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Some Statistical Analysis on Attendance

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dyniol53 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 April 2019 at 10:41am
Originally posted by minded minded wrote:


Surely it was the same amount of home games because we played Cheetahs home in P14 QF?

Amended, Diolch!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote joni_bach Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 April 2019 at 11:26am
Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

Ha not far off at all, however that hasn't taken into account ECC drop offs! 

(Unless that 25% decrease just in Pro14 wins?) 

So the basic inputs for increasing attendance are...

5339 - "base rate" fans attend regardless of other variables
5499 - More fans attend a game if it is against the Ospreys
1521 - Bank holiday increase (compared to Saturday night kick off)
1151 - More fans attend a European Champions Cup fixture
1122 - Extra fans per game due to winning the league in the previous season
147 - Extra fans per Welsh international playing
22 - Extra fans For every 1 percent increase in home wins in the current season

So for surefire max attendance would ideally be a ECC game against the Ospreys on a bank holiday with all our Welsh internationals playing having won most of our games that season and had been champs the season previous!

Late reply sorry, but yes, this would theoretically result in an attendance of 17327
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 April 2019 at 11:32am
Wonder whether the Parc could put temporary seating to host 17,500 if such an event came!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 May 2019 at 11:39am
Anyone following this thread might also be interested in filling out this survey, originally posted on Speedy's post "Our Vision as a Rugby Club"

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 October 2021 at 11:52am
Originally posted by joni_bach joni_bach wrote:

I've realised why there was missing data for the stats since regionalisation. The software dismissed the observations where I didn't have information about free-to-air TV. Here is the revised data for 2003/04 - present. Please note that when you look at the data over a longer time-period, it is more difficult to establish relationships. We're comparing different home grounds for a start. For example, this data shows that winning the domestic championship has no significant effect on next season's attendances. This is true for when we won in 2003/04 but not true for 2016/17. You can read into this what you want (i.e. fans more loyal in 2003/04, smaller ground capacity) but on average the "2003/04 effect" cancels out the "2016/17 effect". This is why if you want relevant statistics, it's probably best to look at the PYS data rather than the data since 2003/04.

Dependent Variable: ATTENDANCE
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/17/18   Time: 12:06
Sample: 1 198
Included observations: 197
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.   Interpretation
C 5363.654 534.3685 10.03737 0 5363 fans attend each game regardless of other variables
CHAMPIONS 411.3662 341.2282 1.205546 0.2295 (not significant) Being champions last season has no significant affect on attendance
KOBH 1630.371 705.3552 2.311418 0.0219 Kick off on a bank holiday increases attendance by 1630 (compared to Saturday night kick off)
KOFRI -338.9818 332.8834 -1.01832 0.3098 (not significant) Kick off on a Friday night has no significant difference to attendance
KOSATPM -363.15 332.7979 -1.0912 0.2766 (not significant) Kick off on a Saturday night has no significant difference (compared to Saturday night kick off)
KOSUN -1289.581 430.2235 -2.99747 0.0031 Kick off on a Sunday decreases attendance by 1290 (compared to Saturday night kick off)
MATCHEURO 1191.333 299.0743 3.983402 0.0001 1191 extra fans attend a game if it is a European game
MATCHOSP 5554.988 626.178 8.871261 0 5555 extra fans attend a game if it is against the Ospreys
MATCHPLAYOFF 3905.523 1199.374 3.256302 0.0013 3905 extra fans attend a game if it is a play-off
WALESINT 195.7043 51.51144 3.79924 0.0002 195 extra fans attend a game for every Welsh international playing
WINPC 12.29727 4.758578 2.584231 0.0105 For every 1% increase in home wins in the current season, 12 extra fans attend
R-squared 0.574593     Mean dependent var 7698.746
Adjusted R-squared 0.551722     S.D. dependent var 2370.594
S.E. of regression 1587.198     Akaike info criterion 17.63155
Sum squared resid 4.69E+08     Schwarz criterion 17.81487
Log likelihood -1725.707     Hannan-Quinn criter. 17.70576
F-statistic 25.12284     Durbin-Watson stat 1.660806
Prob(F-statistic) 0

Simon Thomas on Twitter talking about the pitiful Ospreys v Cardiff attendance, 5,767.

Says he thinks it’s because of a Sat 7:35 KO time.

I wish people who are paid to do sports journalism could actually be bothered to work out whether such things are true before opining. 

Grateful to the likes of Joni Bach who have the skill and interest in sharing actual analysis of thing like the above. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote PritchyTheScarlet Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 October 2021 at 2:10pm
Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

Originally posted by joni_bach joni_bach wrote:

I've realised why there was missing data for the stats since regionalisation. The software dismissed the observations where I didn't have information about free-to-air TV. Here is the revised data for 2003/04 - present. Please note that when you look at the data over a longer time-period, it is more difficult to establish relationships. We're comparing different home grounds for a start. For example, this data shows that winning the domestic championship has no significant effect on next season's attendances. This is true for when we won in 2003/04 but not true for 2016/17. You can read into this what you want (i.e. fans more loyal in 2003/04, smaller ground capacity) but on average the "2003/04 effect" cancels out the "2016/17 effect". This is why if you want relevant statistics, it's probably best to look at the PYS data rather than the data since 2003/04.

