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Run-in (turned scrum-half assessment)

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Mr Lee91 View Drop Down
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    Posted: 03 April 2022 at 4:05am
I know I'm being overly optimistic here but looking at the last few rounds of fixtures and finishing as high as 4th is still plausible.
Obviously there are a lot of fixtures and just one going the wrong way would put all this to bed but I can only see one problem game (Glasgow beating Bulls in SA) so I'm quietly hoping for this sequence of results.

SCARLETS 32pts (55pts) - 4th
(A) Cardiff - 5pts
(H) Dragons - 5pts
(A) Dragons - 5pts
(A) Ospreys - 4pts
(H) Stormers - 4pts

EDINBURGH 44pts (54pts) - 5th
(H) Zebre - 5pts
(H) Ulster - 1pt
(H) Glasgow - 4pts

BULLS 42pts (54pts) - 6th
(A) Stormers - 1pt
(H) Benneton - 5pts
(H) Glasgow - 1pt
(A) Ospreys - 5pts

MUNSTER 47pts (53pts) - 7th
(A) Ulster - 1pt
(H) Cardiff - 5pts
(A) Leinster - 0pts

STORMERS 43pts (53pts) - 8th
(H) Bulls - 4pts
(H) Glasgow - 4pts
(H) Leinster - 1pt
(A) Scarlets - 1pt

SHARKS 41pts (52pts) - 9th
(H) Lions - 5pts
(H) Leinster - 0pts
(H) Connacht - 5pts
(A) Ulster - 1pt


Edited by Mr Lee91 - 03 April 2022 at 4:05am
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ScarletBear View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ScarletBear Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 April 2022 at 5:19am
Well manipulated lol
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Legendinmybathroom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 April 2022 at 7:08am
I believe that if we do the double next weekend ( which will not be easy given Sione’s red card and the fact that the blues will be hurting badly and will have a point to prove) we will go on and finish as the highest placed welsh region in the league.
Unfortunately I still see us dropping points in the run in, the dragons have a habit of bringing us down to their level (especially at Dave parade), but I do see us beating the stormer sat home and providing that Sione is available, taking the Ospreys all the way at the Liberty stadium.
I would predict we finish with 50 points and finish no higher than 6th (which considering how inconsistent we've been would be some feat), although I would be delighted if we finish any higher.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jones2004 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 April 2022 at 2:08pm
What I’ve taken away from that is that you’ve been as optimistic as possible (from our POV) in your results for the other teams and yet if we don’t win one game we wouldn’t finish in the top 8. Had we beaten Connaught we could’ve afforded to lose one game in the run in and still been in the top 8. As it is unless we win all our remaining games I can’t see us finishing in the top 8. If we do win all our remaining games I think it’s very likely we’ll finish in the top 8 - I’d need to be a psychic to have any clue where though!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Wasp Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 April 2022 at 3:32pm
Too many close games in there to call. 
8th would be an excellent result given where we've come from. 
We're still still here!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rob o'r Bont Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 April 2022 at 4:14pm
You can't beat a good run-in thread. Smile

If we win all our games, happy days but my expectation is that we will lose a few.  Given how things have gone, I think a successful season will now be measured in whether we end up being the Top Welsh Region (TWR for short) or not, thus opening the way to next years European competition.

I think the Ospreys will be our biggest challengers to being TWR and they could well win all four of their remaining matches including the one against us, giving them anything between 46 and 50 points total.

So we need to win four of the last five games (2 with BPs) to be sure of being TWR unless someone does us a favour and beats the Ospreys.  Alternatively, if we beat the Ospreys, we will get away with being TWR by only winning another 2 games.

Have I set the ambition bar to low for us? If this was my prediction at the start of the season I would say yes,  but given the season that we have had, I think the team will do well to win 3 of the next 5 games.


Edited by Rob o'r Bont - 04 April 2022 at 8:47am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Endeavour Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 April 2022 at 5:16pm
Originally posted by Wasp Wasp wrote:

Too many close games in there to call. 
8th would be an excellent result given where we've come from. 
completely agree. As you said so many tight games. But feels like there's hope.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sosban89 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 April 2022 at 5:25pm
All I care about is finishing with some good matches, and to get the top Welsh spot so we are in Europe. If we can finish with some momentum it'll be a great way to cap Dwayne's first season. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Devonscarlet Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 April 2022 at 7:44am
The game against the O's at the Liberty a couple of seasons back where we were playing for qualification in the champions cup was a great experience. The result wasn't what we wanted but the scarlets support was incredible as was the coach journey. We may not be competing at the top this season but there's certainly plenty of interest for the run in. It would be great to get a good following to the Swansea.com again on the 30th April. We know the team really responds to the atmosphere created by our supporters and we don't get too many occasions to take large numbers away so fingers crossed for another good away support and of course a better result this time around. 

A good run in can erase short term memories of a stop start season, just in time for season ticket renewals. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Fscarlet Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 April 2022 at 12:04pm
I really hope the massive gap in between our last 2 matches doesn't hamper us at all.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ChrisX Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 April 2022 at 12:24pm
We have been to South Africa (twice) Ireland etc done. We don't need to leave Wales now, with our biggest travel Newport, Cardiff, Swansea. 

We MUST back up Saturdays performance and result at the Arms Park. Must. If we can then Champions Cup qualification and top Welsh side is in our hands. We have 2 games in hand on Connacht, could do with Sharks dropping some points, they have to play Leinster and Ulster. 

ALL TO PLAY FOR. Come on Scarlets!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote scarletsrules Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 April 2022 at 12:49pm
Getting into the top 8 from where we were after losing at home to Connacht will be a great achievement , im confident we can continue where we left off against Cardiff this weekend, i would say this weekend is the toughest game of our run in but on the same hand Ospreys have had some notable results at the Swansea.com so that could prove quite difficult , we should have good travelling support to motivate the team at our last 2 away games
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote GPR - Rochester Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 April 2022 at 1:07pm
Whilst I was very pleased with our form against Cardiff I do not share the confidence of others that we can go to Cardiff & Swansea & win. Consistency of effort & performance is clearly what Dwayne seeks but he may have to suffer further setbacks before that becomes attainable.

What a great season ending game it would be if the winner of the Stormers v Scarlet game was guaranteed a top 8 spot. That could be our only full house of the season. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote turkishrebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 April 2022 at 1:17pm
tend to agree with GPR, 2 good results but can we perform away at our local rivals. we have not done for for many years now. 
it can also come down to injuries and bans. how bad is scotts injury and Kalamafonis possible ban?  2 massive players there for us.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 April 2022 at 1:28pm
I think it’s pretty important that we finish above the 4th placed Irish and South African sides.

We haven’t had a great season it’s a new low if all 4 welsh regions finish in the bottom 7
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote London Scarlet Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 April 2022 at 8:15pm
URC statmaster thinks we are well placed for a good finish https://www.unitedrugby.com/latest/analysis-opinion/play-off-probs
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