. 

Using the model, the predicted attendance on Saturday will be about 9580, which is made up of:

5126 regular fans
1151 extra fans because it's a European game
1470 extra fans if we have all possible Wales internationals playing
1833 extra fans because of our 5/6 win ratio

Really interesting stuff, thanks. Is there a simplistic answer to where the 5126 comes from?

9580 is looking ambitious to me, I'd be delighted to see that. The weather forecast can't be helping though I'm sure


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Posted By: M.M.
Date Posted: 10 October 2018 at 8:24pm
We have upwards of 5,000 season ticket holders this season. 


Posted By: Matthew Cardey
Date Posted: 10 October 2018 at 8:29pm
Think, with all the success Leinster had last year and the rivalry we are starting to create with them, we should be very disappointed with that crowd. Saturday is a massive game for us, biggest of the season so far, against world class players, and we are hoping to get 9k? We need to sell tickets in the east or west stand for a fiver, kids go for free? just get people through the gates. It creates a better atmosphere and makes people want to come back. Are we handing out flags for the game saturday? We need to run more promotions, maybe get an european season ticket for people wanting to come to the home champions cup games. Could there be a choir singing half time? could there be a band pitch side?


Posted By: Wasp
Date Posted: 10 October 2018 at 8:31pm
Originally posted by M.M. M.M. wrote:

We have upwards of 5,000 season ticket holders this season. 
Great stuff. Diolch Barrie.


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Posted By: ynysddurfc
Date Posted: 10 October 2018 at 8:42pm
Leinster game was days after the school year began. There was no half time tag and probably no school/junior club promotions, all resulting in significantly less in the west stand. Ospreys attendance was poor by comparison, and no doubt kick off time contributed to this. However, east stand which traditionally was for away support was empty, indicating a fall in visiting support


Posted By: Winston
Date Posted: 10 October 2018 at 9:34pm
I’m all for the promotion of selling seats cheap and kids free. Atmosphere as you say. Gloucester always did something similar. I know that some ST holders didn’t like it but I love the idea. Just want the stadium full of crazy Scarlets supporters.


Posted By: joni_bach
Date Posted: 10 October 2018 at 10:09pm
Originally posted by Wasp Wasp wrote:

Originally posted by joni_bach joni_bach wrote:

Well my model shows that being the current champions increases attendance by 1122, so that explains about 64% of the 1750 per game drop in attendance. 

The prediction that not being on free-to-air tv won't have any effect on attendance seems to be holding up so far. 

Using the model, the predicted attendance on Saturday will be about 9580, which is made up of:

5126 regular fans
1151 extra fans because it's a European game
1470 extra fans if we have all possible Wales internationals playing
1833 extra fans because of our 5/6 win ratio

Really interesting stuff, thanks. Is there a simplistic answer to where the 5126 comes from?

9580 is looking ambitious to me, I'd be delighted to see that. The weather forecast can't be helping though I'm sure

Yeah, basically when you run this type of model it produces one constant term and the rest are variables. So if we just use that constant and 3 variables above you get the equation:

Attendance = 5126 + (add 1151 if it's a European game) + (add 147 for every Wales player) + (add 22 fans for every point win percentage (currently 83.33%)) + error term.

The error basically means I probably haven't thought of every factor. You could add weather, other sporting events which take fans away, even average wages in the local area etc. 

The 10 Wales players may be a bit hopeful LOL so take 147 off the attendance for every one I'm out by.


Posted By: dyniol53
Date Posted: 10 October 2018 at 10:13pm
Originally posted by joni_bach joni_bach wrote:

Well my model shows that being the current champions increases attendance by 1122, so that explains about 64% of the 1750 per game drop in attendance. 


Good spot.

Originally posted by joni_bach joni_bach wrote:


Using the model, the predicted attendance on Saturday will be about 9580, which is made up of:

5126 regular fans
1151 extra fans because it's a European game
1470 extra fans if we have all possible Wales internationals playing
1833 extra fans because of our 5/6 win ratio


I'll buy you 9580 pints of Brains if you get that spot on Clap


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Posted By: Micro Duck
Date Posted: 11 October 2018 at 9:33am
I'm not sure why we keep on expecting the club to pay to generate an atmosphere.

Why can't the fans bring flags to the game?




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Posted By: Winston
Date Posted: 11 October 2018 at 1:28pm
It’s abouf economics isn’t it. You have a half empty stadium or you sell seats cheaply. The club wouldn’t lose


Posted By: aber-fan
Date Posted: 11 October 2018 at 2:02pm
Originally posted by Micro Duck Micro Duck wrote:

I'm not sure why we keep on expecting the club to pay to generate an atmosphere.

Why can't the fans bring flags to the game?



We got given free flags at a game last year... I still have mine, though at my age waving a flag looks a bit pathetic, TBH... I prefer to lose my voice, shouting!


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Posted By: supertaf
Date Posted: 11 October 2018 at 2:46pm
Originally posted by Matthew Cardey Matthew Cardey wrote:

Think, with all the success Leinster had last year and the rivalry we are starting to create with them, we should be very disappointed with that crowd. Saturday is a massive game for us, biggest of the season so far, against world class players, and we are hoping to get 9k? We need to sell tickets in the east or west stand for a fiver, kids go for free? just get people through the gates. It creates a better atmosphere and makes people want to come back. Are we handing out flags for the game saturday? We need to run more promotions, maybe get an european season ticket for people wanting to come to the home champions cup games. Could there be a choir singing half time? could there be a band pitch side?
 
Totally agree about us being happy with 9k. We were euro semi finalists last year and they were finalists, why on each would people not be crawling over each other for a ticket to such a massive game? I really don't understand why we would not get at least 11k.


