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aber-fan View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote aber-fan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 October 2021 at 1:22pm
Originally posted by GPR - Rochester GPR - Rochester wrote:

I see the French are at it again threatening to cut off Jersey's electricity supply if they don't get their own way over fishing licences. Time for the British government to say quite categorically that any further threats along these lines & steps will be taken to nationalise any French owned or part owned power stations located in Britain. 

The Brexit agreement contains dispute resolution procedures & I don't think those include threatening to switch off the lights.

Indeed.

They don't, either, allow for Lord Frost to unilaterally rubbish the NI Protocol - which he himself signed up to and praised at the time - and threaten to leave it, despite the EU bending over backwards to find a solution!

It'll be interesting if Frost goes down that route.

“You cannot reason a man out of what he never reasoned himself into.” (Jonathan Swift)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote aber-fan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 October 2021 at 1:33pm
Before I start this comment - does EVERYONE know what, exactly, the Office for Budget responsibility is? Is it neutral, a stooge for the Labour party, or something different?

I am assuming that most people don't know so:

"The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is a non-departmental public body funded by the UK Treasury, that the UK government established to provide independent economic forecasts and independent analysis of the public finances. It was formally created in May 2010 following the general election (although it had previously been constituted in shadow form by the Conservative party opposition in December 2009)[1] and was placed on a statutory footing by the Budget Responsibility and National Audit Act 2011.[2] It is one of a growing number of official independent fiscal watchdogs around the world."


So - it is an independent body created by the Tory government in 2011 to advise on the country's finances.

And - WHAT DOES THE OBR THINK ABOUT BREXIT?

Here is their conclusion:

"The impact of Brexit on the UK economy will be worse in the long run compared to the coronavirus pandemic, the chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility has said.

Richard Hughes said leaving the EU would reduce the UK's potential GDP by about 4% in the long term.

He said forecasts showed the pandemic would reduce GDP "by a further 2%".

"In the long term it is the case that Brexit has a bigger impact than the pandemic", he told the BBC."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59070020


So - Brexit will cause the British economy TWICE AS MUCH DAMAGE  as the COVID virus.


Great news.

“You cannot reason a man out of what he never reasoned himself into.” (Jonathan Swift)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ladram Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 October 2021 at 1:38pm
Originally posted by aber-fan aber-fan wrote:

Before I start this comment - does EVERYONE know what, exactly, the Office for Budget responsibility is? Is it neutral, a stooge for the Labour party, or something different?

I am assuming that most people don't know so:

"The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is a non-departmental public body funded by the UK Treasury, that the UK government established to provide independent economic forecasts and independent analysis of the public finances. It was formally created in May 2010 following the general election (although it had previously been constituted in shadow form by the Conservative party opposition in December 2009)[1] and was placed on a statutory footing by the Budget Responsibility and National Audit Act 2011.[2] It is one of a growing number of official independent fiscal watchdogs around the world."


So - it is an independent body created by the Tory government in 2011 to advise on the country's finances.

And - WHAT DOES THE OBR THINK ABOUT BREXIT?

Here is their conclusion:

"The impact of Brexit on the UK economy will be worse in the long run compared to the coronavirus pandemic, the chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility has said.

Richard Hughes said leaving the EU would reduce the UK's potential GDP by about 4% in the long term.

He said forecasts showed the pandemic would reduce GDP "by a further 2%".

"In the long term it is the case that Brexit has a bigger impact than the pandemic", he told the BBC."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59070020


So - Brexit will cause the British economy TWICE AS MUCH DAMAGE  as the COVID virus.


Great news.

That,like my best years is history just like brexit is,can't we find something else to moan about?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote GPR - Rochester Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 October 2021 at 1:47pm
Originally posted by ladram ladram wrote:

Originally posted by aber-fan aber-fan wrote:

Before I start this comment - does EVERYONE know what, exactly, the Office for Budget responsibility is? Is it neutral, a stooge for the Labour party, or something different?

I am assuming that most people don't know so:

"The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is a non-departmental public body funded by the UK Treasury, that the UK government established to provide independent economic forecasts and independent analysis of the public finances. It was formally created in May 2010 following the general election (although it had previously been constituted in shadow form by the Conservative party opposition in December 2009)[1] and was placed on a statutory footing by the Budget Responsibility and National Audit Act 2011.[2] It is one of a growing number of official independent fiscal watchdogs around the world."


