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greypower1 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote greypower1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 October 2021 at 10:38pm
Originally posted by Rob o'r Bont Rob o'r Bont wrote:

What I really hope will come out of Brexit is a UK workforce that's highly trained and well paid. We're a long way off that and I'm not sure this government has the ability to achieve this, but given time.......

You missed out "productive" in your workforce description.  And the country still needs lesser trained workers for the manual tasks such as bin men, agricultural work and unpleasant caring jobs. Where are these to come from now?.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote GPR - Rochester Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 October 2021 at 8:22am
Originally posted by Rob o'r Bont Rob o'r Bont wrote:

What I really hope will come out of Brexit is a UK workforce that's highly trained and well paid. We're a long way off that and I'm not sure this government has the ability to achieve this, but given time.......

Clap Thats the spirit Rob. Good man. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote GPR - Rochester Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 October 2021 at 8:27am
Originally posted by Rob o'r Bont Rob o'r Bont wrote:

Originally posted by GPR - Rochester GPR - Rochester wrote:

Originally posted by Rob o'r Bont Rob o'r Bont wrote:

Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

Originally posted by dr_martinov dr_martinov wrote:

It does show the GFA wasn't that well thought through because no one even thought to ask these what if questions. This is why I describe it as short-term in that it is unworkable for the long term (how long will a border that is not a border last?). Your point about why let the Americans influence is also something I agree with. I doubt they would take that well to us telling them what to do with their Mexican border. In some ways, it is actually a victory for terrorism as it is a fear of a return of "the troubles" preventing the ending of the GFA. It also means that since the GFA nothing has actually been solved in NI if it is still needed, which must go down as some sort of failure.

But it's a sensitive topic I know. They only are really considering option 3, the "messy mix" as I call it, because they know option 1 would end them politically. Option 2 also receives criticism that it is leading to the break up of the UK but each of these would be a much better long term decision as otherwise we will face endless re-jigging of unfavourable agreements, arguments and scapegoating. Something which may very well be to the current Government's benefit as I pointed out earlier.

I feel like we have talked about it and thought through the implications far, far more than the actual politicians. Johnson is now recorded as saying "The Northern Ireland issue is a gnat", as a quick example. But we know his words mean the square root of flip all.

In short.... what on earth don't we elect them for? 

Three good points highlighted there - as I touched on in previous post - the GFA was a compromise based on a set of assumptions that didn’t actually come to fruition.

It’s either a border or it isn’t. To who do I pay my tax? I’m either in one council or another. In this case, you’re either paying taxes to Dublin or London. That’s the border! If EU/U.K. want to check things crossing that border then they have erected a hard border. And if there isn’t a border there, they’re putting up a border somewhere else. In this case, the Irish Sea. 

That doesn’t work for the U.K. so the U.K. should say sorry we can’t have a border inside our country you can’t do checks here you’ll have to do them in your own land.

To which the EU say “you can’t build a hard border on the Ireland of Ireland” 

To which the U.K. say “we’re not”

To which the EU say “well we have to check what’s coming into the single market and what’s leaving”

And the U.K. says “okay, you can build your hard border”

To which the EU says “you’re risking violence”

To which the U.K. says “we’re literally doing nothing”
All of this misses the point that it's actually the EU that is literally doing nothing.  It's the UK that created this mess by voting leave.  The EU are merely trying to help us sort out our own dirty washing.

Rob why do you think that leave voters would have prior knowledge of the difficulties created by Northern Ireland. These difficulties, as pointed out above, were to appease the EU's requirement for a border check on goods leaving Northern Ireland & entering the EU. The common sense solution was a border between N.Ireland & Ireland where EU checks could be made. What we have now is a system where most of the goods shipped between England/Wales & Scotland & N.Ireland require checks when only a small minority of the goods are really destined for Ireland. This issue could have been resolved by the hard border suggested above but was not acceptable to the EU using the GFA as some sort of deal breaker.