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Posted By: Fscarlet
Date Posted: 11 October 2018 at 2:54pm
Originally posted by supertaf supertaf wrote:

Originally posted by Matthew Cardey Matthew Cardey wrote:

Think, with all the success Leinster had last year and the rivalry we are starting to create with them, we should be very disappointed with that crowd. Saturday is a massive game for us, biggest of the season so far, against world class players, and we are hoping to get 9k? We need to sell tickets in the east or west stand for a fiver, kids go for free? just get people through the gates. It creates a better atmosphere and makes people want to come back. Are we handing out flags for the game saturday? We need to run more promotions, maybe get an european season ticket for people wanting to come to the home champions cup games. Could there be a choir singing half time? could there be a band pitch side?
 
Totally agree about us being happy with 9k. We were euro semi finalists last year and they were finalists, why on each would people not be crawling over each other for a ticket to such a massive game? I really don't understand why we would not get at least 11k.


Local rugby leagues kick off at 14:30 so allowing for no delays I usually finish (as in showered & changed) at 16:30 which gives me an hour to get from whatever club I am playing at, usually in Pembrokeshire (though this week Tre-bloody-garon of all places), to get to PYS which isn't do able. I know for a fact that this applies for another 3 players on my team so there is 7/8 from my club alone that would love to attend but can't. Apply a similar logic around the area & that's a good number.

Secondly we had our biggest league home fixture last week. I always strive to attend this but again timings didn't allow due to playing commitments. A lot of families would have been there last week & would have spent circa £100 all in when you include tickets, food/drink/parking etc...


Posted By: aber-fan
Date Posted: 11 October 2018 at 3:41pm
The weather forecast is pretty awful for Friday and Saturday, which could reduce attendance - of course, they got that wrong last week, so who knows?

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Posted By: supertaf
Date Posted: 11 October 2018 at 3:45pm
Originally posted by Fscarlet Fscarlet wrote:

Originally posted by supertaf supertaf wrote:

Originally posted by Matthew Cardey Matthew Cardey wrote:

Think, with all the success Leinster had last year and the rivalry we are starting to create with them, we should be very disappointed with that crowd. Saturday is a massive game for us, biggest of the season so far, against world class players, and we are hoping to get 9k? We need to sell tickets in the east or west stand for a fiver, kids go for free? just get people through the gates. It creates a better atmosphere and makes people want to come back. Are we handing out flags for the game saturday? We need to run more promotions, maybe get an european season ticket for people wanting to come to the home champions cup games. Could there be a choir singing half time? could there be a band pitch side?
 
Totally agree about us being happy with 9k. We were euro semi finalists last year and they were finalists, why on each would people not be crawling over each other for a ticket to such a massive game? I really don't understand why we would not get at least 11k.


Local rugby leagues kick off at 14:30 so allowing for no delays I usually finish (as in showered & changed) at 16:30 which gives me an hour to get from whatever club I am playing at, usually in Pembrokeshire (though this week Tre-bloody-garon of all places), to get to PYS which isn't do able. I know for a fact that this applies for another 3 players on my team so there is 7/8 from my club alone that would love to attend but can't. Apply a similar logic around the area & that's a good number.

Secondly we had our biggest league home fixture last week. I always strive to attend this but again timings didn't allow due to playing commitments. A lot of families would have been there last week & would have spent circa £100 all in when you include tickets, food/drink/parking etc...
Not sure why people take my comments as personal attack but I'm sure we are not unique in having players as supporters. That would account for a few hundred maybe? A thousand? My point is, where are the non-playing fans? If you think we are only worthy of a 9k crowd for this game then fair enough, personally, my view, I'm not. I should mention that we have the exact same issue in the family as our lad plays in 1 west and he's gutted he cant be there as they are miles away on Saturday.


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Posted By: Fscarlet
Date Posted: 11 October 2018 at 3:51pm
Originally posted by supertaf supertaf wrote:

Not sure why people take my comments as personal attack but I'm sure we are not unique in having players as supporters. That would account for a few hundred maybe? A thousand? My point is, where are the non-playing fans? If you think we are only worthy of a 9k crowd for this game then fair enough, personally, my view, I'm not. I should mention that we have the exact same issue in the family as our lad plays in 1 west and he's gutted he cant be there as they are miles away on Saturday.


I didn't take it that way & I apologise if I have given the impression that that was the case. I was merely trying to show possible reasons as to why we may not have a great level of attendance. I don't know where the non-playing fans are.

Personally I think that this is a game which is worthy of at least 11k as they are one of the biggest sides in France but then again I guess you could ask the question how much French rugby does the average 'walk up' supporter see?

I'm gutted not to be coming up, though I have balanced that with going to Leicester next week!


Posted By: Wasp
Date Posted: 11 October 2018 at 6:43pm
I think we might just crack 10k, just from a quick look at the online seating plan

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Posted By: dyniol53
Date Posted: 12 October 2018 at 2:17am
Originally posted by joni_bach joni_bach wrote:

  • 5363 fans attend each game regardless of other variables
  • Being champions last season has no significant affect on attendance
  • Kick off on a Friday night has no significant difference to attendance
  • Kick off on a Saturday night has no significant difference (compared to Saturday night kick off)
  • Kick off on a Sunday decreases attendance by 1290 (compared to Saturday night kick off)
  • 1191 extra fans attend a game if it is a European game
  • 5555 extra fans attend a game if it is against the Ospreys
  • 3905 extra fans attend a game if it is a play-off
  • 195 extra fans attend a game for every Welsh international playing
  • For every 1% increase in home wins in the current season, 12 extra fans attend

Looking back at these:
Is there a difference between Saturday Lunchtimes, 3pm or 5:30pm or 7:30pm?
Did you say somewhere else that Friday decreases by about 500? Or was I dreaming?