So - it is an independent body created by the Tory government in 2011 to advise on the country's finances.

And - WHAT DOES THE OBR THINK ABOUT BREXIT?

Here is their conclusion:

"The impact of Brexit on the UK economy will be worse in the long run compared to the coronavirus pandemic, the chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility has said.

Richard Hughes said leaving the EU would reduce the UK's potential GDP by about 4% in the long term.

He said forecasts showed the pandemic would reduce GDP "by a further 2%".

"In the long term it is the case that Brexit has a bigger impact than the pandemic", he told the BBC."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59070020


So - Brexit will cause the British economy TWICE AS MUCH DAMAGE  as the COVID virus.


Great news.

That,like my best years is history just like brexit is,can't we find something else to moan about?

To be fair Nigel Aber has been pretty quiet on the Brexit front for a while - perhaps its something to do with the behaviour of the French who I note he doesn't comment on. As for Frost not adhering to the NI protocol Aber would be well advised to listen to the top EU negotiator who agreed with Lord Frost that in practice it wasn't working & needed to be amended. 

As for quoting guesstimates from government departments he should really know better than to rely on any of those which have failed so spectacularly in the past. Who knows next he will be saying how great an investment the track & trace investment has been!!!!!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 October 2021 at 3:30pm
To be fair I am 99% sure Aber voted for Brexit but only because of the 350m/NHS and now feels duped Wink

#regrexit


Edited by dyniol53 - 28 October 2021 at 3:30pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote GPR - Rochester Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 October 2021 at 3:54pm
Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

To be fair I am 99% sure Aber voted for Brexit but only because of the 350m/NHS and now feels duped Wink

#regrexit

Careful Dyniol or else there will a bucket load of FACTS coming your way. Cry
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 October 2021 at 4:00pm
Originally posted by GPR - Rochester GPR - Rochester wrote:

Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

To be fair I am 99% sure Aber voted for Brexit but only because of the 350m/NHS and now feels duped Wink

#regrexit

Careful Dyniol or else there will a bucket load of FACTS coming your way. Cry

They’re only Facts if they come from the part of France Aber holidays, otherwise they’re just sparkling half-truths 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Eastern outpost Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 October 2021 at 7:29pm
We went to a vineyard here this morning. A couple (of Brits) who’ve been here awhile, pioneered Bio (organic) processes, which are now becoming the way to work because of all the health issues arising from the pesticides etc used on the vineyards (and other agricultural enterprises, too, no doubt). One vineyard owner got cancer and immediately changed direction to go organic.

Wine analysis is done to test for trace elements. There are well over 50 noxious ingredients that can be tested for. While listed in chemical formula or other names, those in the know say, “Oh DDT”. 

Must say, it made me think about what wine to buy.

Onto travel restrictions post the 31/12/2020 terms, the vineyard owner told of many stories where folk had been turned round off the boats and sent back to the U.K.

One was asked about all his camera equipment. His reply was that he’d an assignment to carry out for a work colleague. When asked where his visa was, he was dumbfounded. He was refused entry. Rookie mistake for sure.

Plenty of other stories similarly. Those travelling in vans are more likely to get stopped as there’s an implication they’re carrying out a trade, even if they’re only doing up they’re own place, or empty it of easily resaleable stuff, when returning to the U.K. until their next trip.

Divide and conquer. Conquer and divide. Political or more physical battles do one or other, sometimes both.

Those affected by change most will relate their stories of reduced freedom/flexibility and rightly so. It’s free speech.

What wouldn’t a skilled opposition give for a Tory funded body’s own goal re the drag on GDP, as a result of the agreement that they negotiated?

Oh wait!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Eastern outpost Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 October 2021 at 7:31pm
Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

Originally posted by GPR - Rochester GPR - Rochester wrote:

Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

To be fair I am 99% sure Aber voted for Brexit but only because of the 350m/NHS and now feels duped Wink

#regrexit

Careful Dyniol or else there will a bucket load of FACTS coming your way. Cry

They’re only Facts if they come from the part of France Aber holidays, otherwise they’re just sparkling half-truths 
BTW, I think it’s more a case of having half his family from France not to mention having lived there for some time. 

That’s a much deeper knowledge resource than a holidaymaker.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 October 2021 at 7:37pm
Originally posted by Eastern outpost Eastern outpost wrote:

Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

They’re only Facts if they come from the part of France Aber holidays, otherwise they’re just sparkling half-truths 
BTW, I think it’s more a case of having half his family from France not to mention having lived there for some time. 