Dependent Variable: ATTENDANCE
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/17/18   Time: 12:06
Sample: 1 198
Included observations: 197
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.   Interpretation
C 5363.654 534.3685 10.03737 0 5363 fans attend each game regardless of other variables
CHAMPIONS 411.3662 341.2282 1.205546 0.2295 (not significant) Being champions last season has no significant affect on attendance
KOBH 1630.371 705.3552 2.311418 0.0219 Kick off on a bank holiday increases attendance by 1630 (compared to Saturday night kick off)
KOFRI -338.9818 332.8834 -1.01832 0.3098 (not significant) Kick off on a Friday night has no significant difference to attendance
KOSATPM -363.15 332.7979 -1.0912 0.2766 (not significant) Kick off on a Saturday night has no significant difference (compared to Saturday night kick off)
KOSUN -1289.581 430.2235 -2.99747 0.0031 Kick off on a Sunday decreases attendance by 1290 (compared to Saturday night kick off)
MATCHEURO 1191.333 299.0743 3.983402 0.0001 1191 extra fans attend a game if it is a European game
MATCHOSP 5554.988 626.178 8.871261 0 5555 extra fans attend a game if it is against the Ospreys
MATCHPLAYOFF 3905.523 1199.374 3.256302 0.0013 3905 extra fans attend a game if it is a play-off
WALESINT 195.7043 51.51144 3.79924 0.0002 195 extra fans attend a game for every Welsh international playing
WINPC 12.29727 4.758578 2.584231 0.0105 For every 1% increase in home wins in the current season, 12 extra fans attend
R-squared 0.574593     Mean dependent var 7698.746
Adjusted R-squared 0.551722     S.D. dependent var 2370.594
S.E. of regression 1587.198     Akaike info criterion 17.63155
Sum squared resid 4.69E+08     Schwarz criterion 17.81487
Log likelihood -1725.707     Hannan-Quinn criter. 17.70576
F-statistic 25.12284     Durbin-Watson stat 1.660806
Prob(F-statistic) 0

Simon Thomas on Twitter talking about the pitiful Ospreys v Cardiff attendance, 5,767.

Says he thinks it’s because of a Sat 7:35 KO time.

I wish people who are paid to do sports journalism could actually be bothered to work out whether such things are true before opining. 

Grateful to the likes of Joni Bach who have the skill and interest in sharing actual analysis of thing like the above. 

There have been surveys conducted which indicate that Saturday 7.35 is a pretty bad kick-off time for attracting fans. The general feedback I see from supporters would suggest the same thing too. It's certainly not a KO time I'm a huge fan of, but understand that it needs to fit around broadcast schedules etc.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote tannerbankboy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 October 2021 at 2:46pm
I'd have thought 7.35 at the weekend is fine for attracting younger fans, a late night yes, but no school the next day.  Although it's not so good for those travelling an hour or more to the game.  Having said that there will always be a lot of evening games due to TV schedules.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 October 2021 at 3:17pm
Yeah I think the stated preference of fans is Sat 3-5pm KOs. But the stats above didn’t seem to display much difference between KO times and attendance, for the Scarlets.

Initially they seemed to show Friday and Sundays were worse ,-500 and -900 respectively, but then when Joni ran another set it said Fri had no-significant effect whereas Sunday had larger effects -1200.

There’s obviously a bit a noise/unreliability/confounding effects in the data but I’d prefer it if professional pundits/journos actually bothered looking into things like this before dishing out their random opinions - leave that to us fans!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 October 2021 at 3:20pm
Originally posted by tannerbankboy tannerbankboy wrote:

I'd have thought 7.35 at the weekend is fine for attracting younger fans, a late night yes, but no school the next day.  Although it's not so good for those travelling an hour or more to the game.  Having said that there will always be a lot of evening games due to TV schedules.

I understand the thinking “7:35pm KO is bad for families with young kids” etc but then 7:35 might also attract a different crowd, say young adults, which counteracts that. 

That’s why it’s important to actually look at the data - it’s all public!

There’s lots of negativity about attendances in Wales but the English Prem teams are disappointed with their turnouts so far this season too so its useful to know before everyone starts writing off the club game in Wales as a non-event 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote hartson11 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 October 2021 at 10:41am
Twitter has been awful this weekend (if you’re not on it, don’t do it to yourself).