Many leave voters did so partly because of this bureaucratic nonsense which pervades the EU at every level. With the benefit of hindsight our Government should have flatly refused the Northern Ireland protocol and accepted a no deal Brexit if that was the only alternative. If they had done that then the losers would have been Ireland because they then would have had to create a border due to EU regulations which, of course, is what some of us are actually advocating - it begs the question whats the difference.
GPR, you have this completely the wrong way around.  It’s not the EU that’s preventing your ‘common sense’ solution of a border between N.Ireland & Ireland, It’s the internal politics of N.Ireland & Ireland that’s preventing it. The fact is, a border between N.Ireland & Ireland is totally unacceptable to a large majority of the people there. 

I am enjoying this discussion but to simplify it - Rob, Dyniol & Dr M let me ask one genuine question. What would have happened if the UK had not signed up to a withdrawal agreement & left without an agreement. Am I missing something or would there have had to be checks introduced in Ireland for goods crossing into Ireland & therefore the EU.?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dr_martinov Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 October 2021 at 8:55am
Originally posted by GPR - Rochester GPR - Rochester wrote:

I am enjoying this discussion but to simplify it - Rob, Dyniol & Dr M let me ask one genuine question. What would have happened if the UK had not signed up to a withdrawal agreement & left without an agreement. Am I missing something or would there have had to be checks introduced in Ireland for goods crossing into Ireland & therefore the EU.?

Yes, I'd imagine so. And then over time deals would be introduced and then tinkered with to likely ease some of those checks and the number of them being made etc. Having a withdrawal deal - even if it was written with the full intention of ripping it up ASAP - provided a starting point so was an advancement upon this situation.

I hope it's also clear most of my criticism is the UK's government and the lying people involved in this, that they only used Brexit to gain power, had little idea to actually implement it, are clearly using the EU as a scapegoat and that this all is damaging the UK's reputation. How can you trust any deal we sign? It's just so laughable the stuff that's going on, bragging about oven ready deals and getting Brexit done only for the negotiator to say "actually this deal I negotiated is unworkable". In any other walk of life people get sacked for not delivering but there you go, this is UK politics and he was made a Lord instead. 

Maybe we should spend a bit of time examining how other EU/non-EU borders function? Our politicians likely haven't bothered but perhaps their advisors will read this forum.

Ukraine, Norway (is a member of the EEA or something and free market?), Belarus, Serbia, how do they work? Does the EU do different things with each depending on what their Governments demand or is there a general one size fits all approach? I have no idea.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote GPR - Rochester Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 October 2021 at 9:20am
Originally posted by dr_martinov dr_martinov wrote:

Originally posted by GPR - Rochester GPR - Rochester wrote:

I am enjoying this discussion but to simplify it - Rob, Dyniol & Dr M let me ask one genuine question. What would have happened if the UK had not signed up to a withdrawal agreement & left without an agreement. Am I missing something or would there have had to be checks introduced in Ireland for goods crossing into Ireland & therefore the EU.?

Yes, I'd imagine so. And then over time deals would be introduced and then tinkered with to likely ease some of those checks and the number of them being made etc. Having a withdrawal deal - even if it was written with the full intention of ripping it up ASAP - provided a starting point so was an advancement upon this situation.

I hope it's also clear most of my criticism is the UK's government and the lying people involved in this, that they only used Brexit to gain power, had little idea to actually implement it, are clearly using the EU as a scapegoat and that this all is damaging the UK's reputation. How can you trust any deal we sign? It's just so laughable the stuff that's going on, bragging about oven ready deals and getting Brexit done only for the negotiator to say "actually this deal I negotiated is unworkable". In any other walk of life people get sacked for not delivering but there you go, this is UK politics and he was made a Lord instead. 

Maybe we should spend a bit of time examining how other EU/non-EU borders function? Our politicians likely haven't bothered but perhaps their advisors will read this forum.

Ukraine, Norway (is a member of the EEA or something and free market?), Belarus, Serbia, how do they work? Does the EU do different things with each depending on what their Governments demand or is there a general one size fits all approach? I have no idea.