That’s a much deeper knowledge resource than a holidaymaker.

Ahh, tres bien! 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RR1972 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 October 2021 at 9:13pm
Originally posted by aber-fan aber-fan wrote:

Before I start this comment - does EVERYONE know what, exactly, the Office for Budget responsibility is? Is it neutral, a stooge for the Labour party, or something different?

I am assuming that most people don't know so:

"The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is a non-departmental public body funded by the UK Treasury, that the UK government established to provide independent economic forecasts and independent analysis of the public finances. It was formally created in May 2010 following the general election (although it had previously been constituted in shadow form by the Conservative party opposition in December 2009)[1] and was placed on a statutory footing by the Budget Responsibility and National Audit Act 2011.[2] It is one of a growing number of official independent fiscal watchdogs around the world."


So - it is an independent body created by the Tory government in 2011 to advise on the country's finances.

And - WHAT DOES THE OBR THINK ABOUT BREXIT?

Here is their conclusion:

"The impact of Brexit on the UK economy will be worse in the long run compared to the coronavirus pandemic, the chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility has said.

Richard Hughes said leaving the EU would reduce the UK's potential GDP by about 4% in the long term.

He said forecasts showed the pandemic would reduce GDP "by a further 2%".

"In the long term it is the case that Brexit has a bigger impact than the pandemic", he told the BBC."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59070020


So - Brexit will cause the British economy TWICE AS MUCH DAMAGE  as the COVID virus.


Great news.

that’s forecasts not fact though, these same finanxial gurus said we should join the euro yet failed to predict the big financial crash coming, they maybe right they maybe wrong. But lets not kid ourselves that they are always right cos they ain’t , that applies doubly so to people who spend all their careers in academia or working for think tanks or quangos.  If they are that switched on why areN’t they working in the city earning a fortune?? Ive no doubt there will be issues with deals post brexiit but doubly worse than a global pandemic?? Seems nonsense to me tbh and i’d gladly tell oxbridge hughes that to his face

Edited by RR1972 - 28 October 2021 at 9:55pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RR1972 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 October 2021 at 9:19pm
Originally posted by Eastern outpost Eastern outpost wrote:

We went to a vineyard here this morning. A couple (of Brits) who’ve been here awhile, pioneered Bio (organic) processes, which are now becoming the way to work because of all the health issues arising from the pesticides etc used on the vineyards (and other agricultural enterprises, too, no doubt). One vineyard owner got cancer and immediately changed direction to go organic.

Wine analysis is done to test for trace elements. There are well over 50 noxious ingredients that can be tested for. While listed in chemical formula or other names, those in the know say, “Oh DDT”. 

Must say, it made me think about what wine to buy.

Onto travel restrictions post the 31/12/2020 terms, the vineyard owner told of many stories where folk had been turned round off the boats and sent back to the U.K.

One was asked about all his camera equipment. His reply was that he’d an assignment to carry out for a work colleague. When asked where his visa was, he was dumbfounded. He was refused entry. Rookie mistake for sure.

Plenty of other stories similarly. Those travelling in vans are more likely to get stopped as there’s an implication they’re carrying out a trade, even if they’re only doing up they’re own place, or empty it of easily resaleable stuff, when returning to the U.K. until their next trip.

Divide and conquer. Conquer and divide. Political or more physical battles do one or other, sometimes both.

Those affected by change most will relate their stories of reduced freedom/flexibility and rightly so. It’s free speech.

What wouldn’t a skilled opposition give for a Tory funded body’s own goal re the drag on GDP, as a result of the agreement that they negotiated?

Oh wait!
so the french are pulling over vans with uk plates and even if the drivers have a french address they are deporting them if they have tools in the back?  I feel any questions raised by our politiciAns about this should be aimed at france and their heavy handed approach not at the current uk govt tbh. Also the french govt authorities seizing uk ships and threatening to cut power supplies is hardly the act of a friendly neighbour. France appear to be talking tough and imo we should respond in kind. If france want to act the bully we should  do what you do with any bully give them a smack on the nose

Edited by RR1972 - 28 October 2021 at 9:29pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Eastern outpost Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 October 2021 at 10:11pm
Originally posted by RR1972 RR1972 wrote:

Originally posted by Eastern outpost Eastern outpost wrote:

We went to a vineyard here this morning. A couple (of Brits) who’ve been here awhile, pioneered Bio (organic) processes, which are now becoming the way to work because of all the health issues arising from the pesticides etc used on the vineyards (and other agricultural enterprises, too, no doubt). One vineyard owner got cancer and immediately changed direction to go organic.