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Posted By: roy munster
Date Posted: 12 October 2018 at 5:43am
Wonder if the lack of bbc promotion coverage is affecting us? ironic as iIalways thought making it harder to access on freeview would force the fans down the parc 

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Posted By: aber-fan
Date Posted: 12 October 2018 at 6:27am
Originally posted by roy munster roy munster wrote:

Wonder if the lack of bbc promotion coverage is affecting us? ironic as iIalways thought making it harder to access on freeview would force the fans down the parc 

I'm not sure, but was always of the opinion that Sky's OTT promotion of any sport it showed - including rugby - had a positive effect on crowds. Don't forget that Murdoch owns the Sun and Times titles as well, so those papers would always be bigging up Sky TV, no matter how good, bad or indifferent the product was. (Pretty distasteful and dishonest, but as far as crowds were concerned, I think it helped to build attendances in England at least.)

I can also say that I have far less interest in sports which aren't shown free to air than I used to - such as cricket and golf. I'm not so interested in those that I'd be willing to pay. Others, no doubt, feel like that about rugby.


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Posted By: dyniol53
Date Posted: 12 October 2018 at 12:11pm
Im pretty sure the removal from free-to-air TV has no effect on stadium attendances in the short term - but does seem have an impact on the sport in the Long term in terms of general public interest. (cricket and golf are prime examples above).

The point about Murdoch’s empire is a good one - I used to work on Sky Sports’ advertising and our whole media plan always included cross overs with the press, talk sport and Sky’s free-to-air channels which help with awareness.

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Posted By: dyniol53
Date Posted: 22 October 2018 at 1:15pm
Updating to include the Racing game - which was played during the storm so we might be able to understand the appx 1.5k drop below expected. (Attendance from http://www.epcrugby.com/report/racing-92-earn-victory-with-late-penalty-try" rel="nofollow - EPC website)

ECC - Opposition - Attendance - Last Year - Difference
13th Oct 2018 - Racing 92 - 8,064 - 11,479 (Bath) - -3,415
7th Dec 2018 - Ulster - -
12th Jan 2019 - Leicester -



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Posted By: saundersfootscarlets
Date Posted: 23 October 2018 at 10:39pm
Crowds have been a little disappointing this year , I wonder if , as previously commented in this topic that the lack of coverage on the BBC has resulted in less awareness from the public generally and any resultant floating supporters who may have come along having watched games , but still disappointing after our performances over the last few years.
The Bath attendance was possibly surprisingly high last year which may have provided an artificially high figure to compare the Racing attendance to , plus there were probably many more visiting fans from Bath than from Racing and as mentioned above the storm's probably prevented many from attending.
Hopefully attendances will pick up again as the season progresses.

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Posted By: scarletsrules
Date Posted: 24 October 2018 at 1:09pm
Originally posted by saundersfootscarlets saundersfootscarlets wrote:

Crowds have been a little disappointing this year , I wonder if , as previously commented in this topic that the lack of coverage on the BBC has resulted in less awareness from the public generally and any resultant floating supporters who may have come along having watched games , but still disappointing after our performances over the last few years.
The Bath attendance was possibly surprisingly high last year which may have provided an artificially high figure to compare the Racing attendance to , plus there were probably many more visiting fans from Bath than from Racing and as mentioned above the storm's probably prevented many from attending.
Hopefully attendances will pick up again as the season progresses.


There wont be many there for the Ulster league game on 23rd nov as that's the same day as the llanelli xmas carnival, last time we played a game the same day as the xmas carnival I think we were lucky to get 3k there although actual figure was announced as 6k I think that day, cant see why one or the other cant be changed , cant scarlets ask to play on the Sunday instead as the Sat wales play SA, or cant the carnival be the week before or week after


Posted By: dyniol53
Date Posted: 30 March 2019 at 5:45pm
52,000 sold for the QF at the Aviva in the ECC, out of curiosity I thought I'd look at how our attendances fared on last years campaign, thinking about what revenue we might miss out on if we don't manage qualification!

ECC
- Opposition - Attendance - Prev Year - Difference
13th Oct 2018 - Racing 92 - 8,064 - 11,479 (Bath) -3,415
7th Dec 2018 - Ulster - 7,421 - 6,856 (BEN) - +565
12th Jan 2019 - Leicester - 8,087 - 14,476 (TLN) - -6,389

QF
30th Mar 2019  - N/A - 0 - 15,373 (La R) - -15,373


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Posted By: dyniol53
Date Posted: 30 March 2019 at 6:10pm
Pro14 - Opposition - Attendance - Last Year - Difference
8th Sept 2018  - Leinster   - 7,258 - 9,108 -1,850
15th Sept 2018 - Benneton - 7,180 - 8,007 -827
29th Sept 2018 - Southern K. - 7,529 - 9,108 -1,849
6th Oct 2018  - Ospreys - 12,012 - 14,509 -2,497
23rd Nov 2018 - Ulster - 7,788 - 6,941 - +847
29th Dec 2018 - Cardiff Blues - 10,622 - 9,003 - +1,619
5th Jan 2019 - Dragons - 8,167 - 9,347 - -1,180
24th Feb 2019 - Cheetahs - 7,200 - 7,105 (QF) - +95 
2nd Mar 2019 - Munster - 8,032 - 7,693 (Con) - +339
5th Apr 2019 - Edinburgh - - 8,088 -
12th Apr 2019 - Zebre - - -


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Posted By: roy munster
Date Posted: 30 March 2019 at 6:22pm
down approx 5k

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Posted By: dyniol53
Date Posted: 30 March 2019 at 6:33pm
Not as bad as you might have thought, only a decline of 590 per game & considering we were champions the year previous.

If we can better last year's Edinburgh attendance that'd be good, such a crucial game.


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Posted By: M.M.
Date Posted: 30 March 2019 at 7:15pm
We sold over 5,000 season tickets last season. We need to retain as much of those as is possible.