Dr M - I totally agree with you that the UK politicians implementation & planning for Brexit have been short of expectations to put it mildly. Acting as a devil's advocate for Lord Frost, which is very uncomfortable but nevertheless, he may point out that Covid may have derailed the Government's efficiency somewhat & with particular reference to Northern Ireland it does appear that the EU also feel that the signed up protocol is indeed unworkable now that it has been tried & tested in practice. 

With regard to other non EU borders my only experience is driving through France en route to Lake Como when I was stopped for 1 minute at the Swiss border. A quick check of passports and away to go. Some French cargo vehicles were ahead of us and seemed to pass through quickly. My point about a no deal withdrawal I think highlights the double standards which exist within Irish politicians. The GFA is held up as this great peace initiative & therefore no border can be countenanced but that position would have evaporated if there had been no deal. 

Again being a devil's advocate for Boris, I am having a great day today, perhaps that is the reason he has taken the stance he has - namely kicking the can down the road on the Irish issue. That non lovable rogue Dominic Cummings said more or less that in a recent interview with Laura Kuensburg. He said that the main aim was to get rid of Corbyn, achieve a working majority & get Brexit through. All parties to the NI protocol - politicians from UK, Ireland & the EU knew that it was kicking the can down the road but found it expedient at the time. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dr_martinov Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 October 2021 at 9:34am
I agree: the GFA and lack of anyone wishing to remove it is kicking the can down the road. Very little has been solved in NI and the US sticking their nose in to say "don't touch the GFA" is ridiculous when you think of it. The GFA won't last forever but if we look at it there should have been some future plan for what would happen off the back of it. Politicians just go for short-term fixes let's face it because five years later or so they're out of power.

So I understand both Norway and Switzerland have to accept EU laws in order to trade with it, some sort of access to the free market which I'd imagine they pay a lot to get, but then with the bonus of much easier movement/trading across borders. I believe this has been completely rejected by the UK (the Norway type deal certainly was). Meaning completely different situation. Worth checking Ukraine and those lot if you have time, countries that don't have access to the EU single market, not sure what happens there.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 October 2021 at 11:16am
Yes, this was all semi-debated during and after the referendum.

Would it be a Swiss style deal (in shengen)
A Norway style deal (in single market)
A Icelandic type deal (in EFTA)
An Albanian type deal (???)
A Canadian type deal (free-trade agreement)
A no-deal (unprecedented)

They were all useful analogies but the Leave politicians would argue for a British type deal - understandably vague and deliberately ‘patriotic’. 

The working assumption was that because the U.K. is a bigger and more integral market than any of those countries, it could carve out something unique for itself and have fewer compromises than say, the Norwegians do, and maybe even a better FTA than the Canadians (AKA Canada Plus)

The specifics of all that would come out of the negotiations. There are obvious examples of how the now-emerged British deal is worse than the Canadians (e.g. there are no EU border checks between Ontario and Quebec) and also examples of how it’s “better” than Norwegian on controls of immigration (if that’s something the population care about - spoiler most do, even when we see the affects of it).

I have no idea what a No-deal would have actually looked like, though I’m glad it didn’t occur. The nation to suffer the most would have been Ireland, then closely followed by the U.K. and the rest of the EU would also have had issues, but not on the scale the British Isles would’ve felt.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jones2004 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 October 2021 at 12:01pm
Originally posted by dr_martinov dr_martinov wrote:

I agree: the GFA and lack of anyone wishing to remove it is kicking the can down the road. Very little has been solved in NI and the US sticking their nose in to say "don't touch the GFA" is ridiculous when you think of it. The GFA won't last forever but if we look at it there should have been some future plan for what would happen off the back of it. Politicians just go for short-term fixes let's face it because five years later or so they're out of power.