Everyone from Lee Jarvis to the Valleys Rugby brigade poking fun at the Scarlets and Ospreys attendances, and ex journos like Delme Parfitt saying he turned off the Scarlets game as it was so boring.

Really is tiresome seeing so many knock the pro game in Wales, yes I realise the competition is far from ideal, yes I understand we all want an Anglo Welsh league, but it is what it is and I wish people would get behind our teams.

I won’t knock those who stay away due to the pandemic or have money worries etc, that’s totally understandable, but some of the excuses I’ve read about not going to games lead me to believe that in general, Welsh rugby fans are just complete tight arses who want something for nothing. Saw one guy moaning it was too expensive to take his kids to an Ospreys game…….their season tickets are £25 for under 25’s, so he clearly hadn’t even looked at the ticket prices.

I really do fear for the Welsh game. Attitudes need to change towards our pro teams.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote scarletnut Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 October 2021 at 11:25am
Originally posted by hartson11 hartson11 wrote:

Twitter has been awful this weekend (if you’re not on it, don’t do it to yourself).

Everyone from Lee Jarvis to the Valleys Rugby brigade poking fun at the Scarlets and Ospreys attendances, and ex journos like Delme Parfitt saying he turned off the Scarlets game as it was so boring.

Really is tiresome seeing so many knock the pro game in Wales, yes I realise the competition is far from ideal, yes I understand we all want an Anglo Welsh league, but it is what it is and I wish people would get behind our teams.

I won’t knock those who stay away due to the pandemic or have money worries etc, that’s totally understandable, but some of the excuses I’ve read about not going to games lead me to believe that in general, Welsh rugby fans are just complete tight arses who want something for nothing. Saw one guy moaning it was too expensive to take his kids to an Ospreys game…….their season tickets are £25 for under 25’s, so he clearly hadn’t even looked at the ticket prices.

I really do fear for the Welsh game. Attitudes need to change towards our pro teams.
Someone needs to point out to these people that attendances are actually higher on the whole since 2003 than they were before.
I still wake up late at night and think of what might have been when tim stimpson hit that jammy penalty1
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote hartson11 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 October 2021 at 12:49pm
Originally posted by scarletnut scarletnut wrote:

Originally posted by hartson11 hartson11 wrote:

Twitter has been awful this weekend (if you’re not on it, don’t do it to yourself).

Everyone from Lee Jarvis to the Valleys Rugby brigade poking fun at the Scarlets and Ospreys attendances, and ex journos like Delme Parfitt saying he turned off the Scarlets game as it was so boring.

Really is tiresome seeing so many knock the pro game in Wales, yes I realise the competition is far from ideal, yes I understand we all want an Anglo Welsh league, but it is what it is and I wish people would get behind our teams.

I won’t knock those who stay away due to the pandemic or have money worries etc, that’s totally understandable, but some of the excuses I’ve read about not going to games lead me to believe that in general, Welsh rugby fans are just complete tight arses who want something for nothing. Saw one guy moaning it was too expensive to take his kids to an Ospreys game…….their season tickets are £25 for under 25’s, so he clearly hadn’t even looked at the ticket prices.

I really do fear for the Welsh game. Attitudes need to change towards our pro teams.
Someone needs to point out to these people that attendances are actually higher on the whole since 2003 than they were before.

Unfortunately facts don’t seem to matter to a lot of them, it’s all about pushing an agenda.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 October 2021 at 2:06pm
Based on 2018/19 sales, and the upcoming KO times we would do well to have:

8,500 for Munster. Sunday 10th Oct, 2pm

7,500 for Benneton. Friday 22nd Oct, 7:35pm

Anything more than that would be a good turnout. 

More than 500 below that and it’ll disappointing. And by the looks of it, they will both be good, tough games. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 157cb Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 October 2021 at 2:10pm

   Weather forecast good for Sunday. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote hartson11 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 October 2021 at 2:21pm
Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

Based on 2018/19 sales, and the upcoming KO times we would do well to have:

8,500 for Munster. Sunday 10th Oct, 2pm

7,500 for Benneton. Friday 22nd Oct, 7:35pm

Anything more than that would be a good turnout. 

More than 500 below that and it’ll disappointing. And by the looks of it, they will both be good, tough games. 

Agreed, although based on my interactions with rugby fans I know, the pandemic is still keeping a surprising number of people away.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote scarletsrules Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 October 2021 at 2:25pm
Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

Based on 2018/19 sales, and the upcoming KO times we would do well to have:

8,500 for Munster. Sunday 10th Oct, 2pm

7,500 for Benneton. Friday 22nd Oct, 7:35pm

Anything more than that would be a good turnout. 

More than 500 below that and it’ll disappointing. And by the looks of it, they will both be good, tough games. 


Id be shocked if we had more than 7000 for Munster sunday. Looking at the online sales it seems to be very slow. The game isnt publicised very well in my opinion by the Scarlets , they should be out there pushing it
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