Wine analysis is done to test for trace elements. There are well over 50 noxious ingredients that can be tested for. While listed in chemical formula or other names, those in the know say, “Oh DDT”. 

Must say, it made me think about what wine to buy.

Onto travel restrictions post the 31/12/2020 terms, the vineyard owner told of many stories where folk had been turned round off the boats and sent back to the U.K.

One was asked about all his camera equipment. His reply was that he’d an assignment to carry out for a work colleague. When asked where his visa was, he was dumbfounded. He was refused entry. Rookie mistake for sure.

Plenty of other stories similarly. Those travelling in vans are more likely to get stopped as there’s an implication they’re carrying out a trade, even if they’re only doing up they’re own place, or empty it of easily resaleable stuff, when returning to the U.K. until their next trip.

Divide and conquer. Conquer and divide. Political or more physical battles do one or other, sometimes both.

Those affected by change most will relate their stories of reduced freedom/flexibility and rightly so. It’s free speech.

What wouldn’t a skilled opposition give for a Tory funded body’s own goal re the drag on GDP, as a result of the agreement that they negotiated?

Oh wait!
so the french are pulling over vans with uk plates and even if the drivers have a french address they are deporting them if they have tools in the back?  I feel any questions raised by our politiciAns about this should be aimed at france and their heavy handed approach not at the current uk govt tbh. Also the french govt authorities seizing uk ships and threatening to cut power supplies is hardly the act of a friendly neighbour. France appear to be talking tough and imo we should respond in kind. If france want to act the bully we should  do what you do with any bully give them a smack on the nose
Since the New Year, if you’re going to work in the EU, you need a visa.

No visa equals go home.

Simple. It’s what the majority voted for. 

Vans imply work. Cars don’t. Customs officers over here do just the same. Police frequently stopped French registered cars if they felt like it, even when free movement was allowed.

Equally simple.

Tough stuff won’t solve everything. Collaboration and respect is required, too. It’s what your Pauillac supply and their export receipts depend on.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RR1972 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 October 2021 at 10:55pm
Originally posted by Eastern outpost Eastern outpost wrote:

Originally posted by RR1972 RR1972 wrote:

Originally posted by Eastern outpost Eastern outpost wrote:

We went to a vineyard here this morning. A couple (of Brits) who’ve been here awhile, pioneered Bio (organic) processes, which are now becoming the way to work because of all the health issues arising from the pesticides etc used on the vineyards (and other agricultural enterprises, too, no doubt). One vineyard owner got cancer and immediately changed direction to go organic.

Wine analysis is done to test for trace elements. There are well over 50 noxious ingredients that can be tested for. While listed in chemical formula or other names, those in the know say, “Oh DDT”. 

Must say, it made me think about what wine to buy.

Onto travel restrictions post the 31/12/2020 terms, the vineyard owner told of many stories where folk had been turned round off the boats and sent back to the U.K.

One was asked about all his camera equipment. His reply was that he’d an assignment to carry out for a work colleague. When asked where his visa was, he was dumbfounded. He was refused entry. Rookie mistake for sure.

Plenty of other stories similarly. Those travelling in vans are more likely to get stopped as there’s an implication they’re carrying out a trade, even if they’re only doing up they’re own place, or empty it of easily resaleable stuff, when returning to the U.K. until their next trip.

Divide and conquer. Conquer and divide. Political or more physical battles do one or other, sometimes both.

Those affected by change most will relate their stories of reduced freedom/flexibility and rightly so. It’s free speech.

What wouldn’t a skilled opposition give for a Tory funded body’s own goal re the drag on GDP, as a result of the agreement that they negotiated?

Oh wait!
so the french are pulling over vans with uk plates and even if the drivers have a french address they are deporting them if they have tools in the back?  I feel any questions raised by our politiciAns about this should be aimed at france and their heavy handed approach not at the current uk govt tbh. Also the french govt authorities seizing uk ships and threatening to cut power supplies is hardly the act of a friendly neighbour. France appear to be talking tough and imo we should respond in kind. If france want to act the bully we should  do what you do with any bully give them a smack on the nose
Since the New Year, if you’re going to work in the EU, you need a visa.

No visa equals go home.