Posted By: roy munster
Date Posted: 30 March 2019 at 7:50pm
8500 average is it?


Posted By: dyniol53
Date Posted: 30 March 2019 at 7:56pm
Yes, 8,420

Last year P14 was was 8,890


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Posted By: roy munster
Date Posted: 31 March 2019 at 6:38am
Not too bad considering results

IF we go for a judgement day 2 this would be probably over 10,000 and an extra £150,000 thats the annual salary for a tidy player made in one afternoon


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Posted By: supertaf
Date Posted: 31 March 2019 at 4:03pm
Hang on though, this is where stats tell the tale that the writer wants. The reason why the Ospreys game was less was the KO day/time. It's not comparable and that may also apply to other games. Cant argue crowds are down but sometimes its for a good reason sadly.

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Posted By: joni_bach
Date Posted: 31 March 2019 at 6:30pm
Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

Not as bad as you might have thought, only a decline of 590 per game & considering we were champions the year previous.

If we can better last year's Edinburgh attendance that'd be good, such a crucial game.

The model at the start of the thread equates roughly a 25% decrease in win percentage with a loss of 550 fans per game so that seems to make sense.


Posted By: dyniol53
Date Posted: 31 March 2019 at 9:32pm
Ha not far off at all, however that hasn't taken into account ECC drop offs! 

(Unless that 25% decrease just in Pro14 wins?) 

So the basic inputs for increasing attendance are...

5339 - "base rate" fans attend regardless of other variables
5499 - More fans attend a game if it is against the Ospreys
1521 - Bank holiday increase (compared to Saturday night kick off)
1151 - More fans attend a European Champions Cup fixture
1122 - Extra fans per game due to winning the league in the previous season
147 - Extra fans per Welsh international playing
22 - Extra fans For every 1 percent increase in home wins in the current season

So for surefire max attendance would ideally be a ECC game against the Ospreys on a bank holiday with all our Welsh internationals playing having won most of our games that season and had been champs the season previous!


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Posted By: Rob o'r Bont
Date Posted: 31 March 2019 at 9:51pm
Originally posted by supertaf supertaf wrote:

Hang on though, this is where stats tell the tale that the writer wants. The reason why the Ospreys game was less was the KO day/time. It's not comparable and that may also apply to other games. Cant argue crowds are down but sometimes its for a good reason sadly.
Yes, good points.

I would add that the Premiership Sports deal means that fans can watch every game (of every region) from the comfort of their own sofa.  Some may calculate that it's better value for money in abandoning live games and spending their money on Prem Sport subscription.



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Posted By: supertaf
Date Posted: 01 April 2019 at 9:59am
Originally posted by Rob o'r Bont Rob o'r Bont wrote:

Originally posted by supertaf supertaf wrote:

Hang on though, this is where stats tell the tale that the writer wants. The reason why the Ospreys game was less was the KO day/time. It's not comparable and that may also apply to other games. Cant argue crowds are down but sometimes its for a good reason sadly.
Yes, good points.

I would add that the Premiership Sports deal means that fans can watch every game (of every region) from the comfort of their own sofa.  Some may calculate that it's better value for money in abandoning live games and spending their money on Prem Sport subscription.

Agree, maybe it's backfired as I initially thought it would drive more fans to home games. That said, if they keep using their only HD channel for football instead, there will be a riot soon.


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Posted By: Rich (Bris)
Date Posted: 01 April 2019 at 10:05am
Most of our home games were in one TV channel or another last season anyway weren't they?


Posted By: Gwyn Morgan
Date Posted: 01 April 2019 at 12:37pm
I think it has been a helpful demonstration that moving all your matches behind a paywall does not drive a lot of extra attendance.
Suggests that if you want to make ST holders out of armchair fans there is more to it than taking the matches off the TV.


Posted By: roy munster
Date Posted: 01 April 2019 at 2:49pm
20 years ago 2 men and his dog went to watch darts....now thanks to sky....darts sells out all across europe in front of packed crowds from 5000 to 10000 week in week out....how? well sky seem to know how...the promotion the packaging the branding the razzmatazz...we just need to hustle more....people hustle to get new customers all the time....we seem a trifle complacent in this area

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Posted By: supertaf
Date Posted: 01 April 2019 at 3:26pm
Originally posted by roy munster roy munster wrote:

20 years ago 2 men and his dog went to watch darts....now thanks to sky....darts sells out all across europe in front of packed crowds from 5000 to 10000 week in week out....how? well sky seem to know how...the promotion the packaging the branding the razzmatazz...we just need to hustle more....people hustle to get new customers all the time....we seem a trifle complacent in this area
Correct and yet people lambast Sky all the time for their charges but without them, much of our professional sport wouldn't exist.


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Posted By: dyniol53
Date Posted: 02 April 2019 at 4:12pm
Originally posted by roy munster roy munster wrote:

20 years ago 2 men and his dog went to watch darts....now thanks to sky....darts sells out all across europe in front of packed crowds from 5000 to 10000 week in week out....how? well sky seem to know how...the promotion the packaging the branding the razzmatazz...we just need to hustle more....people hustle to get new customers all the time....we seem a trifle complacent in this area

Yes it's about creating a great experience. Complacent is probably the correct word too.

Handing out some flags and piping in music through the speakers is "something everyone does" but Scarlets should or could be thinking about how they can make the Parc a unique atmosphere.