So I understand both Norway and Switzerland have to accept EU laws in order to trade with it, some sort of access to the free market which I'd imagine they pay a lot to get, but then with the bonus of much easier movement/trading across borders. I believe this has been completely rejected by the UK (the Norway type deal certainly was). Meaning completely different situation. Worth checking Ukraine and those lot if you have time, countries that don't have access to the EU single market, not sure what happens there.
Normally I’d agree with you on politicians kicking cans down the road but doing that has meant 25 years of peace Ireland would perhaps not have had otherwise. If kicking a few cans down the roads was a price that had to be paid for that then I don’t blame anyone for doing it. What the NI Brexit debate exemplifies for me is the ridiculousness of NI being part of the UK. The unionists are angry that Johnson doesn’t give a poo about them, but I doubt any PM has, with the exception of when there was a risk of the troubles affecting England. What should’ve happened is for NI and the ROI to rejoin and then the Irish sea border wouldn’t be a problem, but of course I’m not naive enough to think it’s that simple!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dr_martinov Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 October 2021 at 12:52pm
Originally posted by Jones2004 Jones2004 wrote:

Originally posted by dr_martinov dr_martinov wrote:

I agree: the GFA and lack of anyone wishing to remove it is kicking the can down the road. Very little has been solved in NI and the US sticking their nose in to say "don't touch the GFA" is ridiculous when you think of it. The GFA won't last forever but if we look at it there should have been some future plan for what would happen off the back of it. Politicians just go for short-term fixes let's face it because five years later or so they're out of power.

So I understand both Norway and Switzerland have to accept EU laws in order to trade with it, some sort of access to the free market which I'd imagine they pay a lot to get, but then with the bonus of much easier movement/trading across borders. I believe this has been completely rejected by the UK (the Norway type deal certainly was). Meaning completely different situation. Worth checking Ukraine and those lot if you have time, countries that don't have access to the EU single market, not sure what happens there.
Normally I’d agree with you on politicians kicking cans down the road but doing that has meant 25 years of peace Ireland would perhaps not have had otherwise. If kicking a few cans down the roads was a price that had to be paid for that then I don’t blame anyone for doing it. What the NI Brexit debate exemplifies for me is the ridiculousness of NI being part of the UK. The unionists are angry that Johnson doesn’t give a poo about them, but I doubt any PM has, with the exception of when there was a risk of the troubles affecting England. What should’ve happened is for NI and the ROI to rejoin and then the Irish sea border wouldn’t be a problem, but of course I’m not naive enough to think it’s that simple!

Yes, which is great and yes it is justifiable having it in the first place as a step towards a longer-term solution. I think we are in agreement what that solution could be but my point is that the GFA is not a long-term solution at all, and by long term I mean hundreds of years, and it shouldn't be viewed as such nor that it is untouchable which seems to be the Americans' point of view. It still might be too soon to end it but its main function was to end the troubles. Once this was done, the NI issue was viewed as "done", which clearly isn't the case because there still is that split in NI - which is technically part of the UK - and a decent number do not want re-unification with the ROI and want to remain UK. Chuck religion in and you have something English politicians do not want to get involved in as it is career ending. Now Brexit has brought it up again and we saw the Tory party pay off the DUP quite recently to show where their own views [at the time] were on that subject, that is Unionism. So they have taken that option off the table. 

There's no simple answer and a decision that will annoy people is inevitable. All you can do is make it in a not making it type of way and angle it so it looks like it's someone else's fault. I.e. our Government's modus operandi. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RR1972 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 October 2021 at 1:12pm
If we can off load n irelAnd onto the irish republic it would solve a lot of issues, good luck getting thr unionists to agree it  thoughSmileSmile
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote GPR - Rochester Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 October 2021 at 1:13pm
Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

Yes, this was all semi-debated during and after the referendum.

Would it be a Swiss style deal (in shengen)
A Norway style deal (in single market)
A Icelandic type deal (in EFTA)
An Albanian type deal (???)
A Canadian type deal (free-trade agreement)
A no-deal (unprecedented)

They were all useful analogies but the Leave politicians would argue for a British type deal - understandably vague and deliberately ‘patriotic’. 

The working assumption was that because the U.K. is a bigger and more integral market than any of those countries, it could carve out something unique for itself and have fewer compromises than say, the Norwegians do, and maybe even a better FTA than the Canadians (AKA Canada Plus)

The specifics of all that would come out of the negotiations. There are obvious examples of how the now-emerged British deal is worse than the Canadians (e.g. there are no EU border checks between Ontario and Quebec) and also examples of how it’s “better” than Norwegian on controls of immigration (if that’s something the population care about - spoiler most do, even when we see the affects of it).