Simple. It’s what the majority voted for. 

Vans imply work. Cars don’t. Customs officers over here do just the same. Police frequently stopped French registered cars if they felt like it, even when free movement was allowed.

Equally simple.

Tough stuff won’t solve everything. Collaboration and respect is required, too. It’s what your Pauillac supply and their export receipts depend on.
toucheSmile then again there is always rioja Wink
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote GPR - Rochester Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 October 2021 at 8:07am
Originally posted by Eastern outpost Eastern outpost wrote:

Originally posted by RR1972 RR1972 wrote:

Originally posted by Eastern outpost Eastern outpost wrote:

We went to a vineyard here this morning. A couple (of Brits) who’ve been here awhile, pioneered Bio (organic) processes, which are now becoming the way to work because of all the health issues arising from the pesticides etc used on the vineyards (and other agricultural enterprises, too, no doubt). One vineyard owner got cancer and immediately changed direction to go organic.

Wine analysis is done to test for trace elements. There are well over 50 noxious ingredients that can be tested for. While listed in chemical formula or other names, those in the know say, “Oh DDT”. 

Must say, it made me think about what wine to buy.

Onto travel restrictions post the 31/12/2020 terms, the vineyard owner told of many stories where folk had been turned round off the boats and sent back to the U.K.

One was asked about all his camera equipment. His reply was that he’d an assignment to carry out for a work colleague. When asked where his visa was, he was dumbfounded. He was refused entry. Rookie mistake for sure.

Plenty of other stories similarly. Those travelling in vans are more likely to get stopped as there’s an implication they’re carrying out a trade, even if they’re only doing up they’re own place, or empty it of easily resaleable stuff, when returning to the U.K. until their next trip.

Divide and conquer. Conquer and divide. Political or more physical battles do one or other, sometimes both.

Those affected by change most will relate their stories of reduced freedom/flexibility and rightly so. It’s free speech.

What wouldn’t a skilled opposition give for a Tory funded body’s own goal re the drag on GDP, as a result of the agreement that they negotiated?

Oh wait!
so the french are pulling over vans with uk plates and even if the drivers have a french address they are deporting them if they have tools in the back?  I feel any questions raised by our politiciAns about this should be aimed at france and their heavy handed approach not at the current uk govt tbh. Also the french govt authorities seizing uk ships and threatening to cut power supplies is hardly the act of a friendly neighbour. France appear to be talking tough and imo we should respond in kind. If france want to act the bully we should  do what you do with any bully give them a smack on the nose
Since the New Year, if you’re going to work in the EU, you need a visa.

No visa equals go home.

Simple. It’s what the majority voted for. 

Vans imply work. Cars don’t. Customs officers over here do just the same. Police frequently stopped French registered cars if they felt like it, even when free movement was allowed.

Equally simple.

Tough stuff won’t solve everything. Collaboration and respect is required, too. It’s what your Pauillac supply and their export receipts depend on.

So are you suggesting that obtaining a visa is difficult? If it is how come there are so many people travelling happily & easily to many parts of the World and have been for many years. You talk of collaboration & respect - I totally agree. However you fail to really offer any criticism of the French seizure of a British fishing vessel or indeed of the continuing threat by the French to cut off Jersey's power. If Putin threatened to cut off gas supplies to the French I think we may see a little different response from the French and the French supporters in Britain.

I am with RR - fight fire with fire. Any complicated agreement like the UK Withdrawal Agreement will have teething problems. It really is pretty disingenuous to suggest that any government, regardless of political creed, would not have been faced with similar issues; it is also wrong to suggest that the teething problems are all down to one side. Frankly the examples given of people experiencing issues travelling to France post Brexit are all explained by one thing - total lack of preparation by those affected. 

It really comes across as pretty rich criticism from individuals who clearly have managed to visit areas of France dear to them despite all the huge hurdles that Brexit have caused which to date, according to my understanding, amounts to a larger vet bill for the family pet. If & when the power gets cut off to Jersey families then perhaps that extra vet's bill will be seen for what it is - nothing to comment on in the whole scheme of things in reality. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 October 2021 at 11:30am
There's also a French election in April so "targeting" Brexit Britain is a fairly cost-free way of appeasing the French nationalist voters - many of whom are migrating towards Zemmour, who also dislikes Britain. 

So if the existing authorities make life hard for Brexit Britain or, Brits in France, swing voters are less likely to swing away from Macron towards Zemmour.
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