(Doesn't have to be like the darts obviously)


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Posted By: roy munster
Date Posted: 02 April 2019 at 4:16pm
and free bus trips

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ROYMOND MUNTER MBE (FOR SERVICES TO THE COMBOVER)


Posted By: dyniol53
Date Posted: 19 April 2019 at 8:58am
Pro14 - Opposition - Attendance - Last Year - Difference
8th Sept 2018  - Leinster   - 7,258 - 9,108 -1,850
15th Sept 2018 - Benneton - 7,180 - 8,007 -827
29th Sept 2018 - Southern K. - 7,529 - 9,108 -1,849
6th Oct 2018  - Ospreys - 12,012 - 14,509 -2,497
23rd Nov 2018 - Ulster - 7,788 - 6,941 - +847
29th Dec 2018 - Cardiff Blues - 10,622 - 9,003 - +1,619
5th Jan 2019 - Dragons - 8,167 - 9,347 -1,180
24th Feb 2019 - Cheetahs - 7,200 - 7,105 (QF) - +95 
2nd Mar 2019 - Munster - 8,032 7,693 (Con) +339
6th Apr 2019 - Edinburgh - 8,733 - 8,088 - +645
13th Apr 2019 - Zebre - 8,356 - 10,076 (Gla) - -1,720 


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Posted By: dyniol53
Date Posted: 19 April 2019 at 9:00am
ECC - Opposition - Attendance - Last Year - Difference
13th Oct 2018 - Racing 92 - 8,064 - 11,479 (Bath) -3,415
7th Dec 2018 - Ulster - 7,421 - 6,856 (BEN) - +565
12th Jan 2019 - Leicester - 8,087 - 14,476 (TLN) -6,389

QF
30th Mar 2019  - N/A - 0 - 15,373 (La R) - -15,373


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Posted By: dyniol53
Date Posted: 19 April 2019 at 9:28am
Pro14
Attendance this season
Total:  92,877
Average: 8,443

Last season
Total:  98,985
Average: 8,891

Net (this year - last)
Total:  -6,108
Average: -555

(Corrected from previous edit, as I had thought Zebre was an extra home game but I'd missed out Glasgow home from previous season)


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Posted By: dyniol53
Date Posted: 19 April 2019 at 9:56am
ECC
Attendance this season
Total:  23,572
Average: 7,857

Last season
Total:  48,184
Average: 12,046

Net (this year - last)
Total:  -24,612
Average: -4,189 


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Posted By: minded
Date Posted: 19 April 2019 at 10:19am
Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

Pro14
Attendance this season
Total:  92,877
Average: 8,443

Last season
Total:  88,909
Average: 8,891

Net (this year - last)
Total:  3,968
Average: -448 

(Total rises because Zebre was extra home game, but average per game down marginally)
Surely it was the same amount of home games because we played Cheetahs home in P14 QF?

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Posted By: dyniol53
Date Posted: 19 April 2019 at 10:31am
Season
Attendance this season
Total:  116,449
Average: 8,318
% Cap: 56%

Last season
Total:  147,169
Average: 9,811
% Cap: 66%

Net (this year - last)
Total:  -30,720
Average: -1,493 
% Cap: -10%


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Posted By: Wil Chips
Date Posted: 19 April 2019 at 10:34am
Top stats. Thanks.


Posted By: dyniol53
Date Posted: 19 April 2019 at 10:41am
Originally posted by minded minded wrote:


Surely it was the same amount of home games because we played Cheetahs home in P14 QF?

Amended, Diolch!


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Posted By: joni_bach
Date Posted: 19 April 2019 at 11:26am
Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

Ha not far off at all, however that hasn't taken into account ECC drop offs! 

(Unless that 25% decrease just in Pro14 wins?) 

So the basic inputs for increasing attendance are...

5339 - "base rate" fans attend regardless of other variables
5499 - More fans attend a game if it is against the Ospreys
1521 - Bank holiday increase (compared to Saturday night kick off)
1151 - More fans attend a European Champions Cup fixture
1122 - Extra fans per game due to winning the league in the previous season
147 - Extra fans per Welsh international playing
22 - Extra fans For every 1 percent increase in home wins in the current season

So for surefire max attendance would ideally be a ECC game against the Ospreys on a bank holiday with all our Welsh internationals playing having won most of our games that season and had been champs the season previous!

Late reply sorry, but yes, this would theoretically result in an attendance of 17327


Posted By: dyniol53
Date Posted: 19 April 2019 at 11:32am
Wonder whether the Parc could put temporary seating to host 17,500 if such an event came!

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Posted By: dyniol53
Date Posted: 08 May 2019 at 11:39am
Anyone following this thread might also be interested in filling out this survey, originally posted on Speedy's post "Our Vision as a Rugby Club"

http://findaplayer.typeform.com/to/RJXSH5" rel="nofollow - https://findaplayer.typeform.com/to/RJXSH5


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Posted By: dyniol53
Date Posted: 03 October 2021 at 11:52am
Originally posted by joni_bach joni_bach wrote:

I've realised why there was missing data for the stats since regionalisation. The software dismissed the observations where I didn't have information about free-to-air TV. Here is the revised data for 2003/04 - present. Please note that when you look at the data over a longer time-period, it is more difficult to establish relationships. We're comparing different home grounds for a start. For example, this data shows that winning the domestic championship has no significant effect on next season's attendances. This is true for when we won in 2003/04 but not true for 2016/17. You can read into this what you want (i.e. fans more loyal in 2003/04, smaller ground capacity) but on average the "2003/04 effect" cancels out the "2016/17 effect". This is why if you want relevant statistics, it's probably best to look at the PYS data rather than the data since 2003/04.