I have no idea what a No-deal would have actually looked like, though I’m glad it didn’t occur. The nation to suffer the most would have been Ireland, then closely followed by the U.K. and the rest of the EU would also have had issues, but not on the scale the British Isles would’ve felt.

In all honesty Dyniol I think Britain were justified in expecting a better deal than any of the ones listed - why - because we, unlike the others, have been a staunch member of the EU for over 40 years and for most of that time we have been net contributors.

The problem in Brussels was and will remain that they see Britain as a huge competitor on their doorstep. They understand we have the capacity to compete very hard with them on the World stage & they are worried. I would not say that the European dream is dead but it is very unwell at the moment. Poland, Hungary, Spain, Portugal, Greece & Italy are all at various stages of discussing withdrawal which is hardly a glowing bill of health. I remain convinced we got out at the right time.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 October 2021 at 1:53pm
Originally posted by GPR - Rochester GPR - Rochester wrote:

The problem in Brussels was and will remain that they see Britain as a huge competitor on their doorstep. They understand we have the capacity to compete very hard with them on the World stage & they are worried. I would not say that the European dream is dead but it is very unwell at the moment. Poland, Hungary, Spain, Portugal, Greece & Italy are all at various stages of discussing withdrawal which is hardly a glowing bill of health. I remain convinced we got out at the right time.

The European dream is dying that’s for sure. 

It’s economy is growing slower than that of East Asia and the Americas. 
It’s population is declining, and where it’s not it’s because of immigration.
Most of Europe its embattled with some form of domestic terrorism, Islamist or otherwise.

To the Americans Europe is a museum and to the Chinese, Europe is nothing but a consumer. 

The EU has also made every attempt to provoke Russia, while also degrading the US, who provide them with security from Russia, but the Americans will stop caring about this within a decade. 

European Nationalism is the last hope European elites have of some sort of unifying ideology, but most Europeans don’t recognise it as a comforting identity - as Britain showed, but this is also true of countries like France, where Euroscepticism is actually quite pronounced.

Europe is out of ideas - it tried communism, it tried fascism, it’s trying nationalism - but Europe is tired. It’s relevance globally diminishing and Britain is no exception to that. 

All I see in Brexit Britain is an attempt (but no plan) to avoid becoming tired and irrelevant.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote GPR - Rochester Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 October 2021 at 2:00pm
Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

Originally posted by GPR - Rochester GPR - Rochester wrote:

The problem in Brussels was and will remain that they see Britain as a huge competitor on their doorstep. They understand we have the capacity to compete very hard with them on the World stage & they are worried. I would not say that the European dream is dead but it is very unwell at the moment. Poland, Hungary, Spain, Portugal, Greece & Italy are all at various stages of discussing withdrawal which is hardly a glowing bill of health. I remain convinced we got out at the right time.

The European dream is dying that’s for sure. 

It’s economy is growing slower than that of East Asia and the Americas. 
It’s population is declining, and where it’s not it’s because of immigration.
Most of Europe its embattled with some form of domestic terrorism, Islamist or otherwise.

To the Americans Europe is a museum and to the Chinese, Europe is nothing but a consumer. 

The EU has also made every attempt to provoke Russia, while also degrading the US, who provide them with security from Russia, but the Americans will stop caring about this within a decade. 

European Nationalism is the last hope European elites have of some sort of unifying ideology, but most Europeans don’t recognise it as a comforting identity - as Britain showed, but this is also true of countries like France, where Euroscepticism is actually quite pronounced.

Europe is out of ideas - it tried communism, it tried fascism, it’s trying nationalism - but Europe is tired. It’s relevance globally diminishing and Britain is no exception to that. 

All I see in Brexit Britain is an attempt (but no plan) to avoid becoming tired and irrelevant.


Well the age of Britain punching above its weight is well gone. However I am not despondent about our future prosperity which has been greatly enhanced by removing the yoke of the EU 27 from around our necks. Let them flounder on with their dreams of a European army and reliance on Russian Gas (50% to our 5%).
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