Dependent Variable: ATTENDANCE
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/17/18   Time: 12:06
Sample: 1 198
Included observations: 197
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.   Interpretation
C 5363.654 tel:534.3685" rel="nofollow - 534.3685 10.03737 0 5363 fans attend each game regardless of other variables
CHAMPIONS tel:411.3662" rel="nofollow - 411.3662 tel:341.2282" rel="nofollow - 341.2282 1.205546 0.2295 (not significant) Being champions last season has no significant affect on attendance
KOBH 1630.371 tel:705.3552" rel="nofollow - 705.3552 2.311418 0.0219 Kick off on a bank holiday increases attendance by 1630 (compared to Saturday night kick off)
KOFRI -338.9818 tel:332.8834" rel="nofollow - 332.8834 -1.01832 0.3098 (not significant) Kick off on a Friday night has no significant difference to attendance
KOSATPM -363.15 tel:332.7979" rel="nofollow - 332.7979 -1.0912 0.2766 (not significant) Kick off on a Saturday night has no significant difference (compared to Saturday night kick off)
KOSUN -1289.581 tel:430.2235" rel="nofollow - 430.2235 -2.99747 0.0031 Kick off on a Sunday decreases attendance by 1290 (compared to Saturday night kick off)
MATCHEURO 1191.333 tel:299.0743" rel="nofollow - 299.0743 3.983402 0.0001 1191 extra fans attend a game if it is a European game
MATCHOSP 5554.988 626.178 8.871261 0 5555 extra fans attend a game if it is against the Ospreys
MATCHPLAYOFF 3905.523 1199.374 3.256302 0.0013 3905 extra fans attend a game if it is a play-off
WALESINT tel:195.7043" rel="nofollow - 195.7043 51.51144 3.79924 0.0002 195 extra fans attend a game for every Welsh international playing
WINPC 12.29727 4.758578 2.584231 0.0105 For every 1% increase in home wins in the current season, 12 extra fans attend
R-squared 0.574593     Mean dependent var 7698.746
Adjusted R-squared 0.551722     S.D. dependent var 2370.594
S.E. of regression 1587.198     Akaike info criterion 17.63155
Sum squared resid 4.69E+08     Schwarz criterion 17.81487
Log likelihood -1725.707     Hannan-Quinn criter. 17.70576
F-statistic 25.12284     Durbin-Watson stat 1.660806
Prob(F-statistic) 0

Simon Thomas on Twitter talking about the pitiful Ospreys v Cardiff attendance, 5,767.

Says he thinks it’s because of a Sat 7:35 KO time.

I wish people who are paid to do sports journalism could actually be bothered to work out whether such things are true before opining. 

Grateful to the likes of Joni Bach who have the skill and interest in sharing actual analysis of thing like the above. 


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Posted By: PritchyTheScarlet
Date Posted: 03 October 2021 at 2:10pm
Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

Originally posted by joni_bach joni_bach wrote:

I've realised why there was missing data for the stats since regionalisation. The software dismissed the observations where I didn't have information about free-to-air TV. Here is the revised data for 2003/04 - present. Please note that when you look at the data over a longer time-period, it is more difficult to establish relationships. We're comparing different home grounds for a start. For example, this data shows that winning the domestic championship has no significant effect on next season's attendances. This is true for when we won in 2003/04 but not true for 2016/17. You can read into this what you want (i.e. fans more loyal in 2003/04, smaller ground capacity) but on average the "2003/04 effect" cancels out the "2016/17 effect". This is why if you want relevant statistics, it's probably best to look at the PYS data rather than the data since 2003/04.

Dependent Variable: ATTENDANCE
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/17/18   Time: 12:06
Sample: 1 198
Included observations: 197
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.   Interpretation
C 5363.654 tel:534.3685" rel="nofollow - 534.3685 10.03737 0 5363 fans attend each game regardless of other variables
CHAMPIONS tel:411.3662" rel="nofollow - 411.3662 tel:341.2282" rel="nofollow - 341.2282 1.205546 0.2295 (not significant) Being champions last season has no significant affect on attendance
KOBH 1630.371 tel:705.3552" rel="nofollow - 705.3552 2.311418 0.0219 Kick off on a bank holiday increases attendance by 1630 (compared to Saturday night kick off)
KOFRI -338.9818 tel:332.8834" rel="nofollow - 332.8834 -1.01832 0.3098 (not significant) Kick off on a Friday night has no significant difference to attendance
KOSATPM -363.15 tel:332.7979" rel="nofollow - 332.7979 -1.0912 0.2766 (not significant) Kick off on a Saturday night has no significant difference (compared to Saturday night kick off)
KOSUN -1289.581 tel:430.2235" rel="nofollow - 430.2235 -2.99747 0.0031 Kick off on a Sunday decreases attendance by 1290 (compared to Saturday night kick off)
MATCHEURO 1191.333 tel:299.0743" rel="nofollow - 299.0743 3.983402 0.0001 1191 extra fans attend a game if it is a European game
MATCHOSP 5554.988 626.178 8.871261 0 5555 extra fans attend a game if it is against the Ospreys
MATCHPLAYOFF 3905.523 1199.374 3.256302 0.0013 3905 extra fans attend a game if it is a play-off
WALESINT tel:195.7043" rel="nofollow - 195.7043 51.51144 3.79924 0.0002 195 extra fans attend a game for every Welsh international playing
WINPC 12.29727 4.758578 2.584231 0.0105 For every 1% increase in home wins in the current season, 12 extra fans attend
R-squared 0.574593     Mean dependent var 7698.746
Adjusted R-squared 0.551722     S.D. dependent var 2370.594
S.E. of regression 1587.198     Akaike info criterion 17.63155
Sum squared resid 4.69E+08     Schwarz criterion 17.81487
Log likelihood -1725.707     Hannan-Quinn criter. 17.70576
F-statistic 25.12284     Durbin-Watson stat 1.660806
Prob(F-statistic) 0

Simon Thomas on Twitter talking about the pitiful Ospreys v Cardiff attendance, 5,767.

Says he thinks it’s because of a Sat 7:35 KO time.

I wish people who are paid to do sports journalism could actually be bothered to work out whether such things are true before opining. 

Grateful to the likes of Joni Bach who have the skill and interest in sharing actual analysis of thing like the above. 

There have been surveys conducted which indicate that Saturday 7.35 is a pretty bad kick-off time for attracting fans. The general feedback I see from supporters would suggest the same thing too. It's certainly not a KO time I'm a huge fan of, but understand that it needs to fit around broadcast schedules etc.


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Posted By: tannerbankboy
Date Posted: 03 October 2021 at 2:46pm
I'd have thought 7.35 at the weekend is fine for attracting younger fans, a late night yes, but no school the next day.  Although it's not so good for those travelling an hour or more to the game.  Having said that there will always be a lot of evening games due to TV schedules.


Posted By: dyniol53
Date Posted: 03 October 2021 at 3:17pm
Yeah I think the stated preference of fans is Sat 3-5pm KOs. But the stats above didn’t seem to display much difference between KO times and attendance, for the Scarlets.

Initially they seemed to show Friday and Sundays were worse ,-500 and -900 respectively, but then when Joni ran another set it said Fri had no-significant effect whereas Sunday had larger effects -1200.

There’s obviously a bit a noise/unreliability/confounding effects in the data but I’d prefer it if professional pundits/journos actually bothered looking into things like this before dishing out their random opinions - leave that to us fans!!


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Posted By: dyniol53
Date Posted: 03 October 2021 at 3:20pm
Originally posted by tannerbankboy tannerbankboy wrote:

I'd have thought 7.35 at the weekend is fine for attracting younger fans, a late night yes, but no school the next day.  Although it's not so good for those travelling an hour or more to the game.  Having said that there will always be a lot of evening games due to TV schedules.

I understand the thinking “7:35pm KO is bad for families with young kids” etc but then 7:35 might also attract a different crowd, say young adults, which counteracts that. 

That’s why it’s important to actually look at the data - it’s all public!

There’s lots of negativity about attendances in Wales but the English Prem teams are disappointed with their turnouts so far this season too so its useful to know before everyone starts writing off the club game in Wales as a non-event 


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Posted By: hartson11
Date Posted: 04 October 2021 at 10:41am
Twitter has been awful this weekend (if you’re not on it, don’t do it to yourself).

Everyone from Lee Jarvis to the Valleys Rugby brigade poking fun at the Scarlets and Ospreys attendances, and ex journos like Delme Parfitt saying he turned off the Scarlets game as it was so boring.

Really is tiresome seeing so many knock the pro game in Wales, yes I realise the competition is far from ideal, yes I understand we all want an Anglo Welsh league, but it is what it is and I wish people would get behind our teams.

I won’t knock those who stay away due to the pandemic or have money worries etc, that’s totally understandable, but some of the excuses I’ve read about not going to games lead me to believe that in general, Welsh rugby fans are just complete tight arses who want something for nothing. Saw one guy moaning it was too expensive to take his kids to an Ospreys game…….their season tickets are £25 for under 25’s, so he clearly hadn’t even looked at the ticket prices.

I really do fear for the Welsh game. Attitudes need to change towards our pro teams.


Posted By: scarletnut
Date Posted: 04 October 2021 at 11:25am
Originally posted by hartson11 hartson11 wrote:

Twitter has been awful this weekend (if you’re not on it, don’t do it to yourself).

Everyone from Lee Jarvis to the Valleys Rugby brigade poking fun at the Scarlets and Ospreys attendances, and ex journos like Delme Parfitt saying he turned off the Scarlets game as it was so boring.

Really is tiresome seeing so many knock the pro game in Wales, yes I realise the competition is far from ideal, yes I understand we all want an Anglo Welsh league, but it is what it is and I wish people would get behind our teams.

I won’t knock those who stay away due to the pandemic or have money worries etc, that’s totally understandable, but some of the excuses I’ve read about not going to games lead me to believe that in general, Welsh rugby fans are just complete tight arses who want something for nothing. Saw one guy moaning it was too expensive to take his kids to an Ospreys game…….their season tickets are £25 for under 25’s, so he clearly hadn’t even looked at the ticket prices.

I really do fear for the Welsh game. Attitudes need to change towards our pro teams.
Someone needs to point out to these people that attendances are actually higher on the whole since 2003 than they were before.

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I still wake up late at night and think of what might have been when tim stimpson hit that jammy penalty1


Posted By: hartson11
Date Posted: 04 October 2021 at 12:49pm
Originally posted by scarletnut scarletnut wrote:

Originally posted by hartson11 hartson11 wrote:

Twitter has been awful this weekend (if you’re not on it, don’t do it to yourself).

Everyone from Lee Jarvis to the Valleys Rugby brigade poking fun at the Scarlets and Ospreys attendances, and ex journos like Delme Parfitt saying he turned off the Scarlets game as it was so boring.

Really is tiresome seeing so many knock the pro game in Wales, yes I realise the competition is far from ideal, yes I understand we all want an Anglo Welsh league, but it is what it is and I wish people would get behind our teams.

I won’t knock those who stay away due to the pandemic or have money worries etc, that’s totally understandable, but some of the excuses I’ve read about not going to games lead me to believe that in general, Welsh rugby fans are just complete tight arses who want something for nothing. Saw one guy moaning it was too expensive to take his kids to an Ospreys game…….their season tickets are £25 for under 25’s, so he clearly hadn’t even looked at the ticket prices.

I really do fear for the Welsh game. Attitudes need to change towards our pro teams.
Someone needs to point out to these people that attendances are actually higher on the whole since 2003 than they were before.

Unfortunately facts don’t seem to matter to a lot of them, it’s all about pushing an agenda.


Posted By: dyniol53
Date Posted: 04 October 2021 at 2:06pm
Based on 2018/19 sales, and the upcoming KO times we would do well to have:

8,500 for Munster. Sunday 10th Oct, 2pm

7,500 for Benneton. Friday 22nd Oct, 7:35pm

Anything more than that would be a good turnout. 

More than 500 below that and it’ll disappointing. And by the looks of it, they will both be good, tough games. 


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Posted By: 157cb
Date Posted: 04 October 2021 at 2:10pm

   Weather forecast good for Sunday. 


Posted By: hartson11
Date Posted: 04 October 2021 at 2:21pm
Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

Based on 2018/19 sales, and the upcoming KO times we would do well to have:

8,500 for Munster. Sunday 10th Oct, 2pm

7,500 for Benneton. Friday 22nd Oct, 7:35pm

Anything more than that would be a good turnout. 

More than 500 below that and it’ll disappointing. And by the looks of it, they will both be good, tough games. 

Agreed, although based on my interactions with rugby fans I know, the pandemic is still keeping a surprising number of people away.


Posted By: scarletsrules
Date Posted: 04 October 2021 at 2:25pm
Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

Based on 2018/19 sales, and the upcoming KO times we would do well to have:

8,500 for Munster. Sunday 10th Oct, 2pm

7,500 for Benneton. Friday 22nd Oct, 7:35pm

Anything more than that would be a good turnout. 

More than 500 below that and it’ll disappointing. And by the looks of it, they will both be good, tough games. 


Id be shocked if we had more than 7000 for Munster sunday. Looking at the online sales it seems to be very slow. The game isnt publicised very well in my opinion by the Scarlets , they should be out there pushing it


Posted By: dyniol53
Date Posted: 04 October 2021 at 3:54pm
Originally posted by scarletsrules scarletsrules wrote:

Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

Based on 2018/19 sales, and the upcoming KO times we would do well to have:

8,500 for Munster. Sunday 10th Oct, 2pm



Id be shocked if we had more than 7000 for Munster sunday. Looking at the online sales it seems to be very slow. The game isnt publicised very well in my opinion by the Scarlets , they should be out there pushing it

Interesting, we had 8,000 vs Munster last time. That was a Saturday in March. 

Maybe, given it’s a Sunday, we’ll be in the 7,000s. But I’m forecasting just north of 8k as I think we’ve got a bit of momentum from that win last week, new regime playing positive rugby and if the weather it nice there will be a few walk ups.

Remember 7,824 turned up vs an opposition no one has heard of last Fri, whereas there’s a little history with Munster.


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Posted By: Wasp
Date Posted: 04 October 2021 at 10:29pm
Originally posted by hartson11 hartson11 wrote:

Twitter has been awful this weekend (if you’re not on it, don’t do it to yourself).

Everyone from Lee Jarvis to the Valleys Rugby brigade poking fun at the Scarlets and Ospreys attendances, and ex journos like Delme Parfitt saying he turned off the Scarlets game as it was so boring.

Really is tiresome seeing so many knock the pro game in Wales, yes I realise the competition is far from ideal, yes I understand we all want an Anglo Welsh league, but it is what it is and I wish people would get behind our teams.

I won’t knock those who stay away due to the pandemic or have money worries etc, that’s totally understandable, but some of the excuses I’ve read about not going to games lead me to believe that in general, Welsh rugby fans are just complete tight arses who want something for nothing. Saw one guy moaning it was too expensive to take his kids to an Ospreys game…….their season tickets are £25 for under 25’s, so he clearly hadn’t even looked at the ticket prices.

I really do fear for the Welsh game. Attitudes need to change towards our pro teams.
Delme was the chief Roger Lewis sycophant. A football fan who knows very little about rugby. No further comment required
Jarvis is a complete and utter troll. He knows exactly how to wind up the few Ponty fans that follow him and he clearly loves to incite a pile on. Very sad

Their opinions are devoid of fact and context.

But it is expensive. ST for me and Mrs Wasp = £400. That's a lot of money.

Stand tickets for Friday were £22, or £31 between the 22s.

So 2 adults and 2 kids, over £50+ Travel and at least some food and drink at least £70?
That's a lot of money when the minimum wage is £8.91

It's not an easy problem to solve, but we have a very good board, a great stadium and a pretty decent squad. If Dwayne can get the best out of them, we could have a decent season and start to grow our following




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We're still still here!


Posted By: Wasp
Date Posted: 04 October 2021 at 10:31pm
Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

Originally posted by scarletsrules scarletsrules wrote:

Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

Based on 2018/19 sales, and the upcoming KO times we would do well to have:

8,500 for Munster. Sunday 10th Oct, 2pm



Id be shocked if we had more than 7000 for Munster sunday. Looking at the online sales it seems to be very slow. The game isnt publicised very well in my opinion by the Scarlets , they should be out there pushing it

Interesting, we had 8,000 vs Munster last time. That was a Saturday in March. 

Maybe, given it’s a Sunday, we’ll be in the 7,000s. But I’m forecasting just north of 8k as I think we’ve got a bit of momentum from that win last week, new regime playing positive rugby and if the weather it nice there will be a few walk ups.

Remember 7,824 turned up vs an opposition no one has heard of last Fri, whereas there’s a little history with Munster.
I'd be surprised if we get 7000 on Sunday.
  • How many of the 7824 actually turned up?
  • How many tickets were issued free to NHS?
  • How many people are still worried about Covid and crowds?
I'll be there, and I really hope we get a good crowd


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We're still still here!


Posted By: dyniol53
Date Posted: 05 October 2021 at 9:27am
Originally posted by Wasp Wasp wrote:

Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

Remember 7,824 turned up vs an opposition no one has heard of last Fri, whereas there’s a little history with Munster.
I'd be surprised if we get 7000 on Sunday.
  • How many of the 7824 actually turned up?
  • How many tickets were issued free to NHS?
  • How many people are still worried about Covid and crowds?
I'll be there, and I really hope we get a good crowd

Bring two inflatable companions - put one to the left and one on the right - it’ll look like a full stadium and you might even get on Tele! 


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